EXCHANGE POINTS – CRUDE AND GOLD OIL PRICES
- Gold prices may change from the strength of the chart as market sentiment increases
- The soft retail sales report in the United States could limit movement to the fall as the Fed's outlook faded
Gold prices rose as market sentiment soured in late North American trade on Friday, prompting capital to flee to relative bond security of the Treasury and depressed yields. That offered a family boost to assets without interest personified by the yellow metal.
The move may have marked a "de-risk" before the weekend as markets weighed tensions on Syria and the seemingly increasing pressure on the White House since Special Advisor Robert Mueller . It is investigating possible links between the Trump campaign and Russian interference in the 2016 elections.
Crude oil prices rose slightly but did not make substantial progress, producing a fifth consecutive increase but also trading the daily profit smallest of the series. Volumes in the most recent WTI contract fell to a minimum of one week, perhaps signaling the reluctance of operators to participate as geopolitical risk heats up.
SYRIA, UNITED STATES DRILLING AND RETAIL SALES SALES IN FOCUS
From here, excerpts from the  Kuwait Oil and Gas Summit can inform bets on the extent to which a ] Levant increasingly volatile affects the global supply. OPEC Secretary General Barkindo could try to allay fears that the conflict between the Iranian and Saudi Arabian representatives could hamper coordinated efforts to reduce production.
Meanwhile, the EIA will publish monthly drilling productivity statistics. If they suggest that the expansion of EE extraction. UU Opaque the impact of disruptions linked geopolitically, crude oil prices could fall. The Baker Hughes data puts the number of active oil platforms in a maximum of three years last week.
As for gold, it may go down as investors' mood lights up despite Western military action against Syrian targets over the weekend. S & P 500 futures point strongly to the upside, suggesting that bond yields may increase against a "general risk" context.
US Retail Sales data is expected. UU (19659006) show additional income of 0.4 percent in March, breaking a three-month losing streak. A disappointing result that reflects a recent deterioration relative to the forecasts in the economic news flow of EE. UU It could cool Fed rate hikes and limit downward tracking.
See our quarterly gold forecast to know what will drive prices mid-year!
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The nascent improvement in gold prices has been verified by family resistance in the area 1353.87-57.50 (double top, descending trend line). A daily close above this barrier exposes the July 2016 high at 1375.15. Alternatively, a short turn below short-term bullish support, now at 1335.11, would open the door to another range support challenge at 1307.25.
TECHNICAL CRUDE OIL ANALYSIS
Crude prices are stagnating in a cluster of critical resistance in the area of 66.63-67.49 (January 25th high, upper channel rise, 38.2% of the Fibonacci expansion ). A daily close above that exposes the 50% level to 70.38. Alternatively, a movement below 23.6% Fib at 63.90 is directed to the channel floor at 62.45.
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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