In Pennsylvania, Biden benefits from women with bigger benefits: POLL


A National ABC / Post poll released on Sunday shows nearly voters 54 to 45% support Biden over Trump. The result includes about 2 to 1 Biden leads in populated Philadelphia suburbs, home to about a quarter of voters, and close results in northeastern and western Pennsylvania, leaving only the state’s conservative center Trump unequivocally.

See PDF for complete results, charts and tables.

2020 vote september

Trump’s main task, however, is to reject the majority of his first-term performances. As seen nationally, his overall job approval rating in Pennsylvania is 43 to 55%, approved-rejected. And it is 42 to 57% to deal with the epidemic.

Trump approved

A 2016 inning minimizes Trump’s difficulty. Potential voters in this poll who report voting four years ago say they supported Trump by 50 to 47% over Hillary Clinton – close to the actual result, 48 to 47%. Today, Clinton voters support Biden by 98 to 1%, but Trump slips, with his 2016 supporters split from 92 to 8%.

Like all pre-election elections, this survey measures current priorities among projected potential voters; Either or both can change. For example, it is an open question whether Sunday’s New York Times reported on Trump’s tax returns – the day after the interview was completed – had no effect.

Trump has ammunition in this poll, drawn to the ABC by Langer Research Associates: a 20-point gain in strong enthusiasm among his supporters, 53% approval to handle the economy, solid support in his base And a clear leadership for voters who make plans to cast their votes in person on election day.

That said, Biden’s lack of enthusiasm for antipathy toward Trump may be counteracted. Pennsylvania registered voters who disapprove of strong approval by 17 percentage points, 49 to 32%, strengthening the president’s job performance. It is the same at the national level.

In addition, Biden could get some energy from the pending replacement of Justice Ruth Beder Ginsburg in the US Supreme Court. Unlike the current curriculum of Trump and his party, 53% of the state’s registered voters say the seat should be filled by the election winner and the next Senate, not by Trump and the current Senate. In addition, 61% of Biden’s supporters say the issue is more important to them that Biden wins; Less than 41% of Trump supporters say the same about their candidate. The national results, again, are almost identical.

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One difference in Pennsylvania is that large numbers of registered voters plan to vote on Election Day – 65% (and 67% of potential voters), compared to 45% of registered voters in the national electorate. It has also been lower, though in other ABC / Post surveys this month, dropping to 59% in Minnesota and 51% in Wisconsin, 38% in Florida, and 33% in Arizona.

This could be the case: Intended Election Day voters by 60 to 39% favored Trump over Biden. Those who plan to vote on the contrary, prefer Biden by a notable 87 to 13%. Ensuring that early and absentee votes are cast and counted is a central concern for the Biden campaign.

Prefer by desired vote method

The issues

Unlike some elections, in which the same issue dominates, a mix of concerns is in play. Twenty-five percent of Pennsylvania registered voters cite the economy as the top score; For 18%, it is epidemic. Twelve to 14% choose the same treatment as crime and security, racial groups or health care. Nine percent say this is the next appointment to the High Court.

Trump and Biden run two of these, the economy – 49 to 48%, Trump-Biden – and crime and security – 50 to 47%, almost equally in trust to handle Biden-Trump. This is Biden +9 points on the next Supreme Court appointment, +14 points on dealing with the epidemic, +17 points on health care and +20 points in trust to handle the same treatment as racial groups.

Even with an almost head-to-head match on the economy, potential voters who cite the economy as the most important issue in their vote-back Trump ranged from 84 to 16%; This and crime and security are his best issues. Those who focus on epidemic backs range from 93 to 5%, and he leads a wide gap between those who cite health care and equal treatment.

Thoughts on current issues

As noted, views on the economy, protests against pandemics and police malpractice are all important – the perspectives on each of these are an independent statistical model controlling for bias, ideology, race / ethnicity and other demographic variables Let’s guess the candidate’s choice.

This is also reflected in direct vote-preference results: Biden leads by 69 points among those who rate the economy negatively, 73 points among those supporting the protests, and in each case coronovirus-majority groups 51 points among those worried about catching. Trump leads with a wide margin among his opponents.

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Geographically, women, college-educated and moderate voters are key elements of Biden’s support.

Democrats take 61 to 38% among women, while men divide more closely, 53 to 46% Trump-Biden, a wide 30-point gender gap. Among whites only, men favor Trump by 60 to 39%, while white women support Biden from 56 to 43%.

The gap is narrow in the suburbs, but notably, given that suburban residents have six out of 10 potential voters in the state. Race is essentially a dead heat in suburban men – 51 to 49%, Trump-Biden – while it is 59 to 41%, Biden-Trump, among suburban women. Which produces an overall result in the suburbs of 54 to 45%, matching statewide races.

Regional, Biden leads in the Philadelphia suburbs by 69 to 31%, compared to Clinton’s 55 to 42% four years ago. Biden also improved on Clinton’s results in western Pennsylvania, while races in other areas of the state are higher than they were four years ago.

Trump cruises among conservatives with 87% support, as does Biden, 92% among liberals. Moderate is split by a wide margin in favor of 63 to 35% of Biden, with another wide gender gap. Biden’s +7 points among liberal men, +47 among moderate women, a difference of 40 points.

Other divisions are also widespread. Among potential voters who have not gone beyond high school, this is Trump’s +18 mark; Among those with a college degree, Biden +29. And it is about Trump-Biden, 51 to 48%, even among whites, while Biden leads by a wide gap between racial and ethnic minorities.

The change since 2016 is particularly telling among college-educated whites. In ABC News’s exit poll four years ago in Pennsylvania, the group was split evenly, 48 to 48%. Today, 61 to 38% of college-educated whites support Biden in the electorate. Which includes 63 to 35% of the race among college-educated white women. But here, there is a big shift among college-educated whites. He had supported Trump 56 to 39% in 2016. Today it is almost the reverse, with Biden 57 to 42% in favor.

Mechanism

This ABC News / Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone interviews 21–26, 2020 among a random sample of 702 Pennsylvania registered voters and 567 potential voters. The results have a sampling error of 4.5 points among registered voters and 5.0 points among potential voters. The partisan divide – Democrat-Republican-Independent – is 38–32–23% among registered voters and 39–34–21% among likely voters.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Abbott Associates of Rockville, Maryland. See details on the methodology of the survey here.

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