Government, Germany sees Italy already outside the euro
Germany begins to see Italy out of the euro. "Out of money or we go out: this could be the threat of the future Italian government": to say today at the Wirtschaftswoche is the economist Hans-Werner Sinn, former president of the Ifo economic institute and usually very critical voice towards the countries of the South Europe. "If Germany were to oppose giving away money or giving further guarantees to future generations, it is high that Italy will give up the euro," Sinn continued. "The political revolution is postponed not neutralized", thundered the hawk of the German economists
Merkel worried about the government, meeting with Draghi
In Berlin and Brussels there is concern. It is no coincidence that the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, will meet Angela Merkel on Tuesday. Spokesman Steffen Seibert said this, making it clear that this is one of the usual exchanges with the Chancellor, which take place on a confidential basis. "They meet from time to time for an exchange of views and of course this concerns the situation in the eurozone," he said.
Germany prepares plan B: euro without Italy
Germany is already preparing its "plan B". If Italy, with a possible M5S-Lega government, were to follow up on the threats that have been hurled here and there in recent days, then all the EU's "arsenal", starting from the ESM, would be used to isolate and protect "contagion" the most exposed countries. Daniel Gros, a German economist and director of Ceps, a European think tank based in Brussels, explained this to Adnkronos. Moreover, he notes, "the markets have already isolated Italy: just look at the spreads of Italy compared to those in Spain." There is a huge difference ". Italy is at 270 basis points, with a 10-year yield at 2.92%, while Spain, with the fall of the Rajoy government, is less than half, at 126, and pays 1.57%. For Brussels "for now the problem does not arise, because we still hope for a miracle, but in Germany we are preparing for Plan B". It would be to say that "if Matteo Salvini and Paolo Savona do what they wanted to do, it would really be about isolating the Italian problem from the rest of the euro zone". In other words, "it means that the whole arsenal we have, starting with the ESM, should be used to protect Spain, Portugal and other countries from being infected".
Germany gives all the blame to Italy
The economic situation of Italy, continues the director of the Ceps, "is objectively good: it is a choice of Italian politics to create this problem.In this case, it is clear that the solidarity mechanisms can not be triggered ". Of course, "if you come to negotiate, a lot is possible". If Italy, or another country, is able to say that there is "an objective economic reason that pushes to ask this and that, then a compromise is often found." The problem is that in the current situation, we can not to say that the rules of the eurozone are particularly stringent or prevent Italy from growing ". The Italian economy is recovering, albeit with difficulty: "There is modest growth, a surplus of current accounts, a deficit under control, debt that is almost falling: what reason is there to say that Italy now he has to spend a lot more? "adds Gros. All logical, but the voters on 4 March were expressed in another way and the first parties to the government, who have applied more or less the EU recipes, have suffered a blow of votes: "I do not agree on the starting point – he replies – Italy has followed the rules with delay, and with some degree of freedom, saying at all times that 'we have been forced and we would be much better if we could spend much more'. " In general, Gros continues, in some countries "public opinion has accepted the fact that the crisis was above all the responsibility for errors in national politics: I am thinking of Ireland, Spain and Portugal.These countries have overcome the crisis. in which the narrative is that it is all the fault of the euro, of Merkel and of the ECB, and I think of Italy and Greece, in other words, it is clear that then the reforms do not work ". But in the meantime, Merkel seems to be preparing a future EU with the eventuality of Italy outside the eurozone.