California Council Struggles With Coronovirus Case Rate

This is a metric that is often talked about Reopening the economy in California, a passport to a more normal life amid the COVID-19 epidemic.

The fate of businessmen depends on it. In many counties, this is all that stands for people eating food indoors in restaurants, watching movies on the big screen, and sweating through spin classes in the gym.

Number: 7.0.

Under California’s latest reopening plan, state officials require that counties be allowed to open their doors and welcome customers before completing certain businesses. Counties from Los Angeles to Batte and Sonoma to San Bernardino have stopped attempts to file seven or fewer new cases of coronovirus per 100,000 inhabitants per day.

A metric test – known as the adjusted case rate – refers to how many people are falling sick every day in a county.

The standard is part of the state’s effort to strike a delicate balance that will prevent an increase in cases of loosening sanctions. Ideally, if transmission is sufficiently low, then small increases spreading due to more businesses will not affect the healthcare system.

California Secretary of Health and Human Services Drs. Mark Gali said in a recent briefing, “All these concepts and approaches stem from this notion of slow and hard … so we didn’t come back later.”

But what the threshold actually should be is an estimate, experts say, because no one really knows what a safe level of transmission to reopen.

In late August, Gov. Gavin Newsom unveiled a new system to reopen, giving each county a level based on widespread broadcasting. Tier corresponds to permission to rejoin. Counties can be moved to a less-restrictive level, meeting benchmarks that show the prevalence has been reduced for two weeks in a row.

Sacramento County, for example, has long been stuck in a purple tier – the most restrictive – in which most non-deemed businesses either shut down or are only allowed to operate outside.

But last week, the state announced that for the first time the county had reduced the number of new daily cases from seven per 100,000 residents. If Sacramento maintains its progress, it could fall into the red category this week, allowing it to immediately resume indoor operations (with restrictions) in gyms, restaurants, museums, churches and other facilities, County Public Health Drs. Olivia Cassirer said. Officer.

“We are hoping and anticipating that we will officially move into the Red Tier,” Kashire said in an interview.

The current state system largely depends on just two matrices: the case rate and the positivity rate, which is the percentage of tests for viruses that come positive.

These metrics were chosen in contrast to the number of hospitalizations or deaths, as they should reveal relatively quickly whether cases are circulating in a region, Gali said. He said it could be several weeks before hospitalization or death.

To move from purple tier to red tier, a county’s positivity rate must be 8% or less, while its daily case rate is seven or less per 100,000 residents. UC San Francisco epidemiologist Drs. George Rutherford said that this number is in partial estimate.

“It’s all arbitrary,” Rutherford said. “There is no page in the epidemiology textbook that you can point to and say ‘you do that.” … we are learning as we go along. ”

The state has chosen to adjust case numbers based on how much each county is testing – it does not want to punish counties for catching more cases. If counties test more than the state average, their case rate will decrease slightly; In contrast, counties that lag behind the state average on the test will adjust their case rates upward.

In the most recent week for which the data was released, Kern County reported 6.3 cases per 100,000 residents per day. Yet the state reorganized Kern’s rate for the county’s test-less-than-average amount. That its case rate rose to 7.2 above the threshold for going to the lower level.

In contrast, Los Angeles County’s rate had dropped from 7.7 to 7.0 due to extensive testing.

Based on these adjusted rates, 11 counties including Ventura, Cairn, and Monterey have fallen into the purple color category with case rates above 7.0, although their positivity rates are below 8%. San Diego County, in the red tier, was recently close to reverting to purple as its case rate began to climb above 7.0.

Despite its 7.0 drop, LA continues to struggle with its case rate. LA County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said she anticipates that the case rate increase will prevent the county from moving forward from reopening when new figures are released on Tuesday. He said the positivity rate has been below 3%, but the case will not be consistent with the rate.

“The issue that is most difficult for us… has been the daily case rate; Ferrer said that we had to get the adjusted rate at seven new cases per 100,000 people.

The fact that the counties meet the positivity rate requirements is not in accordance with the case rate standards. As counties have increased their testing, their positivity rates will usually begin to decrease, he said. Once testing is up, counties are able to use identified cases for contact tracing and isolation, ultimately to reduce transmission.

“Given all this together, it is really moving forward as we expected – that test positivity declines sooner than the case rate, and that allows counties to move to the next level with some degree of confidence Is allowed. ” The abuser said.

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