Although the figures are preliminary, they provide a window into Democratic enthusiasm before the election and provide a warning for Republicans. In order for Democrats to vote and bring in new supporters, Trump’s campaign is counting on a smooth Election Day voting campaign at a time when it faces an out-of-control epidemic and a growing cash crunch .
A GOP poller who specializes in data and analytics said “a ballot is a ballot, and someone takes a late campaign message or event out of the count”. “The bottom line is that this means that Biden is a lead in the mail and that the risk of something being wrong late is borne by Republicans because our voters have not yet voted.”
Republicans acknowledge that Democrats have established a leadership, although some insist it was early and compared it to a basketball team winning the initial tip-off. Trump’s allies argue that Democratic gains will make little difference in the end, stating that the opposing party is only exposing voters who otherwise would have voted on November 3.
He also noted that while Trump has repeatedly scrambled mail-in voting – virtually ensuring that most of his supporters cast ballots in person on election day – Democrats are heavily emphasizing this. An NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll released last month showed that nearly half of Biden’s supporters plan to vote by mail, compared to just a tenth of Trump supporters.
The Trump team points to special congressional elections in red-tinted elections in New York and Wisconsin districts earlier this year, where Republicans got caught up in absentee voting, but ended up with substantial gains among voters who voted in ballot polls Won both competitions.
“A majority of our voters like to vote for the person. Therefore, we hope to lag well behind absentee requests as Democrats make it their mission to push for all mail elections that bring fraud and chaos into the system. Republican National Committee spokesman Mike Reid said that you would vote for Democrats mainly by mail and our voters would come out to vote in-person.
But the data also shows that Democrats are attracting small but potentially significant numbers of new supporters that they fell short of in 2016.
In Pennsylvania, which Trump won just 44,000 votes four years ago, Democrats have led requests for nearly 100,000 ballots from voters who did not participate in the 2016 election, but according to TargetSmart data, this year Preparing to vote by mail. In Michigan, where Trump won by fewer than 11,000 votes (and where voters are not registered by the party), the firm’s model shows that Democratic-aligned voters among non-2016 voters benefited by about 20,000 people. Do, who sign up to receive the ballot. In Wisconsin, which Trump won by 22,000 votes, Democratic-leaning voters who left 2016 have made nearly 10,000 more requests for this election than their GOP counterparts.
Republicans are also encouraging supporters to vote absentee. Through telephone calls, digital advertising and mailers, he has inspired Trump backers to vote early or by mail. Meanwhile, supporters outside of America First Action are teaming up with Trump voters to make sure they are turning in their ballots.
Yet Trump – much to the frustration of senior Republicans – has undercut those efforts with repeated attacks on mail-in voting. The president has used his recent public appearances and his Twitter feed to dismiss sacking by mail as a process that cannot be trusted.
“This is a matter of what Trump really means much more than what his campaign did. The campaign has been working hard to get absent requests and, soon, returned; But Republicans are less likely to do so, with Trump repeatedly reinforcing mail voting, ”Wilson said.