COVID-19 infection killed just 20 million worldwide – why the actual number of cases is likely to be much higher

According to the latest data collected by Johns Hopkins University’s Center for System Science and Engineering, the cornivirus epidemic on Tuesday morning killed the number of COVID-19 infections as 20,092,855 globally.

Health officials say the actual number of cases in the US and around the world is very high. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that 40% of people with COVID-19 are actually asymptomatic. Other data have suggested that 16% of coronavirus transmission is caused by carriers not displaying symptoms or showing only very mild symptoms, while they are contagious, not believing they have the disease.

Viruses can be detected in people one to three days before their symptoms begin, with the highest viral load around the day of onset of symptoms, with a gradual decline over time.

A case study of V’s archived Italian city of V published in the peer reviewed journal revealed in June that more than 40% of COVID-19 infections had no symptoms. With a population of about 3,200 people, Vò reported Italy’s first COVID-related death on 20 February. As a result, the residents of the city were kept in quarantine for 14 days.
Some 2.6% of the city tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 at the start of lockdown, but the figure dropped to 1.2% after a few weeks. Throughout this time, 40% of those infections were those that showed no symptoms. The researchers also concluded that it takes 9.3 days for people who test positive to be free of the virus.

The study by researchers at Imperial College London found, “Someone with an asymptomatic infection is completely unconscious to carry the virus according to their lifestyle and profession and a large number of people according to their lifestyle and profession Can be met with. ” University of Padua.
According to Enrico Lavezzo, a professor at the University of Padua, Department of Molecular Medicine, “If we test positive of a certain number of people found, we expect the same kind of asymptomatic carriers to identify and isolate more. It is difficult.”
The World Health Organization said last month that a separate China study on asymptomatic cases showed that “the proportion of infected people who never developed was 23%.” “Many studies have shown that people themselves infect others before becoming ill, which is supported by available viral shedding data. A transmission study in Singapore reported that 6.4% of secondary cases were caused by pre-transmitted transmission, ”the organization said.
“The transmission of SARS-COV-2 can occur through direct, indirect or close contact with infected people, such as saliva and respiratory secretions, or through their respiratory droplets, which expel the infected person during coughing, sneezing, talking, or singing. It is done. “WHO said. Scientists said it makes asymptomatic transmission more prevalent.
Knowing When An infected person can spread SARS-CoV-2, it is as important as the virus spreads so fast. The WHO recently published a scientific brief on how the virus spreads, especially in people who do not show symptoms.
Viruses can be detected in people one to three days before their symptoms begin, with the highest viral load around the day of onset of symptoms, with a gradual decline over time. This level of infectiousness appears to be one to two weeks for infectious individuals and up to three weeks or more for patients with mild to moderate disease.

According to research, this level of infectiousness appears to be one to two weeks for asymptomatic individuals and up to three weeks or more for patients with mild to moderate disease.

Although all studies on asymptomatic people have limitations, the WHO stated: “For example, some studies have not explicitly stated how people who develop symptoms at the time of testing should be able to detect them. Others were asymptomatic. Others defined ‘asymptomatic’ very narrowly as individuals who never developed fever or respiratory symptoms, rather than those who did not develop any symptoms. ”
According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine, the death rate of US COVID-19 may reach nearly 1 million, but wearing a mask today could save about 70,000 lives. Christopher Murray, director of IHME, said, “It appears that people are wearing masks and are socially disturbed more often as the infection progresses, then after a while the infection subsides, people let their guard down And prevent them from taking these measures. ”
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COVID-19 has now killed at least 736,254 people worldwide, and the US ranks 15th in the world for deaths per 100,000 people (49.5), Johns Hopkins University says. With 10,474 deaths, California recently became the third US state to record more than 10,000 deaths after New York (32,781 deaths) and New Jersey (15,878 deaths).
California Governor Gavin Newsome, a Democrat, last month announced a statewide operation of restaurants, including bars, zoos, wineries, museums, card rooms and movie theaters. “It’s in every county in the state of California, not just the people on the watch list,” he said.
The shutdown affected California’s “monitoring list” of businesses in gyms’ indoor operations, places of worship, offices for non-critical areas, hairdressers, beauty salons, indoor malls and 30 other locations, representing 80% of the state Huh. California.

New York City, the epicenter of the epidemic in the US in the early days of the pandemic, was a case study of how some Americans fared better than others, and how the virus is transmitted.

On the anniversary of the 1918 flu, health writer Ed Yong warned of another pandemic and now says that America should learn a lesson from the last seven months, adding that “COVID-19 is a harbinger of impending bad plagues”.
“Despite adequate warnings, the US destroyed every opportunity to control coronaviruses. And despite its immense benefits – immense resources, biomedical, scientific expertise – it grew rapidly, ”he wrote in the September issue of The Atlantic. While South Korea, Thailand, Iceland, Slovakia, and Australia worked “decisively” to level and then tilt the new transition phase downward, “America achieved only one plateau in the spring, which was the summer. Turned into an attractive slope. ”He said.
Yong said he had spoken to more than 100 health experts since the pandemic began and settled America’s mistakes as follows: “The sluggish response from a government deprived of expertise allowed coronoviruses to gain a foothold,” Complicated health by chronic disregard of the public, ”he said. “A bloated, unskilled health care system did not prepare hospitals for the upcoming wave of disease. Racist policies from the days of colonialism and slavery left indigenous and black Americans especially vulnerable to COVID-19. ”
New York City, the American lifetime of the epidemic, was a case study of how some Americans performed better than others and how the virus spreads. Black and Latino people were hospitalized twice at the rate of Caucasian during the peak of the crisis, data released in May by the city showed.
Black New Yorkers were hospitalized at a rate of 632 per 100,000 people, while Caucasians were hospitalized at a rate of 284 per 100,000 people. According to the data, black and Hispanic residents were dying at a rate of 21.3 per 100,000, while non-white races were dying at a rate of 40.2 per 100,000.
One theory: Americans of more foreign origin are more likely to live in multi-generational homes, and Asian and Hispanic people are more likely to be immigrants than whites, according to the Pew Research Center. People of color are more likely to work in frontline jobs who are at greater risk of contracting COVID-19.
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President Donald Trump on Saturday sidelined the country’s lawmakers as he claimed that an abolished unemployment benefit was replaced by a reduced amount after talks with Congress on postponement of payroll taxes and a new coronovirus rescue package.
However, in the midst of a pandemic that provides volatile relief to executive orders and memoranda is not possible or legal, analysts said, raising more questions than answers to the wording of the orders.
America has the highest number of COVID-19 deaths of any country (163,465), followed by Brazil (101,752), Mexico (53,003), UK (46,611) and India (45,257). The virus has infected the highest number of 5,094,565 people in any country.
Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the White House Coronovirus Task Force, has been optimistic about a vaccine arriving in late 2020 or early 2021, and says people need to continue social practice Must remove and wear masks.
Fauci has stated that he expects a coronovirus vaccine to be developed as early as 2021, but has previously stated that it is unlikely that a vaccine will provide 100% immunity; He stated that the best realistic result would be 70% to 75% effectiveness based on other vaccines. Other epidemiologists are even more circumscribed when the transmission of the virus on the vaccine is soon eradicated.
“We are not going to have more than eight billion people in the world at this time,” said Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota scientist. Earlier this month. “And if we don’t get durable immunity, we are potentially seeing repatriation on a regular basis, if we can do that. We have actually come to grips with living with this virus, at least for my lifetime, and at the same time, that does not mean that there is not much we can do about it. ”
Dow Jones Industrial Index DJIA,
+ 1.02%
And the S&P 500 SPX,
+ 0.49%
Tuesday was up slightly as investors awaited progress in two rounds of fiscal stimulus during the coronovirus epidemic; Nasdaq Composite Index Comp,
+ 0.02%
Was in negative territory.
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