According to new estimates, coronavirus infection has increased in the UK in recent weeks.
The government’s latest R numbers are between 1 and 1.2, which means the epidemic is on the rise.
And a study of thousands of people in England found that cases doubled every seven to eight days, with a significant increase in the north and among young people.
How many people are presenting social laws of people inside and outside the house since Monday.
The ‘Rule of Six’ would ban gatherings of more than six people in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
It has also been announced that Birmingham will become the latest area to bring in new sanctions following a spike in cases.
But three separate large studies have indicated widespread resurgence of coronovirus in the population.
And the R (fertility) number – which tells how many others each infected person has passed through the virus – has also increased.
If it is more than one, then now, the infected number is increasing.
But the virus is still at a much lower level across Britain than the epidemic in April.
The UK is entering a new phase of the coronavirus epidemic.
Since the lockdown, we are deciding how to respond to falling cases. But now the R number has gone above the critical level of 1 for the first time since March and is supported by remakes of data that are rising again in cases.
It is not just at the center of attraction like Bolton – a government consultant told me that this increase was widespread across the country.
He said that today was a “wake up call” for the nation. There are already some indications that the number of people admitted to hospital has started increasing.
But it does not repeat the build-up for lockdown. The cases are at a fairly low level and they are increasing slowly.
Pre-lockdown, R number was around three and cases were doubling every three to four days. It is now about half.
Coronoviruses will be a major challenge until we have the vaccine.
So the kind of question that we raise in a difficult winter is how to balance the virus by connecting it with our lives.
REACT studies of more than 150,000 volunteers in England, one of three new sources of data at community levels, were found to be “accelerating transmission” in late August and early September.
It said that infection levels were rising throughout England, but particularly in the North East, North West and Yorkshire.
And by 65–24 years of age there was an increase in positive cases in all age groups, the highest rate of development in 18–24 year olds.
The data clearly showed “a trend concerning coronovirus infections”, said Prof. Paul Elliott, director of studies at Imperial College London, where cases are rising rapidly across England and “no longer concentrated among key workers “.
He said there was evidence of “an epidemic in the community” that was not the result of more people testing.
The second set of data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) says that there has been no increase in cases in Wales during the first week in September. It is estimated that between August 30 and September 5, there were 1,200 coronaviruses in the week.
But in England, the equivalent estimate was 39,700 – 11,000 more than the previous week.
The ONS bases its data on thousands of swab tests conducted in homes, whether people have symptoms or not.
Catherine Kent from the ONS infection survey said the results suggested “an increase in Kovid-19 infections in England in recent weeks, with higher infection rates in 17-34 year olds”.
Nicola Sturgeon warns that the average number of cases in Scotland has been “more than trebling every three weeks”.
And a third set of data from the Kovid Symptom Study app, which monitors the health of around four million people in the UK, also suggests an increase in new cases since late August – a significant increase in numbers for the first time since mid-June.