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ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan becomes bitter about the US economy UU., Growth


One of Wall Street's veteran economic forecasters is toning down his forecast for economic growth.

Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute told CNBC that his main indicators point to a slowdown that is gaining momentum, highlighting a particular trend in the latest table of unemployment rates that supports his case.

"What really caught our attention is the unemployment rate, where it's flat since October," the firm's operations director said on CNBC on "Commercial Nation."

He affirmed that it does not fit into the narrative of the strong growth story of the United States.

His thoughts came when the Dow Jones industrial average was in the process of closing in correction territory, about 10 percent of its historic high. He believes that Wall Street is finally beginning to realize that the economy is no longer so strong.

Achuthan is not the only one. The investment chief of Guggenheim sees a difficult path for the market and the economy, with a strong recession and a 40 percent drop in stocks.

Scott Minerd, who warned customers in a recent note that the market is on a collision course with disaster, "he told CNBC on Friday that he expects the worst of the damage to begin in late 2019 and 2020. Together With the fall of the shares, an increase in the transferable securities of corporate bonds is likely as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and pay record levels of debt.

"When we see what the curtain can be In the background of all the nervousness that is going on, we would point to an antiquated slowdown in the economy that is coming to people's radar at the moment, "Achuthan said.

But do not confuse Achuthan for being permanently bearish. "super bull" after the presidential elections of 2016, when the talk of the recession was heating up.

"Last fall, the same main indicators that anticipated growth synchronized world that we all enjoyed last year in 2017, delivered, "he added.

He is not asking for the economy to fall soon. But with each passing month without an increase in growth, Achuthan warns that the economy will be less equipped to deal with a negative shock as a potential trade war. So, he is urging stock investors to be vigilant.

Achuthan's recommended retail investors should consider buying 10-year Treasury bonds the next time yields reach 3 percent, as leverage against downside risks.

– Jeff from CNBC Cox contributed to this article


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