Goldman Sachs sees big pickup in oil demand this summer

Goldman Sachs remains bullish on oil and anticipates strong demand that would require OPEC + to put another 2 million barrels per day (bpd) on the market in the third quarter, following the around 2 million bpd that the alliance and Saudi Arabia decided to return between May. and July.

“We forecast a larger rebound in oil demand this summer than OPEC and the IEA, requiring an additional 2 mb / d increase in OPEC + production from July to October,” Goldman Sachs was quoted as saying. CN cable.

The investment bank expects excess oil inventories to normalize by fall 2021.

Last week’s agreement with OPEC + to ease the cuts “comes a month earlier than we expected,” says Goldman Sachs, noting that the increases for June and July are lower than their analysts had anticipated.

OPEC + decided on Thursday to gradually increase collective oil production by more than 1 million bpd over the next three months. The group will increase its production by 350,000 bpd in May and June and by more than 400,000 bpd in July. Additionally, Saudi Arabia will also gradually ease its additional 1 million bpd unilateral cut over the course of the next few months, starting with monthly production increases of 250,000 bpd in May and June.

Goldman Sachs continues to hold a bullish view on oil demand, despite recent concerns about demand in Europe and India, which sent oil prices down 2 percent early Monday.

In early March, Goldman Sachs said it expected Brent crude prices to hit $ 80 a barrel in the third quarter of this year, $ 5 more compared to the previous forecast issued two weeks earlier.

Even after the oil sell-off in mid-March, Goldman called the “big breather” an oil buying opportunity and continued to forecast that Brent would hit $ 80 a barrel in the summer.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for

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