"Danger!" Contestant James Holzhauer continues to break the records of the program.
If you have thought about the amazing 32 victories of James Holzhauer and almost $ 2.5 million in profits in Jeopardy!, Here is something else you should contemplate:
Strictly following the numbers available, that is, the data of their performances and those of hundreds of other recent contestants, Holzhauer is projected to win 98 more games.
That's the conclusion of Syracuse University sports badytics professors, Shane Sanders and Justin Ehrlich, who have applied probability theory to the information compiled in the official Jeopardy! website and a registry created by fans of the games and players of the program called J! Archive.
Sanders and Ehrlich have found a couple of other fun finds:
Holzhauer has a nearly 75% chance of breaking Ken Jennings' record of 74 wins.
At the start of any given match, there is a 99.3% chance of Holzhauer winning. Translated to the betting odds, you would get 141 to 1 for a bet against him.
Here's a bit of context about that in the sports world: the University of Maryland, Virginia's discomfort in Baltimore County at the NCAA basketball tournament of 2018 was a 20-to-1 proposition; The knockdown of Mike Tyson's heavyweight boxing was 42 to 1.
James Holzhauer (Photo: Carol Kaelson / Jeopardy Productions through AP)
Sanders and Ehrlich badyze the possibility that Holzhauer loses after having taken the Final Jeopardy round, and the possibility that he loses after having been in the Final Jeopardy round. (Mainly because there were very few links in Final Jeopardy during the period of the games studied before Holzhauer, the teachers considered the possibility of a tie as essentially zero).
What this does not take into account is the possibility that his opponents improve as he tries to defend his position. For example, according to Sanders and Ehrlich, opponents could learn a better timbre strategy. Or them He could use a more appropriate betting approach to adopt Holzhauer's aggressive tactics, which include jumping from category to category in search of Double Diaries instead of staying with one category at a time, as most participants have done.
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But it will not be easy.
Holzhauer has led to enter Jeopardy Final in all of his 32 matches.
In all but three of his games, his advantage in Final Jeopardy has been so great that even if his closest opponent had bet all his winnings up to that point and had provided a correct answer from Final Jeopardy, Holzhauer would have won without a correct answer as as long as his final bet was not greater than the amount of his advantage.
And, by the way, Holzhauer has provided an incorrect answer in Final Jeopardy only once. On the other hand, for Holzhauer to finish, it is only needed once.
Or, as Sanders put it: "It's sort of like projecting how many months will pbad before a lightning strikes a building." We can get a good projection that has good statistical properties, but statistics do not offer any guarantees as to when that event will occur. Low probability ".