Brexit: Is Theresa May’s luck about to run out? –

Brexit: Is Theresa May’s luck about to run out?


Because the June early elections failed to fulfill May's stated desire for a stronger government mandate, he has increasingly moved away from his intransigent approach towards Brexit towards a more pragmatic negotiating campaign.

But there will be talks this week that could have far-reaching implications, not only for May, but also for the nation.

On Monday, the British prime minister will head to Brussels to meet European leaders Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk.

The negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom have so far been frustratingly slow. May will hope that EU heads of government will determine that "sufficient progress" has been made and will give the green light to future trade negotiations at a crucial EU summit on December 14.
Ten days ago, the British Prime Minister was given 4 December to present further proposals on three key points: the Northern Ireland border, the financial agreement of Great Britain and the rights of EU citizens.

According to reports, the so-called "divorce bill" has been resolved, the money that the May government must pay in the EU budget as part of its current obligations as a member. But if the two sides can not agree on what kind of border will run between Northern (British) Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (EU), the mid-December summit may not produce a breakthrough.

Britain has said it will leave both the single market and the customs union when it leaves the bloc in March 2019, a move that critics say could lead to the so-called "hard frontier" in Ireland.

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Fang: Ireland has the last word

Tusk, the President of the European Council, stood firm on Friday the problem of Ireland must be resolved before commercial discussions after Brexit can move forward.

"If the UK offer is unacceptable for Ireland, it will also be unacceptable for the EU," Tusk told reporters in Dublin. "This is the reason why the key to the future of the United Kingdom lies, in some way, in Dublin, at least as long as the Brexit negotiations continue."

Ireland has said that it does not seek to delay the Brexit process, but rather guarantees written in the form of a specific and detailed border plan.

Irish Chancellor Simon Coveney said on Sunday he was not sure if an agreement to bypbad a tough Northern Ireland border could be managed before Monday's deadline, but he hoped the May meetings in Brussels could lead to an approach.

"Let's not run before we can walk in. Obviously, we would like that to be the case," Coveney told RTE radio, according to Reuters.

"The hope is that those meetings (on Monday) will generate an impulse that can be taken to the summit of leaders the week after … and that will allow this Brexit negotiation process to open up to the second phase of the discussions" .

And May also faces potential obstacles from the Democratic Party of Northern Ireland, whose 10 Westminster lawmakers are propping up their minority government and who will oppose any special treatment for Northern Ireland.

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New demands from Brexiteer

Meanwhile, back home, the main supporters of Brexit have demanded that May remain firm in "Any other financial commitment with the EU until they have agreed that in return, they will encounter various conditions."

At the end of the mid-December summit, the Leave Means Leave group sent a letter describing several terms, including a call for Britain to escape the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) and not apply once Britain withdraws in March 2019.

Former Conservative Party leader Iain Duncan Smith wrote in The Sunday Telegraph that the Brexit divorce bill should only be paid once the CJEU has relinquished control .

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"It should be contingent on an end of Most of the people who are interested in the EU recognize that the most important definition to regain control is the moment we leave the authority of the ECJ, "wrote Duncan Smith.

"However, even as we prepare to leave, the EU has insisted that the ECJ reserves the right to decide on the rights of EU citizens in the UK after Brexit … To do this, They demanded that the jurisdiction of the ECJ be maintained, it is the most outlandish statement. "

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Although May promised to end the CJEU's authority in the United Kingdom, she has alluded to the fact that her mandate could continue in a certain way during an "implementation period" last March 2019.

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This will not appease the Leave Means Leave camp, and could cause problems at home for the besieged PM.

Next week brings the negotiations to a climax to date, with disagreements that can potentially stop the whole process. The EU must consider that there is "sufficient progress" in the three dispute areas for the Brexit negotiations to move to the next phase in December.

How he manages the meetings on Monday and the next summit will be crucial both to retain his position as prime minister, and to indicate what a post-Brexit Britain will look like.

Katie Polglase, Milena Veselinovic, James Masters and Jane Merrick of CNN contributed to this report.

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