Here’s how Goldman says the S&P 500 will react to more US-China tariffs and the November election result is significant

Fresh hopes for another stimulus package and signs of an outbreak to boost stocks on Tuesday may slow. President Donald Trump signed executive orders over the weekend, removing payroll taxes and expanding unemployment benefits, but investors hoped negotiations would resume on a larger rescue package.
Trump suggested that he was considering capital gains tax cuts and tax cuts for “middle-income” earners.

The dispute over the video-sharing app Tickcock led to escalation between the US and China through sanctions and Hong Kong sanctions, now seemingly taking a back seat to it.
In our Phone of the day, Goldman Sachs analysts mapped the expected responses of key assets to various trade-wise scenarios, including higher tariffs. The estimates are based on an analysis of seven tariff announcements aimed at China in 2019, three of which are intensified and four are tariff risk mitigators.

He said that an unexpected $ 10 billion increase in US tariffs on China would lead to a 1.2% drop in the S&P 500 and a 2.2% drop in Chinese equity, while the US dollar would rise 0.7% against the yuan. The 1.2% drop in the S&P 500 itself was larger than the tariff threat, he said, adding that a $ 10 billion increase in US tariffs would only be 0.5% of corporate profits.
There was a disgruntled response to the perceived threat of Chinese retaliation and broader risks to trade policy. Conversely, a $ 30 billion decrease in tariff revenue would increase the S&P 500 by an estimated 4%.
Analysts Dominic Wilson and Vicky Chang said the projections could be used to benchmark the potential impact of Joe Biden’s presidency in Trump’s second term.
“A second Trump term is likely to continue, and perhaps increase, fear of an increase in ongoing tariffs, especially given the decline in US-China relations over the past few months,” he said. said.
“While a Biden presidency is unlikely to improve the outlook for a broader US-China relationship, it is less likely that a new administration would regard tariff threats as a” weapon of choice “and instead favor a multilateral approach Can take, ”he said.
Goldman said the anticipated effects were due to trade policy alone, but also said trade policy changes under Biden could alleviate pressure on US stocks from potential corporate tax changes.
This chart by Fundstrat Global Advisors shows that daily affairs in the US continue to decline week-by-week, with Monday being the lowest in six weeks and the lowest since June 29.

Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project and Fundstrat.

The insider compared the portion sizes between KFC food in the US and those in the UK

Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,
+ 1.30%
It closed 357.96 points, or 1.3%, on Monday – the index’s seventh straight day – and was scheduled to make a profit again on Tuesday. Dow Futures YM00,
+ 1.11%
Were up 1% in early trading, a 278-point increase in the open. S&P 500 SPX,
+ 0.27%
Nasdaq futures NQ00, while futures were 0.6% higher, was set to add to its seven-day win streak.
It is also 0.4% higher. European shares initially dipped on US stimulus expectations early on Tuesday and indicated the virus was spreading, with the pan-European Stokes 600 SXPP,
+ 1.84%
Rising 1.7%.
The buzz
Trump said his coronovirus-assisted executive orders gained a stock market edge Monday at a news conference interrupted by shootings outside the White House.
Russia registered the world’s first Kovid-19 vaccine, President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday, on a valuation spree that exacerbated security concerns in West Asia.
Uber Uber,
And Lyft LYFT,
+ 2.84%
A California judge ruled on Monday that new state law should classify its drivers as employees rather than contractors. The ruling threatens the business models of ride companies, which have indicated that they intend to appeal.
Automobile sales in China rose for the fourth straight month in July, climbing 16.4%, due to strong demand for commercial vehicles and government incentives.
Japanese group Softbank SFTBY,
+ 0.92%
The first quarter posted a $ 12 billion profit, bounced back from a full-year loss of $ 9 billion – the worst result in the company’s history.
UK employment fell by 220,000 in the three months since 2009, its largest quarter since 2009, and the number of working hours fell to record levels.
Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city, will be closed from Wednesday afternoon after four new coronovirus cases were revealed.
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Discovered stunning ‘reverse waterfall’ near Sydney.
England’s first wild beaver in 400 years wins a five-year battle to stay at home.
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