“This is one of the reasons that I am very much stagnant on the prospects of Donald Trump in Pennsylvania. I think he will win again, and I think he will win by more votes than he did in 2016, ”said Charlie Gerow, a Harrisburg-based Republican strategist who has worked on the state’s presidential campaign. “Trump is doing what Ronald Reagan did 40 years ago, moving into the very Republican column of traditional Democrats.”
The GOP has also seen a massive increase compared to Democrats in Pennsylvania in three key areas: Erie, Luzerne and Northampton counties, all of which helped Trump support the state after supporting former President Barack Obama in 2012 Had.
Overall, registered Democrats are now 47 percent of the state’s electorate, down from 49 percent in September 2016. Republicans comprise 39 percent, up from 38 percent four years ago. Many party officials Trump credited himself for narrowing the gap.
Northampton County Republican Party President Gloria Lee Snover said “it’s Trump, Trump, Trump”. When he signed the voters, he said, “They’re like, ‘Oh, I want to be in the Trump party.” It is funny in a way. … I like, ‘You mean the Republican Party?’ They are like, ‘Oh, yes.’
Leading the 2016 election – where Hillary Clinton lost the state by less than one percentage point – Republicans registered more net voters in key areas of northeast Pennsylvania. But instead of feeling the sentiment of many Democrats, many Democrats said they are not concerned about the trend affecting presidential results.
They see the numbers as a backward indicator that distracts the party with new voters and independents in the state. The biggest innings in recent years in Pennsylvania, he said, are Democrats gaining electoral gains since 2016, especially in the suburbs.
Democratic consultant JJ Balaban in Pennsylvania said, “It probably means less than the eye.” “The reason for believing that Shift is mostly ‘Democrats’, who have not been voting for Democrats for a long time, choosing to re-register as Republicans.”
Republicans across the state said they have benefited in recent months from the fact that the Trump campaign, which has tried to reduce the Kovid-19 epidemic, is knocking at the door and registering voters in person is.
Joe Biden’s team has so far avoided door-knocking in an effort to protect employees and voters from the virus, although local Democratic groups in the state have held some social-perverse events to sign voters.
Some Democrats said that presented a challenge. The party has also spent significant resources on informing voters how to vote by mail, in another year, which could have been invested in other areas, such as voter registration.
Jason Henry, executive director of the Democratic Party of Pennsylvania, said, “Look, I’ll be real: the epidemic has thrown a gap in things.” “Our focus has truly been on educating voters on the new vote-by-mail laws.”
Luzerne County Democratic Party President Kathy Bozinski said it is particularly difficult to register college students because of the epidemic.
“There’s no question that young voters reach out to colleges – I mean, that’s impossible,” she said. “We have colleges back in our area and Kovid picks up and they go virtual after 10 days. It’s really problematic and unfortunate.”
However, the Biden campaign said it has registered more than 3.4 million voters as part of its general outreach in the past three months. Democratic county parties have held some voter registration events outside churches and community centers. The Trump campaign and the state GOP said they have prioritized voter registration, as well as encouraging voters to switch parties.
Republicans have made the largest raw net gains in Westmoreland and Washington counties – both located in the western part of the state where Trump’s support is deep – as well as Luzerne. Although they have lost statewide, Democrats have netted more registered voters in the suburbs of Philadelphia than the GOP over the past four years. In fact, Montgomery, Chester, Delaware, and Bucks County, along with the city of Philadelphia, are the top five regions where they have promoted registration.
The trends in voter registration in Pennsylvania have been the subject of debate between the two major parties. Tom Bonnier, CEO of Democratic data firm TargetSmart, recently sent an email to newspaper subscribers and journalists titled, “Claims about PO voters not correct. Why here.”
He said in the message that Democrats have signed about 415,000 new voters since the 2016 election, while about 282,000 by Republicans, according to an analysis of the state’s voter file. However, he said that voters do not have the numbers, who have switched parties.
Bonnier also argued that Democratic-controlled local governments cleaned their voter files more rigorously than voters run by Republicans, and voters who registered disproportionately likely to have Democratic leanings . For those Democrats or Independents registered as Republicans, they said it is an indicator.
“There are many truths. The undeniable truth, on the one hand, is that … Democratic voter registration gains in Pennsylvania have undeniably narrowed, ” Bonnier said in an interview. “At the same time, undeniably, Democrats have registered more voters at the same time than Republicans.”
Pennsylvania Republican Party leader Lawrence Tabes said Democrats are making excuses.
“If I were them, I would say that I think voter registration is some kind of problem. You too,” he said. “After this extra edge of newly registered Republicans from the Democratic base, these are the people who will be Are going to vote. These people are committed. “