Brexit Bulletin: final offer? – Bloomberg



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Theresa May has a week to make Europe a offer that she can not refuse. [19659003] Just as it was getting closer to the front of the payment, the almost impossible issue of the Irish border has resurfaced as the main obstacle. In addition to the risk of failure, the Irish prime minister, struggling to save his prime minister, has become increasingly active in his opposition to the United Kingdom's position that a solution can be postponed.

European Council President Donald Tusk set a deadline for May on Friday, December 4 to put more money on the table for the divorce settlement and also find an answer that satisfies the Irish about how closely their future border with Northern Ireland of the United Kingdom after separation. While neither side wants a police border, the Brexit policy of the United Kingdom will inevitably require some kind of supervision.

Part of the problem is that the EU's vision for that future trade agreement is much less ambitious than what the UK wants. While the United Kingdom seeks to maintain the current rules as much as possible, Europe is talking about an agreement like the one Canada struck with the EU, which maintains trade barriers to products like meat and dairy.

The worse the commercial terms are, the more application of the border is needed. While Ireland wants to preserve the status quo and have an unhindered border on the island, the Northern Irish party that is holding up in May is more concerned with avoiding any barriers between Northern Ireland and the rest of Britain. They reject anything that makes the enclave different from the rest of the United Kingdom.

The EU has shown little sympathy for that point of view. The Secretary of Commerce of the United Kingdom, Liam Fox, reiterated on Sunday that the border question can not be solved until a commercial agreement is signed.

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, who essentially exercises a veto over whether Brexit negotiations can move from divorce to negotiate at a crucial summit next month, has also intensified rhetoric in recent weeks. On Friday, he raised the possibility that the stalemate in the separation talks will continue in 2018. He is fighting for his own political survival, after a scandal in his government risks provoking an early election. Brexit's position in Ireland is a sensitive issue for voters and Varadkar does not want to risk being accused of allowing the island of two countries to split.

This time next week there will be a dinner with the president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, in what is expected to be the key event to unblock the talks after another possible round of formal negotiations this week. The pressure continues.

The leader of the Scottish Conservative Party, Ruth Davidson, a very popular figure at the May party, said on Sunday that not overcoming the stalemate next month would be a "setback". The opposition Labor Party is taking a harder line. , with the Brexit spokesman, Keir Starmer, indicating that the failure could generate a censure motion in May: "If this time there is not enough progress, I think the scrutiny will be really intense and will have to do with its authority"

. ] Brexit Latest

Downing Aerospace | Brexit runs the risk of cutting the links that make the United Kingdom a center of the aerospace industry. Few aircraft are actually built in the country, but 120,000 British aerospace jobs are fueled by the supply of components and systems for aircraft badembled elsewhere. From small companies like Boxarr Ltd. to continental corporate giants like Airbus SE, executives are worried, reports Matthew Campbell of Bloomberg. "There are a lot of planes flying around the world with many British kits in them, and that's the product of these highly integrated networks," says Boxarr's president, Colin Terry, at the RAF Club in London. "We must not stop looking at the ball"

In search of productivity | Business secretary Greg Clark says that reviving Britain's declining productivity lies at the heart of the industrial strategy it will present on Monday. While Britain would follow Brexit's "independently" strategy, the plan will eliminate the uncertainty caused by the departure, Clark said in an interview with Alex Morales. The publication of the main policy on Monday occurs when health services company Merck & Co. and diagnostics provider Qiagen NV say they will establish new research facilities in Britain.

Office of National Statistics

Dumping U.K. Assets | European banks reduced their exposure to Britain after the referendum, reducing their badets in the United Kingdom by $ 425 billion in just one year. The fall was driven by a 35 percent drop in derivatives exposures, which shows that European banks are preparing for the risk that the UK will not reach an agreement on its future relationship with the block before its exit, according to data from the European Banking Authority. [19659003] Selling | Entrepreneurs sold their businesses in record numbers last year due to political uncertainty, reports Financial Times . The Brexit vote and the risk of the government led by labor leader Jeremy Corbyn were some of the reasons for the sales, according to a Barclays report.

PM for Brexit? Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt is canvbading colleagues and donors about a possible leadership offer, reports Sunday Times . Hunt has publicly changed his mind about Brexit after campaigning to stay last year and is lining up as an alternative to Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson if Theresa May withdrew, says Times .

In the markets | The resistance of the three-week rally of the pound against the dollar depends on whether the current negotiations on Brexit can pave the way to discuss trade. Without much key economic data, discussions between British and EU officials could dictate the sterling measures, the Bloomberg & # 39; s report Charlotte Ryan and Anooja Debnath.

And finally …

Maybe it will not happen at all. Democratic Liberal leader Vince Cable acknowledges that the chances of the Brexit being abandoned are as high as 20 percent, the Europhile veteran said over the weekend, sparking anger among Brexit supporters.

"We can get to the middle of next year and discover that it is just a horrible mess and there will be a growing political climate in the country and in Parliament to find a way out," he told Sky News. "But if it's a terrible and very divisive and very expensive disaster, then I think people will want to reopen the issue."

Former UK business secretary Vince Cable.

Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe

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