Experts say that the coronavirus epidemic is likely to worsen before it gets better

The offices before the epidemic will look very different in the future, but when will they all reopen?

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For the most up-to-date news and information about the coronovirus epidemic, visit the WHO website.

With more than 24 million known infections worldwide and a death toll of close to 1 million every day, this may seem like the end. Coronavirus The epidemic is nowhere in sight. There are teams of scientists from all over the world Working on dozens of vaccine candidates, With at least one manufacturer – Pfizer – says it hopes to distribute the vaccine in the US before the end of the year. But if one or more vaccines can receive FDA approval before 2021, it is scheduled to occur at least a year before epidemic control according to some experts.

This can be a problem, as the US has never actually reduced the stage of new infections, and experts say existing signs point to worsening before the situation gets better.

Infectious Disease Specialist of America Dr. “We need to get down and get through this fall and winter, because it’s not easy,” said Anthony Fauci. “Never, never underestimate the potential of an epidemic,” he said. “And don’t try and look at the pink side of things.”

Director of the Institute of Health Metrics and Director Drs. Reported that during domestic travel, using masks and pushing and dropping people in winter, “we see that we are very lethal in terms of the toll of coronovirus.” Evaluation dr. Christopher Murray told CNN. According to the IHME computer model, the number of deaths in the US could double in the next four months.

Here you need to know about the current state of coronovirus epidemic which is in decline. This story is updated frequently and is intended to provide background information, not just medical advice.

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Why do coronavirus cases go up and down so much?

“This is like a forest fire, full steam ahead,” said renowned epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, who directs the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “And wherever there’s human wood to burn, it’ll do it. What we see, though, are these spikes in cases where [lockdowns] Expired, or they are not following them. ”

At one time, approximately 90% of people in the US were under some sort of lockdown order and the curves began to flatten. But all of this began to change in the second half of April, when some states began loosening lockdown restrictions. By June, most countries had almost completely reopened. Not long afterward, new cases began to rise once again.

Epidemiologists have identified a strong relationship between lockdown and case levels. Basically, wherever you look, cases fall when the order for the lockdown is issued – and shoot back shortly after the ban begins. The only thing that hinders this trend is how well the population of an area follows disease prevention measures. Wear a face mask And Restrict social events.

“We’re still in the first wave,” Vanderbilt epidemiologist Lorraine Lipworth told the Washington Post. “As we ease restrictions, there is always going to be a resurgence of cases. It’s not like this is a new wave of viruses.”

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Although some have blamed the increase in new cases on extended testing, the rate of positivity is increasing rapidly which may account for the test alone.

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Why are experts worried about coronovirus in the fall?

Most public health experts – including Fauci and CDC director Robert Redfield, have said they make a big prediction about this fall and winter. The White House has acknowledged that it is preparing for the possibility. However, part of that prediction was based on the assumption that the virus would slow down in summer, which does not appear to be the case.

Much of the attention targeted at the collapse has now shifted to concern over the possibility of two potentially deadly viruses circulating at the same time – COVID-19 and seasonal flu, the latter of which killed about 40,000 people in the US per year She goes. Because of something Overlapping features In the form of fever and cough, it can be difficult for individuals and doctors to determine which infection you have.

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As the decline continues, the flu season is also increasing, which experts warn could complicate the public health response to the coronovirus epidemic.

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“The real risk is that we’re going to have two circulating respiratory pathogens at the same time,” Redfield warned when he spoke to Time magazine about the upcoming flu season. Furthermore, if severe COVID-19 infection advances hospitals on their own strength and capabilities, caring for potentially toxic flu patients can also be difficult.

The CDC is seeking drug manufacturing companies to produce more than a million doses of the flu vaccine this year, which is higher than the normal demand. Typically, less than half of all US adults take the flu vaccine in any given year, but for adults over 65, the rate rises to nearly two in three, the CDC identified as a population is High risk for more severe COVID-19 infection.

Are we headed for another lockdown?

Fauci, former director of the CDC’s public health prepared office, and Drs. Ali Khan has said that it is possible to avoid complete lockdown, but there are situations.

States should test effectively for coronaviruses and follow that test with contact tracing. And people have to change their behavior to make social discrimination and façade a part of daily life. Only then will it be possible to level the curve without reverting to full-blown lockdown. Otherwise, as new cases are skyrocketing, “your only option is to shut down,” Khan said.

Park closed due to coronavirus

A yo-yo effect of reopening and closing is possible until a vaccine is delivered.

Jessica Dolcourt / CNET

More than likely, we will see that different levels of lockdown come and go in different areas, depending on where the virus flies and dies, as long as A. Coronavirus vaccine Is found and distributed. Nevertheless, we may not be clear yet.

“We will deal with this virus forever. Effective and safe vaccines and hopefully some sustainability, will be very important, even important tools, in fighting it,” Osterholm said. “But the whole world is about to experience COVID-19 by the end of time.”

Learn more about coronovirus here Coronavirus vaccine development, What to do if you or someone living with you COVID-19 goes And How to take precautions for coronovirus discharge this summer.