Here’s why there is some hope to control the Kovid epidemic

But some experts say that there is hope.

Vaccines, spring season and, unsurprisingly, high numbers of all infections lead to optimism, Drs. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital in Philadelphia and a member of the US Food and Drug Administration’s Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, said Wednesday.

Also there is an expectation that the incoming Biden administration will handle things better than the Trump administration.

While the “terrible” numbers are likely to worsen for the next few months, Offit believes the US could stop the spread of the virus by June.

Offit believes that things are “going to get dramatically better soon.”

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The two Kovid vaccines licensed for use under the Emergency Use Authority in the US are “remarkably effective,” Offit said.

Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, agreed. “We can see a light at the end of the tunnel,” he said adding the vaccines “show us the way forward.”

States are still struggling to get vaccines in people’s arms. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, only about 35% of vaccines distributed to states are given to people. And the US government’s Operation Tana Speed ​​has only managed to ship around 10 million doses to state and local governments – half promised to end and deliver it by 2020.

“It’s still not there by any means. There’s still a lot of work to do to get the vaccination program up and running,” Benjamin said.

But the number of people getting vaccinated is steadily increasing. States have, on average, passed 500,000 vaccinations a day – something that convinces Benjamin that the country can reach one million a day, if it is higher.

Two more vaccines – from Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca – “are right around the corner,” Offit said. According to Benjamin, these options will “dramatically increase” the available vaccines.
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Incoming administration

The office is also hopeful about the upcoming Biden administration, noting that President-Elect Joe Biden’s team is not in this cult of “surrounded by the Trump administration’s coronovirus response”, and “will take this problem forward.”

Benjamin believes the Biden team will make more use of the Defense Production Act to ensure that there is a stable, reliable supply of vaccines. He also looks forward to a better coordinated, all-government response.

Senior scholar of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and an infectious disease physician. Amesh Adalja praised the Biden administration’s plan to increase the availability of at-home testing, re-join the World Health Organization and reinstate epidemic staff in national security. Council

He also hopes that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will function under independent administration. Adalja said, “On the fact that we are unable to actually control this epidemic, because the CDC has not been able to function the way it does during an emergency of infectious diseases.”

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Hot weather

“The weather will be warmer when the weather gets warmer, which makes it much more difficult for this virus,” Offit said. When it is hot and humid, the virus, which is spread by small droplets, should spread less easily, he said.

Benjamin also mentioned that people can spend more time outdoors when the weather is warm across America. People can live apart when they are outside and are not sharing the same air – so the virus has less opportunity to pass from one person to another.

“The virus will make it difficult for a person to move around, especially when people are doing outdoor activities in the summer,” said Adalja.

“We didn’t really see seasonality this summer because there were a lot of people who were not immune to the virus,” he said. “Even in summer weather conditions, (the virus) still found it very easy to infect new people.”

Increased immunity

Another reason for optimism is the possibility of a large number of Americans who have become infected and now have some immunity to the virus, Offit said.

While 23 million have been diagnosed and reported, the number is small. Many people have asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic infections and were never tested. Offit said the number of people infected is probably close to 65 or 70 million.

“That’s 20% of the population, when they re-uncover this virus, they are not going to get sick with it,” he said. It is unclear how long immunity persists after infection, but studies have indicated that it is at least eight or nine months and probably longer.

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If another 55 to 60% of the population can be vaccinated – something that Offit has said can be done from one million to one and a half million a day – “then I really think that by June we will be spreading This virus can stop. ”

Benjamin agreed.

“History has told us that these things go away. And you have to do something to overcome them,” Benjamin said. “Even in 1918, 1919, people became infected and tragically the world had to go through it. We achieved some kind of balance, the herd resistance increased and it was over.”

Caution notes

“I think there is a tremendous possibility that this epidemic will end in 2021, before the end of the year, perhaps even before autumn,” spokesman for the Infectious Diseases Society of America and the chairman of the department, Dr. Aaron Glatt said. Medication at Mount Sinai South Nassau.

“But it certainly will not be found that if the vaccine is not delivered, or is forbidden in heaven, the vaccine does not work in the future, as well.”

An anesthesiologist from the Keek School of Medicine of the University of Southern California, Drs. Sunny Jha is also cautious.

Jha said, “If we can increase the numbers, if we can get rid of hesitation, if we can eliminate disinfection, misinformation, I think I’m a lot more optimistic.”

“But if you’re asking me if I think we’re on track for the summer, then based on what I’m seeing now, I don’t think we’ll be there.”

“I’m cautiously optimistic, I guess,” he said. “I think we have the right mindset. I think we will be in a better position if we eliminate the inhibitions.”


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