Better’s calculation pays risk on Tom Brady’s move to Tampa

Professional bookie Mark Derasa was on the plane back from Atlantic City after last year’s Super Bowl when he got a clear picture of what would be one of the biggest scores of his career.

De Rosa believed that Tom Brady was about to leave New England in the offshin and Tampa Bay was one of the most likely landing spots. However, Sportsbooks disagreed and listed the Budner at about 50-1 in their aud, where Brady would play in the 2020 season. The bookies made Brady a heavy, awkward-to-be favorite to return to New England.

“The books were pricing it as if it was a 75% chance that it would return [to New England], “DeRosa said.” I felt there was a 75% chance that he would not come back, so the market was really closed. “

In Atlantic City for the Super Bowl, Derasa made two $ 500 bets in the 50-1 and 40-1 games with the DraftKings playing Brady over the Buccaneers. Then, back on the plane to Florida, he decided that he wanted to go down further in Tampa Bay the following season to win the NFC and Super Bowl. He would need to convince his old college friend and bookie Zac White that the Bucs were a good bet.

Tampa Bay ended the 7-9 campaign with quarterback Jemis Winston trailing 30 interceptions. It was the Buccaneers’ third consecutive losing season, and they were again considered long shots with Super Bowl odds in the 65–1 range.

“He had to talk to me a lot,” said White, a respected Las Vegas bookmaker. “His argument came down largely to Brady, going to go there.”

White asked Derasa what he thought was the possibility of Brady’s landing in Tampa Bay, “because if he doesn’t, the bet is terrible.”

DeRosa said he had a hunch, a well-argued one that was based on a number of signs that indicated Brady was leaving New England. Derasa recalled the 2018 ESPN story, uncovering the rift between Brady, Patriots coach Bill Belichick and owner Robert Draft. In August 2019, Derasa read that Brady had put his Massachusetts mansion up for sale, and he thought it was worthwhile that the six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback ended the contract for the first time in his career.

Derasa believed that Tampa Bay – due to coach-Bruce Arians’ displeasure with turnover-prone Winston, a roster filled with playmakers, hot weather and lack of state income taxes – was only a handful for Brady. Was one of

“Worst case you’ve got [Tampa Bay] 30-1 to win the NFC and 60-1 to the Super Bowl, and that’s just market value, “DeRosa argued with White last February.” If that happens, they’re going to be like 5-1 and 10-1, and I really think it’s going to happen. I don’t think he is coming back. I think he is going somewhere else. “

White was confident and went to work in Las Vegas, winning the Super Bowl at 65-1 and 60-1, placing several thousand dollars on the Buccaneers. Meanwhile, in Florida, DeRosa was monitoring the odds in the New Jersey Sportsbook and saw Borgata open the Bucs at 35–1 to win the NFC. Devarsa Instantly booked a flight to Atlantic City and placed an $ 8,000 wager on Tampa Bay to win the conference at 35-1.

When DeRosa and White were betting, they invested about $ 20,000 in the Bucs, which was around 65–1 to win the Super Bowl and 35–1 to win the NFC. Each took small positions on some teams, DeRosa on the Los Angeles Chargers and White on the Saints, but their biggest investment was on the Bucs.

On March 20, Brady signed a two-year deal with the Buccaneers, whose Super Bowl odds dramatically improved the sports books. When the season began, Tampa Bay was around 10–1 to win the Super Bowl and 5–1 to win the NFC, as Derasa had anticipated.

In the midst of the season, things did not go too well for the bookies. They lost three of four in November, including a 38–3 setback to the Saints, falling 7-5.

“A little disappointment,” White said with a pinch about Tampa Bay’s Midderson Swon, “But this is the NFL, man, you don’t count anyone to the end.

“There was always that much value off in those big-money tickets,” White said. “You could have benefited the season much earlier than the numbers we had.”

Each reduced their risk by slightly taking the Washington football team +9.5 into the division round of the playoffs against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay won by eight. For the most part, however, they were tight and plan for the Super Bowl. The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog for the Kansas City Chiefs.

“I’m not big on hedging,” DeRosa said.

In their late 30s, DeRosa and White both competed together in the Appalachian state and have been betting professionally for over a decade. They have already scored six points on the Bucs and are in position for the biggest score of their career on any game if Tampa Bay wins the Super Bowl.

“We were about $ 11,000 or so to win $ 400,000 on the NFC Championship,” DeRosa said. “And then we’ve got like $ 8,000 or $ 9,000 to win the Super Bowl at 60-1.

“So, go to the books.”


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