But many experts in the survey also believe that vaccine development will happen at an accelerated rate.
Experts working in the field of vaccine development believe that an effective vaccine is unlikely to be available to the general public before the fall of 2021. In a letter published this week Journal of General Internal MedicineThe McGill-led team published the results of a recent survey of 28 experts working in vaccinology.
The survey was done in late June 2020. The majority of those polled were Canadian or American academics with an average of 25 years of experience.
“Experts in our survey offered forecasts on vaccine development that were generally less optimistic than those introduced by US public officials in early 2021. In general, they believe that a publicly available vaccine next summer The best case with this possibility is that it could happen by 2022, ”said Jonathan Kimmelman, a James McGill professor and director of the Biomedical Ethics Unit at McGill University. And senior author on the paper.
Many experts also believe that some false onset may occur before an effective vaccine is available. “The surveys we’ve surveyed believe that 1 in 3 chance that the vaccine will receive a safety warning label after approval, and 4 in 10 have a chance that the first large field study will not report efficacy Will, ”said Patrick Kane, lead writer, who is a decision scientist and postdoctoral fellow at McGill.
Predicting timelines for vaccine development
Experts were asked to forecast the time for three milestones in vaccine development. In particular, the experts were asked to The best, earliest, and latest Estimates for when each of the following milestones will occur:
- Question– When will a vaccine be available to the general public in the United States and / or Canada?
Best guess = September / October 2021 (Average)
soonest = June 2021 (average)
Latest = July 2022 (Average)
- Question– When will a field study with at least 5000 participants produce results?
Best guess = March 2021 (average)
soonest = December 2020 (average)
Latest = July 2021 (Average)
- Question– When will a vaccine be available for those most at risk from the virus in the United States and / or Canada?
Best guess = March / April 2021 (Average)
soonest = February 2021 (average)
Latest = December 2021 (Average)
Researchers believe that such an approach, where people are asked to suggest a range of responses, provides a more complete picture of the extent of expert belief than media citations from individuals.
Chance of failures
The study also showed that 1/3 of the people surveyed believe that the vaccine is likely to face development that may suffer the following failures:
- The first vaccine widely deployed in the USA and / or Canada will receive a boxed warning from the FDA to highlight serious or life-threatening adverse reactions; or
- The first large field trial in the United States and / or Canada would report a null or negative result in terms of efficacy.
“Our study shows that experts are mainly agreed about the timeline SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine, “says Stephen Brummel, an associate professor at the Dietrich College of Humanities and Social Sciences at Carnegie Mellon University.” While this does not keep track with too many optimistic government projections, it does reflect an assumption that the researchers did in fact last Are at a faster pace of development than vaccines. ”
Reference: “Expert Forecast COVID-19 Vaccine Development Timeline “by Patrick Bodily Kane, Hannah Moyer, Amanda McPherson, Jessie Papenberg, Brian J. Ward, Stephen B. Brummel, and Jonathan Kimelman, 28 September 2020, Journal of General Internal Medicine.
DOI: 10.1007 / s11606-020-06244-9
Funding: McGill Interdisciplinary Initiative in Infection and Immunity Research Grants.