Morgan Stanley’s analysis shows that Tesla’s share of the US electric vehicle market fell to 69% in February, down from 81% a year earlier.
Tesla’s sales in the US continue to rise, according to this analysis, due to the increased appetite among US car buyers for electric vehicles. Morgan Stanley estimates that industry-wide electric vehicle sales in the United States increased 34% in February compared to the previous year, even as sales of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles fell 5.4%, according to the analysis.
Tesla (TSLA) reports only global quarterly sales, not monthly or US sales like many other automakers do. Tesla likely enjoyed a 5.4% increase in US sales in February, according to Morgan Stanley analysis.
New electric offerings from traditional automakers resulted in their combined US electric vehicle sales more than doubled to 9,527 vehicles. And the Ford Mach-E, which won SUV of the Year honors this year and began deliveries in late January, accounted for 3,739 February sales, according to figures from Ford (F).
“Mach-E accounted for almost 100% of the [Tesla] stock loss, “Adam Jonas, an automotive analyst at Morgan Stanley, said in a note earlier this week.
Other experts said they also believe that Tesla is losing some of its share of the electric vehicle market.
“We’ve been waiting for this for a while,” said Michelle Krebs, a senior analyst at AutoTrader. “Tesla was the only game in town. Now it is not. We expect Tesla sales to increase as the market increases, but there will also be a theft of Tesla’s market share.”
A Ford spokesman declined to comment directly on Morgan Stanley’s analysis. The company said that 70% of Mach-E buyers were new to Ford, making the car that much more valuable to the automaker. More than 20% of Mach-E’s sales were made in California, where Tesla is particularly popular.
Tesla faces competition from automakers such as Porsche, BMW, Audi and Jaguar for its luxury Model S sedan and Model X SUV, along with competition from Chevrolet, Hyundai, Kia, Volkswagen, Nissan and now Ford for its sedan. Lower priced Model 3 and Model Y SUV.
But the Model 3 and Model Y are now the mainstay of Tesla’s sales, accounting for about 90% of its global sales in the fourth quarter.
Tesla did not respond to a request for comment on Morgan Stanley’s analysis.
Tesla has already been left behind Volkswagen (VLKAF), the world’s second-largest automaker, in electric vehicle sales in many European markets, including Norway, where electric vehicles now account for the majority of new vehicle sales.
And faces new competition from General motors (GM), which just introduced a compact SUV version of its American electric vehicle, the Chevrolet Bolt. The Bolt EUV will go on sale in early summer, along with a new version of the current Bolt hatchback. Both will be priced lower than the Model 3 and Model Y.
And this is just the beginning of a wave of new electric vehicles promised by traditional automakers for years to come. Volvo announced this week that it will offer only electric vehicles by 2030, while Ford said it will sell only electric passenger vehicles in Europe by 2030. GM said it expects to sell only emission-free vehicles by 2035.
The aggressive targets on electric vehicles are driven both by stricter environmental regulations around the world and the growing appetite for electric vehicles among buyers.
And while electric vehicles are now more expensive to build than comparable gasoline engines, improvements in economies of scale will likely lower the cost of parts, including large batteries, which it is less expensive and therefore more profitable to build electric vehicles. Electric vehicles have fewer moving parts and, according to a Ford estimate, require 30% fewer man-hours to assemble than traditional cars.