Friday’s jobs report will be released on a closed stock market; that has only happened 12 times since 1980


Good Friday is next week and the markets will be closed as usual. What will be unusual, however, is that the shutdown of financial exchanges in the US and some other parts of the world comes as the government is scheduled to release a key report on employment amid a pandemic.

Why is the stock market closed while federal data is released? That’s because Good Friday, this year April 2, is not a federal holiday.

It is quite rare for the government to release an important piece of data, as market participants cannot react to it.

And it has only happened 12 times since 1980, according to Dow Jones Market Data, and the last time it happened in 2015, and before that it happened in 2012 and 2010.

Year

Dates on which nonfarm payrolls were posted on Good Friday

1980

April 4

1983

April 1st

1985

5th of April

1988

April 1st

1994

April 1st

nineteen ninety six

5th of April

1999

April 2nd

2007

6 of April

2010

April 2nd

2012

6 of April

2015.

April 3

2021

April 2 (scheduled)

Source: Dow Jones Market Data

The employment report is arguably the granddaddy of economic reporting, outside of GDP, but its importance has been amplified by the pandemic, particularly as market participants seek more evidence on the magnitude of the one-year rally toward one of worst public health crises in a century.

The latest employment report will come as investors are unclear to what extent the labor market and / or economy could fully recover, or even overheat, which could force the Federal Reserve to act quickly to cut inflation out of the box. Control, with vaccine launches and some $ 1.9 trillion in fresh tax aid have helped prop up the economy.

Fed chief Jerome Powell has tried to pacify jittery markets by emphasizing that the central bank will take a slow approach to normalizing policy, which is forecast to be within years.

National Securities chief market strategist Art Hogan told MarketWatch that it may be good if the jobs report is released when the market is closed.

“Having the weekend to digest this news and gauge what this means for economic expansion can be a good thing for the market,” Hogan said.

A year ago, US non-farm payrolls fell by 663,000 in March, while the unemployment rate jumped to a 26-year high of 8.5% from 8.1%.

The 2021 jobs report for March is expected to show a gain of 655,000 by some estimates, after payroll data showed unemployment fell to 6.2% when 379,000 jobs were added in February, marking the biggest gain of this type in four months.

Some time may be warranted to pause financial markets, Hogan says, because the economy still has a long way to go to achieve a healthy recovery.

“We still have maybe nine million people out of the workforce. We are going to need some levels of box office success to reach pre-pandemic levels, ”said the analyst, who estimates that the economy would have to average about 750,000 jobs a month to reach post-COVID levels.

“It would take us two years, so we really need to start increasing those numbers,” he said.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,
+ 1.39%,
the S&P 500 SPX index,
+ 1.66%,
the Nasdaq COMP Composite Index,
+ 1.24%
and the Russell 2000 small-cap RUT index,
+ 1.76%
It ended sharply higher, after a hectic week of trading that ended with a late-session flourish.

To be sure, it will be difficult to say how robust the trading action will be on the Monday after Good Friday, because a number of global exchanges will be closed in observance of Easter Monday.

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