Bahadur Dodgers NLCS position-by-situation analysis –

Bahadur Dodgers NLCS position-by-situation analysis

If you were to head over the hard-hit rate leaderboard, you would see two teams topping the National League Championship Series: 1) Dodgers, then 2) Brave. Okay, that tracks. Tons of good tents there. They tied with each other for the best team, slipping in percentage in baseball at .483.
Now check the pitching version, and let’s see who is Stopped Hard-Hit Contact Most: 1) Dodgers, then 2) Brave. Ahh. Okay, there you go. Hit the ball harder. Do not let the other team hit the ball harder. Success will follow

• Camping World, Game 1: NLCS Presented by Mon, 8pm ET on FOX

This is the simplest and most obvious thing in the world – easier said than done, frankly far away – but if you can pull it off, you’ll get too far in the game. By definition, one of these teams is going to represent the NL in the World Series. but who? Neither have lost a postseason game yet.
Let’s look at them, situation by situation, to see who has the advantage, but let’s warn you directly: We will use OPS + – which adjusts for park factors and competition – our choice of living stat. In form of. It is not going to be easy. (And not just because Will Smith can face Will Smith in a big spot.) These rosters have a lot of talent. Edges will be thin. Nowhere, perhaps, is going to be hard to decide on this…

sport The date Time To match TV
Village 1 12 October 8 pm ATL @ LAD Fox
Village 2 13 October TBD ATL @ LAD FOX / FS1
Village 3 14 October TBD LAD @ ATL FOX / FS1
Village 4 15 October TBD LAD @ ATL FOX / FS1
* 5 grams 16 October TBD LAD @ ATL FOX / FS1
* 6 grams 17 October TBD ATL @ LAD FOX / FS1
* Village 7 18 October TBD ATL @ LAD FOX / FS1

… where the Dodgers and Braves had two of the top four best-hitting catchers in baseball.
Is it possible that young Will Smith is already the best hitting backstop in baseball? correct. It was this year. He has been in the last two seasons. We know he won’t start every day – Austin Barnes is likely to catch Clayton Kershaw, and Barnes has only 73 OPS + in the last three seasons – but he hit only 22 times in 137 plate appearances, and his hard work. Hard – This rate is similar to Nelson Cruz. He is very good.
The thing is, the Braves have their own quality backstops. Travis D’Arnaud noted throughout the year that his 58% hard-hit rate was somehow second only to that of Fernando Tatis Jr., and he hit two big homers in the NL Division Series. Tyler Flowers hasn’t been much of a hit and won’t play much, but like Barnes, he has long been rated as a high-quality pitch framer. There are a lot of similarities here, and it’s really hard to choose.
Small Benefits: Dodgers
first base
Max Muncy is a very good hitter (145 OPS + in 2018–19), who did not have a particularly good season in 2020 (97 OPS +), and despite a few well hit balls, a lot throughout the postseason He has not been able to make his way through the vast globe life field. We want to offer some underlying matrices that show that he is a better hitter than what he has shown, and he is, but it does not matter, because…
… Freddy Freeman of Atlanta is almost certainly going to win the NL Most Valuable Player Award, which has not only enhanced his status as one of the most prominent targets of the last 10 years, but by expanding it, one An absurd .462 OBP with a career-best 186 BPS + posting. The Dodgers have a good first baseman; There is a great among the Braves.
Advantage: brave

second base
The Dodgers were expected to do something with a revolving door at second base, but Chris Taylor has started every postson game so far. He had a strong season (128 OPS +); He has been an above-average hitter in each of his four full years with the Doggers, posting 116 OPS + since 2017; He has added value with flexibility, as he has finished in left field in four of the five matches he started in second place.
He does not have the young star power of 23-year-old Ozzie Albies, apparently who came in 2017 as a phenom and proves it again in the next two years. But his 2020 was a lot more decent (99 OPS +, a .306 OBP) great, and the fielding metrics don’t love him as much as he did in 2018. In the next three, five, 10 years, you are completely choosing Albies. Next week?
Advantage: Dodgers
We try not to put too much emphasis on postseason numbers in these, as a dozen or so plates appear against high-quality pitching, which doesn’t tell you all that much, but Corey Seeger did the MVP-caliber season (152 OPS +). , He has also got a .947 OPS in The Postsman. He started hitting on Day 1 of the brief season and never stopped, coming in as baseball’s second best hitting shotstop this year. (For Treat Turner, not Tatis.)
Dansby Swanson had a strong season for Atlanta, (110 OPS +), continuing a run where he has increased his offense each year since 2017, and if you’re picking on defense between the two, You’re probably leaning towards Swanson. However, the advantage of Caesar’s kill is considerable.
Advantage: Dodgers

Third base
From year to year, Justin Turner keeps humming. It has now been seven years since his arrival at the Dodgers’ Clubhouse, and we have long been surprised by his transition from “one of baseball’s best haters” to the “Meetling backup infielder non-tender by Mets”. Turner had a 135 OPS + this year around some injury problems, and has got a 139 OPS + with the Dodgers dating back to 2014. If you like compatibility, he is the West Coast, left-wing version of Freeman.
Austin Riley of Atlanta did a creditable job at Hot Corner after the passing of Josh Donaldson, but cannot be compared with Turner for the second consecutive season with 86 OPS +. (He got there a different way, though, dropping his strikeout rate from 36% to 24%, but with a tradeoff of 56-point drop in slugging percentage.)
Advantage: Dodgers
Left field
You would think the Dodgers had a platoon here, AJ Pollak against the Left and against Joc Pederson against the Right, but Pollak starts every day, so maybe they don’t. Pollock bounced back from a somewhat disappointing Dodgers slug .566 (134 OPS +) and tied for the team lead with 16 homers. Pedersen is available, and Taylor often comes here late in the innings for defense.
It should be noted that Adam Duvall had a fairly good comeback after spending the most in Triple Due-201 and posted a minus-5 OPS + – yes, minus-5 – in 33 matches for Atlanta in 2018. Duval Mashed 16 homers including two three-homer games. He is also a quietly underrated defender, though he is held slightly back by the .301 OBP which puts his season line at 113 OPS +.
Advantage: Dodgers
The Central Zone
Well, Cody Bellinger is the most valuable player defending, after being a two-year unanimous rookie, and until he had a great season by his standards (113 OPS +), you did See that catch, right? (And Homer he collapsed earlier in the game?) This is an incredible player who, compared, gets very few crosses.
Luckily for Atlanta, this is the one. Bellinger’s down-ish season makes Ronald Acuna Jr.’s 155 OPS + even better, and it’s not as if he’s without his own Rookie of the Year award or lacks his great postseason moments this year.
Advantage: Please do not let us choose between Ronald Acuna Jr. and Cody Bellinger. Braves.

Right field
Mookie Bates has hit 15 balls this postson, and 12 of them have been hit hard, or exhaust velocities of over 95 mph. It’s an 80% hard-hit rate, the best in Major, and you didn’t Actually Another way is needed to understand that Bates is one of baseball’s brightest stars, but another one. His first year in Los Angeles was one of his best (149 OPS +), and he hardly slowed down in October with five doubles and 1.066 OPS.
On the other hand, Nick Markakis was having some trouble deciding not to return to the team shortly after the season started, and not inadvertently. (His 84 OPS + was the weakest of his career, though the contact rate was above average.)
Advantage: Dodgers
designated hitter
The Dodgers do not have a primary DH, and not all seasons. You’ll see Pederson here, and Smith gets a start here when Barnes is behind the plate. If there’s one thing the Dodgers don’t have, it’s “lack of a good hitter,” and we haven’t even mentioned Enrique Hernández’s presence off the bench.
But the Braves here are far more dangerous, and that is Marcel Ozuna, who came out of a pair of OK-but-not-great seasons in St. Louis to absolutely mash in Atlanta, 18 homer to 1.067 OPS. Killing with a 175 Ops +. He is a particularly poor fielder, but with DH in the NL, it doesn’t matter that much; Ozuna did not play a single inning in the field against the Reds or Marlins, and is unlikely to find his glove against the Dodgers.
Advantage: brave

Start pitching
Despite his inconsistent postson track record, Clayton Kershaw threw against the Brewers (13 strikeouts, 1 walk, no runs), one of the greatest October games in Drewers history, and then was solid enough against the Diego lineup in Game 2 . NLDS also. Walker Buehler is an ace on most teams, including maybe this one, and they can follow with some combination of Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Game 3 hero Julio Uris, though Dodgers fans can be forgiven Hai if not really loved “May”. “Sheenanigans who preceded it” as an opener.
The Braves are still feeling the loss of Mike Soroka for an aching tear in August, but Max Fried blossomed as a true Cy Young contender, while Ian Anderson hit a 1.95 ERA in six 2-season starts late Posted, the innings that began before the 11/3 outstanding shutdown postseason. However, he did not face such a crime in October, and the open question behind the big two is in depth. Kyle Wright threw six century innings to end the NLDS – after a 5.21 ERA in the regular season – but the team has yet to use the fourth starter, given a back-to-back sweep. Nonetheless, four shutdowns in five games were incredibly impressive, opposing offense quality or not.
Advantage: Dodgers
Relief pitching
It won’t be October if you don’t want to ask some questions about the Dodgers bullpen. It was actually a very good unit this season, as they had the lowest ERA in NL (2.74), and the rookies Brussel Gretrall and Victor Gonzalez gave Dave Roberts some new ground-ball weapons; In fact the bullpen led the Major in Ground Rate (51%). But despite the sweep, back-end questions arose, such as how much Canle Jenson could be relied on in the rapidly dwindling, and Jake McGee (16 strikeouts and zero walks) at the September 10 performance did not find a place in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Braves spent a lot of time and money consolidating their bullpen last winter, and it mostly worked. The Atlanta bullpen has allowed the fewest postshaven slugging (.150) and OBP (.186) for any of those eight teams, making it the NLDS, and two of the biggest names – Will Smith and Mark Melancon – to face. Is composed for. 26 batsmen and 26 dismissed. Not sleeping, too, on Secret Weapon (or “Death Star,” if you wish) Tyler Matzek, who has killed 8 of the 12 posters this postman after a five-year absence from Majors.
Advantage: brave
These are two very strong teams, as you can probably tell from the fact that neither have lost a postseason game yet. Despite Atlanta’s bullpen advantage, choosing against this Dodgers team is tough. Dodger in 7.

Mike petrillo Is an analyst for and host of the Ballpark Dimensions podcast.


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