Arizona’s growing Latino population, which is heavily of Mexican descent, is a major reason the state may swing for Democrats in the presidential race for the first time since 1996. Changing the attitudes of white college-educated voters in Maricopa County and Trump’s suburbs. Himself, has also contributed to the changing political scenario of the state.
“There is room for Joe Biden to increase his support among Latino in Arizona over the last 50 days,” said Stephanie Valencia, co-founder of Equis Research, which hired GBAO Strategies to conduct the poll. “There is plenty of room for them to continue their case for these young Hispanic men who may have been intrigued by Trump but have not yet been fully sold on voting for him.”
Trump’s endorsement coincided with an 8-point increase among Latino in Arizona in four waves of Equate voting, with the president’s 2019 average. After weekend events in Nevada, Trump held a Latino Round Table Conference in Phoenix on Monday.
Valencia attributed the shift to “Trump intrigue” around the president’s business personality. Latino men under the age of 50 represented the largest statistical bump for Trump since May since an EQUIS poll. Waltenia said the boost for Trump among young Latino men could be the product of a smaller membership. But even though the actual change was half the size, he said, “We will come to the same conclusion: young people are increasingly moving towards the umpire.”
“While more than 40 percent say they are supporting Trump today,” Valencia said. “Only 26 percent are likely to support him at the end of the day.”
As the election drew to a close, Biden’s campaign ran to accelerate support for Latino, particularly in Florida’s battleground, where he is undermining Clinton among Latino in the state. Biden is heading to Florida on Tuesday for a Hispanic Heritage event and a Giants roundtable.
In Arizona, Biden’s team is aiming to win at least 70 percent of the Latino vote – the same share of Latino Sen. Kirsten Sinima won his 2018 race when he became the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Arizona since the 1980s. Latinos will be one of the key blocks to determine who wins decisive Maricopa County and can help Democratic-leaning Pima County.
“The path to victory in Arizona, and in some other states, runs through the Latino community,” Jessica Meza, Biden’s Arizona state director of affairs, told POLITICO earlier this month.
Arizona Latino preferred Biden to vote on every issue, with Trump leading by 44 points at which voters thought they would best handle health care issues. Asked who would do a better job of handling coronovirus, 67 percent of voters preferred Biden, compared to 25 percent for Trump. On immigration, Biden led 67-27 percent. He led the economy with 57 percent compared to Trump’s 35 percent.
Valencia said that when Latino is given more information about Biden’s platform, his favoritism increases because the former vice president is still undefined among the group. The poll also found that Democratic Senate nominee Mark Kelly, who has consistently led Republican Sen. Martha McSally in the election, is beating Biden with Latin in the state.
The Arizona Latinoes supported Kelly from Maxley 65 percent to more than 27 percent. The survey polled 600 registered Latino voters in Arizona and English since August 20. 2, and plus or minus 4 is the margin of error.
Seventy percent of Latino in Arizona said they are “very motivated” to vote.
Biden’s statewide lead in Arizona, where he is ahead of Trump by an average of 5 points, also increased by his numbers with white voters. According to a monthly tracking poll from Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights, Biden is 22 points ahead of Trump with white college-educated voters in the state. Trump won the same group in 2016 by 6 points. The shift among college-educated white voters also occurred in other battleground suburbs. But Valencia cautioned Democrats against overconfidence in the Grand Canyon state.
“If there were elections today, Biden would have won in a place like Arizona, where he would have sat with white support,” he said, yet, Valencia said, with Biden facing a challenge if someone in white voter support There are ups and downs – even if it is just some point.
“If Democrats didn’t work to close that gap to increase support among Latino, that’s when there would be trouble,” Menecchia said.