Democrats ruled Washington. 5 reasons they may not be able to hang on.

WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden and the new Democratic Congress were just sworn in, but the clock has started on the midterm elections of 2022, when voters will decide whether to allow the president to pursue his agenda with a friendly congress for two years Get more time than or not.

Democrats will have to defend a narrow 221–211 majority in the House (218 seats are required to control) and 50–50 Senate, where a party will incur the cost of the chamber if a single seat is lost.

History is not on their side. Americans typically kept a check on power, and the President’s party lost House seats in almost every midterm since the 1930s. They usually suffer major losses in their first midterm.

“In 2020, House Republicans won 28 of the 29 most competitive districts by exposing the exact job-killing policies Job Biden enacted during the first week in his office,” Michael Republikms, National Republican Congressional Committee, A spokesman for the campaign branch said. House of GOP. “If the House Democrats thought 2020 was bad, then they are not prepared for the 2022 cycle.”

A recent exception to that historical trend was 2002, when the country rallied around President George W. Bush in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks, and his GOP increased seats.

Democrats now hope that if Biden can succeed in fighting a different crisis – the Kovid-19 epidemic – and Democrats knock the doors after stopping for the epidemic, voters will reward him.

“Organize, organize, organize,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison said on Friday at MSNBC. That’s how we moved history forward and won two by-elections in Georgia. “

It is far too early, and there are more questions than answers about the next two years of American politics. Here are five big ones:

1. What does Trump do?

In his final public remarks as president, Donald Trump said he would “return in some form or the other.” Even after being impeached twice and banned from Twitter, Trump is quite popular among Republican voters and just 5 percent said he regretted voting for him after this month’s deadly insurgent riots in the Capitol.

Democrats have done their best when they can run against Trump on a ballot without him, such as in the 2018 midterms and Georgia Senate runoff, and say Republicans will have a harder time washing Trump’s hands after a democracy attack.

“It has become impossible for him to recruit and recruit the classic suburban country club Republican banker to run for Congress,” said Tyler Law, who works in the Democratic operative house. “Many people have forgotten their lewd comments in a few years. Americans will not forget the time they were raided by domestic terrorists in our Capitol’s Trump gear.”

2. What is a GOP?

Even if Trump decides to spend his time on the golf course, the Republican Party overtakes him, which is putting an internal moratorium on his influence and his future.

Trump helped juice turnout from the party’s shrinking base – he has won the president’s popular vote only once in 32 years – but going with him, some want to double down on Trumpism, while others want to move forward.

Republican strategist Matt Gorman, who served in the House race, said, “If something brutal, if not enrolled in the primaries for the Senate nomination, it’s going to be very competitive.”

Nevertheless, Republicans found themselves in a similar position after Barack Obama’s 2008 election and returned to victory in midterm, and Democrats did the same after Trump’s 2016 victory.

3. All about Aadhaar?

In the past, Democrats have found it difficult to get their support in non-presidential elections, and after four years of continuous protests and donations and worrying, party voters may be eager for a break from politics.

Republicans, meanwhile, face their challenge without Trump outing his base, and it can be tough if he stokes the sentiment that Republicans betrayed him.

Major corporations said they would cut donations due to the capital riot, at least for a while, and some of its biggest funds would die, like the National Rifle Association.

“Democrats have clearly cultivated their online donor base more than the Republic, but there was a lot of anger-donating against Trump,” said Cook Political Report analyst Jessica Taylor. “I am not sure you will have the anger of the Republicans, because Biden is not divisive in the same way.”

4. What about Biden?

Both Biden’s predecessors entered the White House with full control of Washington and faced almost immediate grassroots rebellion, which ended in “shelling” in medieval areas, as Obama memorably put it.

The women’s march was inspected just a day after Trump’s inauguration. And despite Obama beginning with an astronomical approval rating, in February 2009, a month after assuming office, the first time of the Tea Party rallies held in February 2009 saw conservative struggles.

Biden, strategists on both sides, are less divisive than Obama or Trump. And conservatives in a difficult time turn the president into a boogieman who, like Hillary Clinton, animates and infuriates his base.

Kovid-19 may make popular protests more difficult for the creation of sanctions – but the response to ongoing social distribution restrictions may also provide the spark around which a new movement catches fire.

Can Biden stop the epidemic and make the economy better, as he has promised? Will his administration face scams? Most do.

5. What does the map look like?

States are also redrawing their maps after a decade of census, so we do not yet know what the congressional districts will look like in 2022. Congress is projected to lose seats in some populous states such as New York, while others. Like booming Texas, hope to achieve something

“I think Republicans are positioned to remodel the House, but the $ 64,000 question is, ‘What does redistricting look like?”

Republicans have the upper hand in states after 2020, a disappointing year for Democrats proved to be a down-ballot, but after 2010 it did not disappear like it did the previous time.

Meanwhile, in the Senate, the map is set. Democrats have to defend the censor. Rafael Warnock, D-Ga. And Mark Kelly, D-series, who just won special elections, but had to run again to seek a full six-year term. He also has senators for re-election in New Hampshire and Nevada, which Biden only narrowly ran.

On the Republican side, Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Petty is retiring, a state left behind an open seat in Biden. Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, a staunch conservative, is up for re-election in another Biden state. And the GOP will also have to defend seats on the battlefield in North Carolina and Florida.

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