COVID-19 models plot critical scenarios for California hospitals


LOS ANGELES (AP) – When Gov. Gavin Newsom provided strict information this week on out-of-control controls for coronovirus cases and hospitalization, he mentioned a projection model of future death and grief. Did what they said were becoming “dangerous”.

If true, state hospitals could overflow with 75,000 patients over the next four weeks – nearly five times the current level – and an average of 400 people would die each day.

When the newspaper announced on Tuesday, the hospital with about 15,000 patients with COVID-19 was on the verge of ending. Hospitalization is based on cases of an increase in the current rate of infection, with people taking extra precautions to prevent the virus from spreading.

Morm Kilpatrick, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California at Santa Cruz, said that in that trajectory, it doesn’t take long for the state to be in a very bad place.

“One thing that is worrying is that we have had exponential hospitals and cases in California for quite some time,” Kilpatrick said. “it’s terrible.”

Models posted online by the California Department of Public Health largely show a key indicator – transmission rate – an improvement in recent times. But the number still remains at a point, where each person suffering from the virus infects more than one person, spreading out-of-control.

The state uses several models to predict hospitalization. When they are added to an “ensemble” projection, the overall is less severe, but is still shockingly high as of mid-January: over 33,000. This will still create a heavy burden for hospitals.

The model for the increase in deaths does not include an estimate based on the current rate of infection. But the average of dozens of different models shows that the deaths have increased by about 25% from the current figure, to about 27,000 as of 9 January.

Other models on the graph predict a category of fewer deaths than 22,000, which the state would reach a high of 43,000 in about three weeks on Friday.

The nation’s most populous state, which has maintained a very low number of per capita infections for months, while other states have been slammed, is facing its own crisis because of the record number of cases and deaths daily Enters.

On Thursday, a record 379 deaths were recorded. More than 1,000 deaths occurred in the last five days and more than 100,000 new confirmed cases in the last two days.

Most of the models posted on the state’s website show poor conditions before the situation improves as the results of Thanksgiving celebrations and travel are borne by hospitals that have already begun to move out of bed.

“Our modeling is becoming more accurate and dangerous,” Newsome said on Tuesday when he announced that 5,000 additional body bags had been ordered and more than 50 refrigerated trucks ready to serve as temporary mortgages .

Early on the epidemic, some modeling was wildly inaccurate. In March, Newsom stated that a position of about 40 million was on pace to record 25 million cases of COVID-19 within two months. Nine months later, the state has had more than 1.7 million cases, the highest in the nation but a small part of earlier forecasts.

In some models, the wide variation is due to using different data and mathematical formulas, and some data being more heavy.

Bradley Pollock, an epidemiologist at the University of California, Davis, said recent models have been more accurate. The value of the models, he said, is that they help direct public policy, showing trends that are likely to occur until action is taken.

“What we are seeing right now is exactly what we predicted,” said Polak. “The major use of the model is to tell you what can happen that is not going to happen.”

Cases have exploded since November, with Newsom taking action that has ranked businesses and disappointed some residents. He placed most of the state under a new stay-at-home order in which restaurants stopped eating and stopped for haircuts and manicures and many other types of businesses. Retailers have reduced capacity.

If those orders do take effect, case counts and even hospitalization will likely take longer because the infection is the period from when the disease is detected to when the disease is severely hospitalized. Is sufficient for and usually too long for a death to occur.

While the models have been helpful to public health officials, they may be more accurate and useful to the public if they compile a broader set of available data, with the head of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in San Diego, Dr. Eric Topol said.

Topol has criticized not having a national approach to dealing with the virus in the US, and said it does not extend to taking a multi-layered approach to data collection for modeling. He referred to various efforts as “solo acts”.

He said there are a lot of available data that can be used to build a better model – mobility data from the phone shows if data from smart thermometers is being followed to stay That wastewater is also being recorded to record fever where spikes in the virus can be detected several days before cases are reported.

“Modeling is based on multiple assumptions without complete data,” Topol said. “You have some raw data to see that people are in big trouble.”

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