The U.S. labor market accelerated in March as the nation moved forward in an effort to put the pandemic on the rear-view mirror.
Economists project that a government report will show the largest increase in employment in months as vaccines increase and economic activity recovers, including robust manufacturing. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists is that the unemployment rate will drop to 6% as nonfarm payrolls rise by 643,000.
Policymakers, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed confidence last week in the path of the rebound in the labor market.
While the central bank expects unemployment to decline to 4.5% by year-end, a relatively dovish forecast, Powell emphasized the “highly desirable outcome” of the expansion in labor force participation. Meanwhile, Yellen said supplemental unemployment assistance probably wouldn’t be needed later this year.
More than 2 million Americans are getting vaccinated every day, and President Joe Biden has said that states should do all adults eligible for a vaccine by May 1. At the same time, many states are easing restrictions on businesses and activities. The most frequent data released last week also labor market recovery, as applications for regular unemployment insurance fell to a pandemic low.
Other parts of the economy have already reached or even exceeded pre-pandemic levels. After a lot of Positive regional manufacturing data points, the Institute for Supply Management Factory Index, released Thursday, will take a look at the state of the sector in March. In February, it reached a three-year high.
What Bloomberg Economics says:
“Economic data has already started to move vigorously ahead of relaxed social distancing measures, broad vaccinations and the latest round of fiscal stimulus. From retail activity to industrial production, signs of a sharp re-acceleration have been increasingly abundant in recent months. Still, the March employment report will mark a turning point, where the economy is clearly shifting at a much faster rate of growth, one that has not been seen in a generation. “
–Carl Riccadonna, Yelena Shulyatyeva, Andrew Husby, and Eliza Winger. For a complete analysis, Click here
Biden will present his longest-term economic program, dubbed Build Back Better, spanning infrastructure and technology investments to a tax code revamp to help address growing income inequality. Before Biden’s Pittsburgh speech, his aides prepared $ 3 trillion worth of proposals, according to people familiar with the matter.
Elsewhere, efforts will intensify to move a giant ship stuck in the Suez Canal that threatens to hamper supply chains by blocking a crucial commercial artery of the world economy. The World Trade Organization reveals new forecasts for world trade and the central banks of Kenya, Angola and Chile set rates.
Click here to see what happened last week and below is our roundup of what’s to come in the global economy.
From China Wednesday’s March PMI reading is Asia’s biggest release of the week, and economists are expecting a rebound in activity after a pullback earlier in the year. Regional reports follow the next day.
The Bank of Japan will release a summary of its talks on Monday. Most important meeting in 4 1/2 years. The comments will be closely scrutinized to see which measures might still be subject to further change and for more details on the reasons behind the changes.
February unemployment, production and retail sales data will show how much strain Japan’s economy was under at the height of its recent state of emergency. The BOJ’s Tankan business survey on Thursday is likely to indicate that large manufacturers are reaching a threshold of optimism after the emergency lifted and with the recovery in world trade.
South korean Export data for the entire month of March should give the last indication of how strong that recovery is.
Europe, Middle East, Africa
With continental Europe still struggling to get its vaccine program up and running and fighting new coronavirus outbreaks, euro zone inflation and economic confidence data will show the state of recovery. Final PMI data is likely to confirm that German manufacturing increased to record pace in March.
In the United Kingdom, House price data and components of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter are established to provide a snapshot of the economic rebound.
Kenya’s central bank will likely maintain its key interest rate unchanged for the seventh meeting in a row on Monday as the country reports increases in Covid-19 cases and inflation is at a 10-month high.
Angola’s central bank, which last moved interest rates in May 2019, will also hold, as it seeks to support the economy and moderate inflation by adjusting the amount of currency in circulation, rather than through rates. of interest.
Russia, Botswana and Mauritius report GDP figures for the fourth quarter of the week.
Brazil’s benchmark consumer price index is above target and the benchmark the central bank is catching up. Figures released Tuesday will likely show the March reading of the country’s broadest measure of inflation approaching an all-time high.
Argentina’s economic activity for January should show a ninth consecutive monthly gain. After 9.9% GDP drop last year, the economy may expand up to 7% in 2021.
The Central Bank of Chile is in no rush to adjust, especially with Santiago, home to about 40% of the population, in isolation. Analysts expect the key rate to remain at a record low of 0.50% on Tuesday. Later in the week, Chile’s unemployment rate likely moved a bit closer to single digits and economic activity may have posted a year-on-year gain in January.
It is very likely that the employment data for January in Brazil will look like part of a K-shaped recovery: gains in formal sector employment in the face of a rise in overall unemployment with millions still out of the workforce.
For evidence that Brazil’s recovery is faltering, look no further than January industrial production data released Thursday. The monthly and yearly figures should be positive, but only barely.
– With the help of Benjamin Harvey, Malcolm Scott and Chris Anstey