Led by Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden over Donald Trump, there has been a record 17-point increase as the US election shows its final sprint, an Opinium Research and Guardian Opinion poll.
Some 57% of potential voters intend to vote for Biden, while just 40% say they will vote for the outgoing president, the survey suggests.
The 17-point difference is even larger than the 57% -41% margin CNN received earlier this month. Ronald Reagan decreased the lead to lead the popular vote in his second landslide victory in 1984. Four years later, Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis defeated George HW Bush by 17 points, only to lose, but that election was taken in July so Bush had ample time to recover.
Election days are just three weeks away and millions of votes are already in place, with some Republicans in the race for the presidency, Senate and House of Representatives a scare. Ed Rollins, who advises the Trump Super Supporter Political Action Committee, told the New York Times, “The president’s political climate is terrible. It is a tough fight. “
Asked by the Times whether Trump could still rotate things, Rollins replied: “It’s cooked.”
Opinium findings for the Guardian show that a busy month saw the death of Supreme Court judge Ruth Beder Ginsberg, Trump’s disastrous debate demonstration and the White House outbreak of coronoviruses that infected the president, the Democratic Came decisively in favor of the Democrats.
Biden has gained five percentage points among unsure voters since September. Democrats also injected momentum into current supporters, with voters for Biden now likely to increase from 75% to 82% in September.
The former vice president now leads healthcare, race relations, jobs, and even the economy (45% to 43%), commonly seen as Trump’s signature issue. His reputation as a successful businessman was successful in his investigation of his tax affairs from the New York Times.
The research also highlights some major differences from the 2016 election when Trump admitted Hillary Clinton to the Electoral College.
Both Trump and Clinton were historically unpopular. The President again has a negative approval rating of -11%, with two in five (42%) strongly disapproving of how he is handling the presidency. But this time Biden has a strong positive approval rating of + 18%. More than half (52%) voters approve of his campaign.
Clinton also fared poorly on questions alleging sexism of “possibility” and voters would go with voters for a beer. But in 2020 voters say Biden is more likely than Trump by a 57% to 32% margin.
And while Trump’s “crooked Hillary” label and accusations seemed to stick, his efforts to portray Biden as mentally unstable appear to be diminishing. In fact, voters say the 77-year-old Biden has better mental stamina than the 74-year-old Trump by a margin of 48% to 44%.
Opinium surveyed 2,003 American adults over 18 or from 8 to 12 October. Interviews were conducted online and sampled and weighted to match the demographics of the US adult population as well as factoring in levels of education and matching the previous vote in recent elections.
Trump’s core support is fiercely loyal, and is still turning up in his revived campaign rallies, but there is evidence of some Americans being against him in battlegrounds like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Nearly two to three (62%) of ex-Trump voters (who voted for him in 2016, but will not do so this year) say that the reason they deal with the coronovirus epidemic is that they switched their votes. In addition, nearly half (47%) of ex-Trump voters say their personality and behavior contributed to the switch.
Democrats have said that a major victory is the safest way to avoid protracted legal disputes that can also lead to street violence. Trump has spent months undermining the credibility of the election in general and mail-in voting in particular.
The Opinium found that Biden’s leadership depends on the success of mail-in voting, likely to hit record levels during the epidemic. Some 55% of in-person voters intend to vote for Trump while 42% intend to vote for Biden. But when it comes to mail-in voters, 75% intend to vote for Biden and only 22% intend to vote for Trump.
As a result, the US may see a so-called “red mirage” in which Trump appears to have won based on the initial count of in-person votes, only to be overtaken by Biden’s mail-in ballots or the day after. Only 30% of voters expect to know who the winner is on election night.
There are apprehensions that Trump will use that time to spread conspiracy theories and declare victory. Half (50%) of the voters are concerned that if the President loses the election, he will not accept. There is a partisan split: Two-thirds (66%) of Trump voters are worried that the election will be rigged.
Meanwhile, Republicans are running to confirm Amy Connie Barrett in the Supreme Court before Election Day. More than half (55%) of Americans think that if Barrett joined it, the court would be skewed toward a conservative view. A third (32%) think it will be “too conservative”.
Subsequently, two in five (41%) think the new court will vote to overturn the historic Rudd v Wade legalizing abortion ruling in the country. This is despite a plurality of support for the ruling (45%).