Coronovirus killed Los Angeles in December before the outbreak of Wuhan

Top Line

According to research by UCLA and the University of Washington, Kovid-19 may have started spreading in Los Angeles in early December 2019, before the World Health Organization also knew of the initial outbreak in Wuhan, China.

Key Facts

Through analyzing medical records, the researchers detected an unexpected surge of patients seeking treatment for respiratory disease starting the week of December 22 and continuing through the end of February, which they believe indicates Maybe Kovid-19 was pre-thought.

The number of outpatients caring for coughs at UCLA clinics has increased by more than 50%, with the average annual number for this complaint exceeding 1,000 for the past five years.

There was a corresponding increase in the number of patients treated in emergency rooms for coughs, as well as hospitalizations with acute respiratory failure during this time.

The authors conclude in the study, “The number of patients is significantly higher, with the prevalence of SERPS-COV-2 continuing until the end of December 2019 and until February 2020 and continuing until February 2020.” , Published in the Peer-Review Journal of Medical Internet Research, noting that many coronovirus carriers do not show virus symptoms, its presence in LA in December may be much larger than those numbers suggest.

Researchers woke up through a large volume of data to more than 9.5 million outpatient clinic visits, approximately 575,000 emergency room visits and 250,000 hospitalized patients complaining of a cough.

However, researchers have cautioned their findings, as they do not conduct any clinical trials and other factors, including an increase in influenza cases and lung injuries from e-cigarettes, and “coughing”. Comprehension of their finding of reporting patients. May have played a role (although vaping is on a decline since September 2019).

Serious sentiment

Dr. Stephanie Strathdee, author and author of the Department of Medicine of California San Diego Perfect hunterStated that the data suggest that the coronovirus was already present in previously known LA. “The data are suggestive, but the answer is yes,” he said, adding: “However, there is no way to be sure, because the samples were not collected and stored at a time that was later tested. Can go, because Kovid-19 was not on our radar until February 2020. ”

Chief critic

Less persuasive dr. There is Stanley Pearlman, a professor in the University of Iowa’s Department of Microbiology and Immunology and the Department of Pediatrics, who called the findings “very speculative and potentially inflammatory.” “There is no evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in this study,” he told Forbes. “It is entirely based on people hospitalized in the ER and in many cases with respiratory disease. These data do not support the conclusion in my opinion. ”

Main background

This is not the first study in the United States to suggest a headway made up of previously known viruses. The first official coronavirus virus was reported and accepted by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Washington State in mid-January. According to the WHO, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission reported cases of pneumonia in the city on 31 December. The cases were later linked to the novel coronavirus.

What to see

The use of electronic health records and health system data, used in this study, can be important in indicating when a new disease or outbreak may occur. “If this type of analysis is done in real time in the future, then we have a better chance of staying ahead of the next pandemic than being behind it,” Dr. Strathdee said.

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