Experts say COVID-19 deaths generally correspond to “normal” age-related risk patterns
Death from COVID-19 Equivalent to 5 weeks extra risk for those over 55 and just 2 extra days for schoolchildren.
Statistician David Spiegelgler states that the statistics of deaths from Kovid-19 reflect a relationship with age that matches the “normal” age-related risk of death from all other causes. BMJ Today (September 9, 2020).
Their conclusion is based on analysis of death certificate data for England and Wales for a period of 16 weeks (112 days) between 7 March and 26 June 2020.
For the general population over the age of 55, he calculates that the risk of dying and then dying from Kovid-19 during this time was equivalent to experiencing an additional risk of five weeks above the normal risk of “normal” death.
This risk continued to decrease for school children above the “normal” annual risk for only two additional days.
For those over 55 who are infected with Kovid-19, they suggest that the additional risk of dying is slightly higher than the “normal” risk of death from all other causes in one year, and less than that for those under 55. is.
He demonstrates that the mortality rate during this 16-week period was approximately 12–13% higher for each year, doubling for every five to six years of age, and this relationship is consistent from childhood to old age. Over 90 people with Kovid-19 died in this period, while 1 in 2,300,000 schoolchildren aged between 5 and 14 died.
He writes that it is difficult to convey the vast range of individual mortality rates from Kovid-19 experienced by people of different ages, but he points out that their response to people in terms of risk is those of “normal” risk Can help understand and manage.
He points out that this analysis refers to being average on the population, and although age is highly effectively affected by mortality, clearly other factors, such as a pre-existing medical condition, affect individual risk.
He also stated that they observe historical rates in the population and cannot be cited as a future risk of Kovid-19 and dying.
Nevertheless, they concluded that general risk “appears to be a reasonable comparator to explain both population and infection fatal risks, although any public facing tool requires careful evaluation to be included, particularly In light of growing concerns about the long-term effects of the transition from. ”
He says, it should always be remembered that these are risks to the person. “There is still a responsibility to consider the potential risks that one person may cause to others.”
Reference: “Using ‘normal’ risk to understand the dangers of Kovid-19” 9 September 2020, BMJ.
DOI: 10.1136 / bmj.m3259