Here history says what happens to US stocks in a close election race, regardless of the winner, Deutsche Bank says



After Monday’s rally, US stocks rose slightly on Tuesday, despite the US-China increasing tension on Tickcock.

President Donald Trump said that Ticketok will “close” in the US on September 15, until Microsoft MSFT,
-1.66%
Or another company purchases a Chinese-owned video-sharing app. Trump also suggested that the US government should get a share of the sale proceeds. Chinese state media described the potential sale as “theft” and could go ahead if Beijing could overtake the “smash and grab” of Tikotok, Washington.

With increased tensions, investors have a lot to keep an eye on, including the economic recovery, the earnings season, and the upcoming US election.
In our Phone of the day, Deutsche Bank global chief strategist Binky Chadha said in a close election, US stocks usually rally after the outcome, regardless of the winner.

  "Close Elections" in post-10 elections, including all of the last five - defined as elections where elections were consistently tight or widely fluctuating, with unpredictable results - on average Followed by year-end by 5% rally.  Bank strategists said.
  He said, "There were no predictable election results, historically close polls have seen pavements closed in July;  Again a vigorous rally after a clear victory, which is independent of the won, ”Banda said in a note.
  He said the pattern reflects a "classic buildup of uncertainty-risk premiums" at which the candidate is better suited to equity market prospects.
  The team said that a wide expansion in the elections in the November election would cause a market rally, but if it gets closer we may see a sale.
  Former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, has increased his lead over Trump in elections in recent months.  In several elections, Biden took a double-digit lead nationally in head-to-head contests against Trump, as well as leading in swing states.
  Despite Biden's leadership, Deutsche Bank said the election could still be considered predictable and close.  Voting is only slightly wider than at some point in the 2016 election, the team said, and the sharp widening in Biden's favor occurred over a short period, which raises the question of whether it will be reversible or sustained. .
   The team said the COVID-19 epidemic and the increased volume of mail-in ballots posed risks to achieve "quick and clear" results in November and may remain volatile after the election.
  He said, "But the equity volume curve, with a sharp kink according to the election, is pricing in the traditional electoral playbook and we will be buyers of November and December volumes."  ''
  The corporate tax hike, one of Biden's policies, has historically not been a significant negative catalyst for equity, he noted.
  Strategists said that over the years with unforeseen results, a candidate leads in consecutive elections - including 1984, 1988, 1992 and 1996, with the stock market trending slightly during election day.
  <strong>market</strong>
  After a rally of 0.9% or 236 points at the beginning of the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, 
    <bg-quote field="percentchange" format="0,000.00%" channel="/zigman2/quotes/210598065/realtime" class="positive">+ 0.13%</bg-quote>
  Recovering from an early loss was flat in early trade.  S&P 500 rose 0.1% and Nasdaq Composite Comp, 
    <bg-quote field="percentchange" format="0,000.00%" channel="/zigman2/quotes/210598365/realtime" class="positive">+ 0.10%</bg-quote>
  As the technology rally continued, it climbed 0.3% to set a new intraday record after posting closing records on Monday.  European stocks were mixed, as manufacturing figures had raised hopes of a huge economic recovery, but corporate earnings disappointed.  Building on the strong close to Wall Street, the Asian market advanced overnight.
  <strong>The buzz</strong>
  Oil giant bp bp, 
    <bg-quote field="percentchange" format="0,000.00%" channel="/zigman2/quotes/202286639/delayed" class="positive">+ 6.42%</bg-quote>
  Reduced its dividend for the first time in a decade, reported a loss of $ 16.8 billion in the second quarter after oil demand fell and prices fell.  BP also revealed a new green strategy, including a 10-fold increase in low-carbon investment by 2030.  The stock climbed 6% in early trading.
  Bayer Bain, 
    <bg-quote field="percentchange" format="0,000.00%" channel="/zigman2/quotes/210533053/delayed" class="negative">-2.97%</bg-quote>
  The second quarter saw a € 9.5 billion ($ 11.2 billion) loss, as the German chemicals company set aside provisions related to lawsuits, claiming that its Weidkiller roundup caused cancer.  The company reached a $ 10.9 billion settlement on the claims, which it has consistently denied in June.
  Beverage giant Diageo DGE, 
    <bg-quote field="percentchange" format="0,000.00%" channel="/zigman2/quotes/205611832/delayed" class="negative">-5.22%</bg-quote>
  The 8.4% decline in net sales over the full year reported more than expected, as the epidemic hit spirits demand. 
  Social network company Twitter TWTR, 
    <bg-quote field="percentchange" format="0,000.00%" channel="/zigman2/quotes/203180645/composite" class="positive">+ 0.24%</bg-quote>
  On Monday, it was warned that users could be fined up to $ 250 million from the Federal Trade Commission for using personal security data to target advertisements. 
  <strong>Random read</strong>
  Three people were rescued from a small Pacific island after writing SOS in the sand.
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