Joe Biden has double digits less than three weeks from election day on President Trump, a new Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll of registered voters.
The poll also carries warning signs for Republican down-ballots. Democrats were ahead of Republicans by 8 points when voters were asked which party they planned to support Congress.
Voters appear more motivated by concerns about the direction of the country than their own economic gains.
Some 50% say they are better than they were four years ago, compared to 34% who say they are worse. However, 58% say the country is worse off than it was four years ago, compared to 38% who say it is better. Furthermore, more than 60% of voters say that the country is going in the wrong direction.
Economy was the No. 1 election issue among those polled, and voters gave Republicans a 13-point advantage over Democrats as superior economic managers. Nevertheless, voters said that in this election cycle, voters do not vote on the basis of that issue alone.
“Economy is the No. 1 issue. People are saying, ‘Yes, I think Trump is better on the economy,’ but he’s still behind, “said Bill McIntuff, a Republican pollster who also voted with Democrat Jeff Horwitt.
Mr. McInturf said a recent example of a Republican election that lost elections with voters to handle the economy was the midterm of 2018, in which Democrats got enough seats to take back control of the House.
Democrat Peter Hart, who also worked on the poll, said voters were overreacting to the economy. More than half of those polled said they were worried that Mr. Trump would divide the country rather than unify it. “In the 2020 presidential election, voters seek to recover physically, financially and psychologically,” Mr. Hart said.
Apart from an edge on the economy, there were some other positive signs for Mr. Trump. Based on 12 percentage points, voters consider the Republican Party better suited to combat crime. Voters are almost equally split on whether they want a president who faces and challenges the establishment — a hallmark of Mr. Trump’s style — or someone who will bring merit and compassion.
Polsters said that 88% of Mr. Trump’s support among Republicans — compared with 96% of Mr. Biden’s support among Democrats — suggested the president had room to extend his support in the final weeks before the election. Because the election is based on the electoral map and not the popular vote, the president needs to see the advantage in only a handful of states.
Misha Roberts, a Republican pollster who worked on the poll, said that Mr. Trump could pull off another electoral college victory by attracting new voters to the polls in Michigan, Florida and other swing states, “and that’s thousands And doesn’t take thousands of people. ”
While he tries to build support, Mr. Trump lags behind Mr. Biden on the prospect. In the last two elections, more voters have said they hold a positive view of Mr. Biden — albeit by one percentage point — than a negative one for the first time since 2018. By comparison, Mr. Trump’s negative views outpaced positive ones by 11 percentage points.
Mr. Horden said, Mr. Biden has improved his outlook during the campaign, which is remarkably characteristic of our politics.
Mr. Biden continues to receive benefits in 2016 with groups supporting Mr. Trump, such as seniors and white women. At the same time, Mr. Trump’s leadership weakened among some core parts of his base, including white people without college degrees.
Most voters are unhappy with the president’s response to the coronovirus epidemic. Some 41% approved, compared to their own 41% approval of Kovid-19 in the latest poll.
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Regarding their own coronavirus diagnosis, just one-quarter of those polled said the president was taking the necessary precautions, while 44% said he was taking unnecessary risks.
The Journal / NBC News poll interviewed 1,000 registered voters on 9–12 October. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Of the 1,000 voters, 42% identified as Democrats and 36% as Republicans – a 6-point margin that corresponds to Journal / NBC News polling through the year. Last month’s poll found a difference of 9 points, which pollsters said could be a result of voting in the presidential election after two days of confrontation. Journal / NBC News pollsters do not adjust the sample to match the predetermined portion of Democrats or Republicans.
Write Eliza Collins at [email protected]
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