LAS VEGAS – On the night of election in 2016, emotions were running high, especially if you had about $ 30,000 on the line.
“I went to Trump minus $ 28,000, Clinton plus $ 25,000 the night of the election,” said political analyst Paul Krishnamurthy of Betfair, the world’s largest online betting exchange.
About four years ago Hillary Clinton’s victory that night on Donald Trump came as a surprise to professional gamblers and polluters.
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“I think everyone was surprised, wasn’t it? Krishnamurthy said that you were seeing these crazy results and everything just turned upside down.” I managed to reduce my loss on Trump. But it’s not a good night. was. ”
According to OddsChecker, a major odds comparison site in the UK, Trump held around 58% of all bets in the 2020 race in August. A total of 55.8% bets have been made so far in September.
Trump was the big-paying longshot in 2016, and may be the reason that the 2020 presidential race appears much closer to foreign betting markets than the national elections, as gamblers hope he once again hurdles. Can be avoided
“Trump has made this fairy tale betting story,” Krishnamurthy said.
According to the latest Betfair odds, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a 53% chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 46%, although the numbers have steadily fluctuated and were “almost 50/50 the other day” Krishnamurthy mentioned.
Betting on elections begins in the late 19th century, where pool halls doubled as a betting exchange before making their way to Wall Street, where elusive practices that helped shape millions of dollars of American politics. Was stranded in
The 2016 election brought huge money to the betting markets, which have become increasingly popular as a way of determining a candidate’s chances of winning.
Brandi Travis, Chief Marketing Officer at Predict. It is a research-backed betting exchange and one of only two places to legally gamble on politics in the US, believing that betting markets are more accurate than elections.
“The reasoning behind this is that when you are voting people, you are asking people what do you want to be? Travis said, “With real money future markets, you’re asking people what you think is going to happen and how you think you’re going to put your money. ” Travis said.
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During this year’s Iowa caucus, several polls showed Sen. Bidensch and Sen. Bernie Sanders in a second, followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Mayor Pete Batigiag.
Buttig was in the lead in the prophecy.
“A lot of people were surprised that Buttig won. However, if you looked at our markets leading in Iowa, you would have noticed that we had a bit of a butt ahead of everyone else.
Prior to the 2016 election, speculators had a strong record in the markets.
During the 2012 presidential race, national elections were sealed by Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in a virtual tie, while betting markets such as Betfair and now non-operational Irish betting site Intrade overwhelmingly supported Obama.
Krishnamurthy said, “Markets have a great record till 2015.” “The first 15 years of Betfair they never failed to call the British or American elections 100 days out and then it all went crazy – Trump, Brexit. I think people have lost a lot of trust in them now. ”
While overseas markets are favorable to Trump, Predicti, which was founded in 2014, has a strong leadership in Biden, with a 59% chance of winning less than two months before the November election.
“He’s ahead of May and he hasn’t dropped since,” Travis said.
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Professor Rob Lang of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, argued that traditional polling is not so important in betting markets when election night comes.
“They are emotional markets. Langers said that Betters does not know much about being politically unnoticed. “On election night they are not bad because they are quickly gathering information and then applying it to the market.”
They say that money negotiations, and while national elections may show Trump with a tough fight, it is clear that gamblers are ready to play the odds.