Biden gains edge over Trump in Arizona and has big lead in Minnesota – Battleground Tracker Poll


Every four years it may seem that the path to the presidency runs well through the same list of the Truden battleground. But this time, we’re on some new turf: Democrats are contesting in a few states in the fast-growing Sun Belt — notably Arizona — that has been in the Republican column all but once since Eisenhower. And Republicans would like to take advantage of their white, working-class support to flip Minnesota in the upper Midwest, which Oh-A-Narrow forms four years before 1976 to retain its string of Democratic votes. They were removed from.

Right now he seems tilted in favor of potential business Democrats. Let’s start in Arizona, where Joe Biden has progressed to a small lead, ahead of three points, an edge that we have grown from the tied race found it In July. We then first worried about COVID and saw the responsibility of the President to include it in playing the state. However, the virus’s concern has hit its peak of the summer, it remains for a massive two-thirds of voters, and is still closely tied to voting: the more worried voters are, President Trump Less likely to vote for.

And more questions arose in a week What did the president know Regarding the virus quickly, the Arizonans feel the toll could have been reduced due to the nation’s death, sooner than planned, and more pin blame on the administration is credited for making the outbreak worse What is this did do. Most voters feel that the administration can do more to combat the virus. And so, on balance, Biden comes in with a 13-point lead, which better handles the outbreak.

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The economic decline from the epidemic is certainly affecting things here as well: more than half say they have felt at least some financial impact from it, and they are voting for Biden, 57% -32. %.

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But he said that, the President is very ahead in this competition. Most of them start with sustained, solid support from Republicans, which – in other states – describes a very different state of affairs. For an overwhelming number of them, the president presided over an even worse outbreak and today he is against it; Their policies are helping the economy recover, and it can be cured Even if the virus is not contained. Not that Republicans were immune to the financial impact – four in 10 reports at least some influence – but for them the president is still making the economy better, and even better than Biden on handling the virus.

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Inspired by that GOP base, the president as a whole is among those who call the economy an important factor. He is narrow on Biden when it comes to handling the economy, generally and manufacturing in particular.

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It’s in Arizona right now, it’s not just about the economy. Emotions are more commonly felt about the state of the nation. Only 18% of Arizona’s voters today feel confident about the country (and three times more uncomfortable); 26% describe themselves as optimistic; 10% say they feel “safe”, and it all looks like a headwind to an incumbent, even with a relatively good economic mark against his opponent.

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More white women have turned to Biden since July. He is now running neck-to-neck with Mr. Trump among them. And Biden enjoys double-digit advantage over the president with white women with college degrees.

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Eighty percent of Latin people are supporting Biden in 2016, similar to the level of support Hillary Clinton received.

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Among the supporters of each candidate in Arizona, 96% say they are strong in their support. Given this, the coming weeks here do not seem like a campaign about changing mindsets or swing voters. It looks like a contest of two partisan factions, which has taken place in the US this year with very different ideas – a contest about motivation and voting.

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About 1,600 miles north of Minnesota, we find that Republicans really cut out for them with their work. Supported by Democrats’ 2016 performance improvements with college degree voters, especially college-educated white women, Biden has a substantial nine-point lead. His current percentage is 13 points better than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 and the Democrats received in mid-2018.

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For these women, 61% are voting for Biden primarily to oppose Mr. Trump, which is higher than Biden’s voters overall. Even those who think the state’s economy is doing well are mostly voting for Biden. And 83% of them dislike how the president handles himself personally, more than double-digit voters overall. Biden was doing better among women and white women than Democrats in 2016, so it became harder for the president to flip the state.

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Still, for White, the non-college voters that helped the president bring the state so close at the last minute, Mr. Trump offers some clear benefits. From two to more than one, he feels he will be better at energy exploration, and by large margins on manufacturing, agriculture, and farming – all important industries in Minnesota – as well as on small business. These voters also believe that Biden pays more attention to the concerns of black voters than white voters. But this may not be enough, as Mr. Trump’s margin with the group is less pronounced than in 2016. He is currently at plus-15 with them, versus plus-27 against Clinton.

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Three months after George Floyd’s death Protested Across the country, more than half of Minnesota voters – a voter who is highly white – say they agree with the views expressed by the Black Lives Matters movement. This is what voters feel nationwide.

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Heads of the political spectrum say the recent protests in American cities will be a major factor in their vote for president, but Republicans have different ideas about the best way to end them. While most Minnesota voters think police reforms addressing racial discrimination are needed, just over half of Republicans think police and law enforcement should be used to punish protesters.

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Given one of the presidential campaign messages on the possible spread of generally violent protests, it does not appear to have changed many votes. While nearly half (45%) of Minnesota’s suburban voters think it is at least somewhat likely that “large, violent demonstrations, riots and looting” may occur where they live, it is Republican suburbanites – first. Are voting for the president – which is more likely to happen than Democratic suburbanites. And if it causes concern, it is not changing suburban views to deal with protests: even among those to whom it seems likely, the majority would still think Is that the way to stop them is done by the police instead of police reforms.

The parties also see the targets of the protestors differently. Democrats and Republican heads agree that protesters are trying to change the way police treat minorities, but most Democrats and independents also think protesters are raising issues of racial discrimination and working in peace Are trying Most Republicans do not think the protesters intend to do so. Instead, nine out of about 10 Republicans feel that the majority of protestors are trying to destroy property, and seven out of 10 Republicans say they believe most protesters are trying to overthrow the government Have been.

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Like most registered voters around the country, Minnesota voters are frustrated with the way Mr. Trump is handling protests in American cities and says he encourages fighting rather than trying to calm the situation are doing. On the contrary, voters see Biden doing the opposite, and most approve to deal with the issue. Republicans see things differently: For them it is Mr. Trump who is trying to calm the situation and Biden who is encouraging the fight.

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Finally, once again looking at the larger electoral map, if Democrats hold Minnesota, it puts some additional pressure on Republicans to move around in Arizona, as both states hold the same number of electoral votes.


These surveys were conducted by YouGov on behalf of CG News from 9–11 September 2020. They are based on a representative sample of 1,122 registered voters in Arizona and 1,100 in Minnesota. The margin of error among registered voters is +/- 3.8 points in Arizona and +/- 3.6 points in Minnesota.

Topline: Arizona

Minnesota

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