The number of daily US deaths from coronoviruses is decreasing again in early August, but scientists warn that a new bout with this decline could claim more lives.
Experts say that the arrival of cold weather and the possibility of more indoor ceremonies will increase the importance of everyday safety precautions.
“As long as we have the vaccine, we have to change our ways,” said Ali Mokdad, a professor of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle. In other words: wear a mask. Stay at home Wash your hands
The US has seen two distinct peaks in daily deaths. Around half the size of the first deadly wave in April sprang up over the country’s summers.
On April 24, there were an average of 2,240 deaths every day as the disease passed through dense cities in the Northeast. Then, in the summer, outbreaks in Texas, California and Florida led to daily deaths at the second peak of August 1,138.
Some states – Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Nevada and California – suffered more deaths during their first military run-in with the virus in spring than during heat waves. Others – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Colorado – certainly saw two spikes in infection, but suffered fewer deaths for the second time.
Now each day approximately 700 Americans are dying of the virus. According to an Associated Press analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, about 25% less than two weeks ago, but still not enough for an early July matchup of about 500 daily deaths.
The number of people being treated for COVID-19 in hospitals in summer hot spots in Florida and Texas is on a steady decline since July.
In Florida, COVID-19 patients numbered less than 3,000 on Thursday morning after peaking at more than 9,500 on July 23. Two weeks later, the state daily reported the highest seven-day average of deaths.
In Texas, about 3,500 people were hospitalized on Thursday with COVID-19, a measure that has been improving since it reached 10,893 on July 22.
There are concerns that a dozen states are heading towards national decline. The states of Iowa, North Carolina, West Virginia and Kansas still see an increase in daily deaths, although the Northeast has none around the mortality rates seen in spring. Subsequently, the virus caught New York off guard, claiming that the state alone had 1,000 lives per day, or five deaths per 100,000 people.
“Often, looking at the whole country, it’s hard to understand the trends,” said Alison Hill, an infectious disease researcher at Harvard University. She mentioned that daily deaths are still increasing in some metro areas, including Memphis, Sacramento, San Francisco and San Jose.
“We’re at a very important point right now,” Hill said. “Schools are opening again. The weather is getting colder, driving people indoors. Not all of those things are particularly good. “
What could be worse next is because the virus is likely to have seasonal swings similar to other respiratory illnesses, Mokad agreed.
“In the Northern Hemisphere, it’s hard to say that we were lucky, but we were lucky that COVID-19 came at a time when seasonality was helping us,” he said.
A similar apprehension hits Europe. The number of cases of new confirmatory coronaires that recorded daily high elevations, along with Hungary and the Czech Republic, was seen in parts of Eastern Europe on Friday. Signs of epidemic resurgence were also evident in Britain and the Netherlands. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that his government was drafting a “war plan” to guard against another wave of infection.
Spain’s health minister pushes against the comments of President Donald Trump, who claimed that the United States did “a lot better” than the European Union in fighting the epidemic.
“No one is in a position to offer lessons, and with all due respect to the American nation, its current president is short,” Salvador Illa told Spanish public broadcaster TVE on Friday. “You have to be very careful when doing international comparisons. Each country has its own specialties when it comes to providing data. “
Scientists do not yet know how much credit, if any, to improve treatment for declining daily US deaths. Doctors now use drugs such as Remedivir and Trick to flip patients from their backs to their stomachs.
But the benefits seen in hospital wards are difficult to document with national figures. Strangely, the mortality rate of hospitalized patients has not improved, Mokkad said. It is possible that sick patients are now admitted to hospitals earlier than before, while healthy patients are treated at home. This would make it difficult for patients to see an improvement in the rate of deaths after hospitalization.
Others insist on better treatment, saying it makes a difference.
Dr., an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore. “We have many more devices in September of 2020,” said Amesh Adalja.
And nursing homes are safe, Adalja said. At the onset of the epidemic, hospitals discharged patients with coronovirus into nursing homes full of vulnerable people. “We’ve learned from those mistakes,” Adalja said.
Vigilance is the signal for collapse, Mokwad said.
“It is a deadly virus. It is very opportunistic, ”he said. “It waits for us to make a mistake.”
The Associated Press Department of Health and Sciences has support from the Science Education Department of the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. AP is solely responsible for all content.