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Donald Trump – guardian of the promises

The need to live up to that image helps explain why Trump, who is under increasing pressure from Russian research, acknowledged Jerusalem as the capital of Israel despite the risks widely recognized.

"When I entered office, I promised to see the challenges of the world with open eyes and a very fresh thought," Trump said in the opening words of a speech on Wednesday that described a sharp change in Israel's policy.

"We can not solve our problems by doing the same failed assumptions and repeat the same failed strategies of the past," he said.

It has also fulfilled its broader and more conceptual promise of being a disruptive force in Washington and around the world. American enemies now lack the comfort of a predictable adversary, as do national adversaries and their allies.

So far, the President has not paid a tangible price for complying with his most controversial promises. But you're risking a lot, especially at the international level, and you can still get the count.

Washington has yet to know if the backlash between its allies over Trump's latest declaration will leave her in an hour of need. Anyway, Trump supporters who believe in its America First concept care little about the President infuriating the country's friends around the world.

  Trump recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel

Trump has also kept his word in other areas.

As promised, he has moved to renegotiate NAFTA, withdrew from the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, abandoned the Paris climate agreement, pointed to Iran's nuclear agreement and introduced a travel ban for residents of some nations Muslim majority, while adopting other radical immigration policies.

Trump promised to preside over economic growth and establish a rising stock market. Gross domestic product expanded 3.3% in the third quarter, a maximum of three years, and the Dow barely exceeded 24,000 points.

The White House message is that Trump is fulfilling his promise to shake things up. [19659002] "Although the previous presidents have made this a great campaign promise, they have not been able to fulfill it, today I am fulfilling," said the President.

Trump's re-election campaign jumped into the narrative of a president who is as good as his word.

"Once again, President Trump has demonstrated the kind of leadership that Washington does not recognize or understand … with Donald Trump a promise made is a promise fulfilled," said campaign executive director Michael Glassner. 19659002]

More than meets the eye

But with the presidency, things are rarely cut and dried. There is a reason why Trump was making his way in Jerusalem: previous presidents judged that the political capital they could win with a similar movement was not justified by the risks. These have included concerns of inciting violence in the Middle East or of offending the Palestinians by prejudging peace talks about Jerusalem, a city they also consider their future capital.

The fate of Americans abroad, easy targets in any violent reaction in the Middle East, also weighs on presidential consciousnesses. Trump decided to take the risk anyway.

Critics may also point out that Trump's list of promises kept is incomplete and politically convenient.

He has tended to honor promises that inflame his populist creed or please key constituencies such as evangelicals and rich donors, including casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, who had a keen interest in Jerusalem.

But Trump has pressed on some of his most complex promises. He barely gave him health insurance "for everyone" as he said he would. The GOP tax plan, according to multiple independent studies, reduces access to health care and helps Trump's wealthy friends more than his working-class supporters.

  Trump's decision in Jerusalem promises upset

He also promised to get tough on China in trade. But that did not materialize when he seeks Beijing's help in the nuclear crisis in North Korea.

Trump's haste to keep promises, including his decision to break the derailment of the agreement with Iran – he refused to certify Iran's compliance in October – his advertisements for a travel ban that seems to stigmatize Muslims and their challenge to the global consensus on climate change may reflect deeper political forces.

Russia's research cloud is getting thicker while its approval rating is at 35%. And until the tax law of the Republican Party is approved, it has few legislative achievements. That means that Trump has never needed his followers more. And CNN's Kevin Liptak reported this week that the president is worried about losing the political base without which he would throw away all political viability.

All that may explain why he was willing to accept the risks of his movement in Jerusalem, which could stifle his Israeli-Palestinian peace unity of administration, unite US allies. UU in Europe and the Middle East against him, and triggers extremism or reprisals against US citizens and interests.

In that light, its movement seems less a great gesture of a rare promise-maintaining the policy of a cynical act of political calculation.

Polarization of nature

The polarizing nature of the Trump movement was reflected in the responses of two veteran former US officials immersed in Middle East politics.

Elliott Abrams, who served on George W. Bush's national security council, said the president's decision was an acknowledgment of the reality that Jerusalem is considered by Israel as its capital, and mocked the predictions of that the president could incite an uprising as "completely exaggerated."

"There are intifadas among the Palestinians when the Palestinian Authority permits and encourages it," Abrams said on CNN.

But Aaron David Miller, a Middle East peace negotiator for Republican presidents and Democrats, said Trump was prioritizing his own political expediency over broader security interests.

"This had nothing, in my opinion, to do with the search for peace between Israelis and Palestinians," Miller told CNN.

"This seems to be a political statement from a determined volunteer President, A, to deliver and basically say to those who say:" You can not do it, you would not do it and you should not do it, "for Say, I can meet. "

It is not the first time that Trump has challenged international opinion to make such a point: his movements on climate and Iran fit into the same category.

But the cost of those movements could be less immediate than any reaction of the Jerusalem bet.

The disadvantage of abandoning the fight against climate change, sea level rise and devastated weather patterns, may be decades in the future; the loss of the influence of EE UU in China ceded upon leaving the TPP is intangible at this time for American voters; If NAFTA collapses, the economic consequences may not immediately be felt.

But the fact that the President has not paid a price does not yet mean that it will not happen.

And it is also possible, if he is lucky, that the president trusts his decisions more, belittles the advice of the establishment's allies and advisers and is more tempted to give vent to his instincts.

Such behavior could have implications for the North Korean crisis, as experts and allies warn of the consequences of a war on the peninsula that for a long time was considered too frightening to contemplate.

Trump says that the isolated state can not threaten the United States with a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead, a prospect that is only a few months away from becoming a reality.

And the President is beginning to fulfill his promises.

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