According to a New York Times / Siena College poll on Tuesday, the president in Georgia has made a shift against Trump among White college-educated voters, as Republicans find themselves deadlocked or trailing in the Senate where their party was at one time . Considered a heavy favorite.
In the presidential race, Joe Biden and Mr. Trump were among 45 percent among likely voters unchanged from a Times / Siena election last month. But in the same period, Senator David Perdue has an edge against Democratic challenger John Osoff, while another Democrat, Rafael Warnock, has pulled ahead in a Senate special election, voting for a possible January runoff.
The findings are the latest indication that Democrats may be on the verge of realizing their often taut but elusive A Blue Georgia Dream. A victory there for Mr. Biden would make the president bid for re-election, and even a Senate victory could be the difference in giving Democrat control of the Senate. Trump’s campaign has cost millions of dollars often Uncontested The television advertisement to hold a state that he gave five percentage points in 2016, and the president visited the state last week.
The results show that his efforts have done little to turn the state in his favor, although this would have helped stabilize his numbers in Georgia as Mr. Biden has gained nationwide advantage. The election also saw some surprising gains for Mr. Trump among non-voters.
But as with the Sun Belt in general, presidential weakness among white college-educated voters has jeopardized Republican hold on a state where demographic shifts have already eroded the party’s lead. Over all, Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden among White college graduates by 12 percentage points, 52 percent to 40 percent. A 12-point leadership among this group would usually count as good news for the president, but not in Georgia, where Republicans traditionally count on a huge margin among white voters – with or without a college degree – To overwhelm a large part of the Democratic state. Black voters.
White college graduates in the poll said they supported Mr. Trump in 2016, 57 percent to 37 percent, which already represented a significant drop in Republican strength. According to Aptos’ estimates in 2012, Mitt Romney won nearly 80 percent of white college graduates, enough to win the state by eight points despite a record black turnout.
The president remains competitive due to the overwhelming support among white Georgians without a college degree. They retake Mr. Trump, 76–18, including a wide 83–13 lead among white voters without a degree in non-metropolitan counties.
Elections continue until 2020
Mr. Trump’s resilience among white voters without a degree defines the trend elsewhere in the country. National and battlefield elections show Mr Biden has made significant gains among the group, strengthening the president’s grip on the northern battlefield.
But there has been a notable exception to those in the Deep South Times / Siena poll. Mr. Trump retained the support of 96 percent of white voters without a college degree, who said they had voted for him four years earlier, in his prior surveys of Texas and Texas with 96 percent loyalty among white voters without degrees. High level matching was done. South Carolina.
Outside of the Deep South, Mr. Trump has a relatively low 89-5 lead among white voters who say he supported Mr. Trump in 2016.
As a result, Mr. Trump holds a 65–28 lead among white voters in Georgia, an advantage that may prove to be enough to win the president – which depends on Mr. Biden’s strength among non-voters.
The poll found that voters who identified themselves as black on their voter registration forms were ready to represent 29 percent of the electorate, up from 27.6 percent of their share in 2016 and 28.7 percent of their share in mid-2018. Were equal, but below their 30 percent share. Today and registered voters of 2008 and 2012 voters.
More than 0 percent of white voters said they were “almost certain” to vote with ers percent or had already done so, compared to 77 percent of black voters.
Voting is always a challenge for voters, and the results in no way supersede high or low black turnout. But the earliest early voting so far are at least consistent with the voters indicated by the poll, as black voters represent 31 percent of the early voters in Georgia, up from 27.8 percent of them among the early voters in 2016 and Equals to about 30.9 percent. In 2018.
The high black share of voters combined with gains among white college graduates should be enough for Mr. Biden to win the state, but the presidential chances in the survey are kept alive by gains among non-voters.
Overall, Mr. Biden led only 70–19 among non-voters, significantly weaker than any estimate of Hillary Clinton’s strength among the group four years earlier. Nonwhite respondents to the survey said they supported her 81–12 in 2016, and Mr Biden gained a comfortable edge in the survey if only she matched hers.
The margin of error on a subgroup of non-voter voters is significantly larger at plus or minus 6.8 percentage points, and it is possible that the president’s apparent strength is primarily due to the inevitable noise of small samples. But the results are consistent with the trend in national surveys that Mr. Trump performed better among non-voters than he did four years ago.
The margin of sampling error is a plus or minus 4.1 percentage points on the full sample of 759 potential voters in Georgia.
A stiff race was to be expected in the presidential race, but Republicans had long been thought to be clear favorites in the state’s two races. The poll found that Democrats have improved their positions since the Times / Siena election in September, when Republicans took the lead in both contests.
In the regularly scheduled Senate election, Mr. Ossoff is now tied with Mr. Percy at 43 percent. Mr. Purdue beat Mr. Ossoff by four percentage points, 41 percent to 37 percent a month ago.
The survey was conducted from October 13 to 19, and there was no immediate evidence of a change in Mr. Osoff’s favor after Mr. Perdue mocked the first name of Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Kamlesh Harris. 14.
Nevertheless, Mr Perdue’s favorability rating has dropped significantly since the last Times / Siena election in September, when 47 percent of voters held a favorable view of him and 34 percent had an unfavorable one. Now, Mr. Purdue’s rating is 44 percent favorable and 42 percent unfavorable.
Mr. Ossoff’s rating remains largely unchanged, with 44 percent holding a favorable view of him and 39 percent an unfavorable one, though voters are more familiar with him than in the previous month, when his rating was 39 percent favorable and 34 percent Was unfavorable.
If a candidate does not win 50 percent of the vote, the race will run until January 1, with the result potentially raising Libertarian candidate Shane Hazel. He polled 4 percent of the vote in September, down from 5 percent. If his support is through Election Day, he will either have to win at least four points to win the candidate outright and avoid a runoff. Pre-election elections have long outpaced the standing of minority-party candidates, and in a possible indication of this, Mr. Hazel has 2 percent of the vote among respondents who say they have already voted.
A special election for the US Senate is scheduled to run until January 1, but 50 percent also have no candidate. Mr. Warnock holds a comfortable 32–23 percent lead over Republican Kelly Loeffler, with Republican Doug Collins finishing third with 17 percent.
This is a significant change from the previous month, when Ms. Loeffler led 23 percent, while Mr. Collins and Mr. Warnock each finished 21st. Since then, Mr. Warnock has been endorsed by prominent Democratic celebrities, including Barack Obama, who helped establish himself as the Democratic front-runner in the race.
Mr. Warnak, the pastor and first-time political candidate, was the most popular candidate tested in the poll, with 46 percent reporting a favorable viewpoint and just 22 percent an unfavorable one. He appears poised to emerge from the November election, prominent in the January runoff.
In a fictional runoff matchup, Mr. Warnock led both Ms. Loeffler and Mr. Collins from 45 percent to 41 percent.
At this point, the GOP candidates have run for what amounts to a Republican primary campaign in their effort to win over most of Mr. Trump’s supporters and advance runoff. Ms. Loeffler in particular has fully embraced the president: Some of her ads say she is as conservative as Attila the Hun. One can expect greater party unity and benefit from the center axis when a candidate from the Republican Party is down.
They may do so well, but closing the gap will not be as simple as a reevaluation of the party: Mr. Warnock will hold a 49–45 lead over each candidate if unannounced voters based on their choice in the presidential race Was allocated.
Here are crosstabs for the pole.