Jamie Dimon is optimistic about the American economy, at least for the next few years.
Dimon, the long-time CEO and chairman of JPMorgan Chase, sees strong growth ahead for the world’s largest economy, thanks to the US government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic that has left many behind. Consumers full of savings, according to their annual letter to shareholders.
“I have no doubt that with excess savings, new stimulus savings, huge deficit spending, more QE, a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine, and euphoria towards the end of the pandemic, it is likely that the US economy picks up, “Dimon said in the letter. “This boom could easily reach 2023 because all the spending could extend well into 2023.”
Dimon, who managed JPMorgan during the 2008 financial crisis, helping to create the largest US bank by assets, noted that the magnitude of public spending during the pandemic far exceeds the response to the previous crisis. The long-term impact of the reopening boom won’t be known for a few years, he said, because it will take time to determine the quality of government spending, including the $ 2 trillion infrastructure bill proposed by President Joe Biden.
“Spending wisely will create more economic opportunity for everyone,” he said.
Dimon, 65, weighed in on a variety of topics familiar to watchers of the nation’s most prominent banker: He promoted JPMorgan’s efforts to create economic opportunities for Americans left behind, highlighted threats to dominance from American banks. by fintech and Big Tech players and gave his opinion on public policy and the role of corporations in helping bring about change.
While Dimon called stock market valuations “quite high,” he said a multi-year boom may justify current levels, because markets are pricing in economic growth and excessive savings making their way into stocks. He said there was “some foam and speculation” in parts of the market, but did not say where exactly.
“On the contrary, in this boom scenario it is difficult to justify the price of US debt (most people consider the 10-year bond as the key benchmark for US debt),” said Dimon. “This is due to two factors: first, the enormous supply of debt that must be absorbed; and second, the reasonable possibility that an increase in inflation is not only temporary.”
While he is optimistic for the immediate future of the economy, there are serious challenges ahead for the United States, Dimon said. The country has been tested before, although the conflicts began with the Civil War, the Great Depression and the social upheaval of the 1960s and 1970s, he said.
“In each case, the power and resistance of the United States strengthened our position in the world, particularly relative to our main international competitors,” said Dimon. “This time it may be different.”
Last year highlighted the challenges for American institutions, elected officials and families as our country’s rivals see a “nation torn and paralyzed by politics, as well as racial and income inequality, and a country incapable of coordinate government policies (fiscal, monetary, industrial, regulatory) in any coherent way to achieve national objectives. “
Ultimately, the country needs to “go beyond our personal differences and interests and act for the common good,” Dimon said. “The good news is that this can be fixed.”
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