Both Marvel films have very good reviews and a fanatical fanatic, but only one will be the king of the national box office.
Will "Avengers: Infinity War" "Reaching the level of" Black Panther "in North America? Three months ago, that question would be a sacrilege. , on its tenth weekend, "Black Panther" is still in the top 10, where it is likely to stay at least one more weekend, should end around $ 700 million in gross national, $ 1,360 billion worldwide.
Almost certainly, "Avengers" will be the best "Black Panther" in the gross world. "Black Panther" earned around $ 650 million abroad, but recent Marvel releases, including "Avengers: Age of Ultron ", saw a foreign participation of 65/35, with nearly $ 1 billion abroad.
Weekend estimates for "Avengers: Infinity War" are approximately $ 200 million, more than $ 20 million; "Black Panther" opened at $ 241.9 during the holiday weekend of President's Day. Here are the cases of "Black Panther" and "Avengers: Infinity War;" As always, all the box office figures are adjusted.
Why "Black Panther" could be thicker
- "Black Panther" was an independent social phenomenon backed by strong criticism and original elements that made it stand out earlier this year, with Limited competition of box office successes. It is difficult to see what factors have another title of "Avengers" that comes close to doubling their appeal.
- With $ 700 million, it will be effectively linked with the first "Avengers" (2012) as the biggest Marvel (or for that matter, comic book movie) by adjusting to the prices of the 2018 tickets. It's a number very large, in fact the largest other than "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" in 2012.
- Only once before – in 2015, with "Force Awakens" and "Jurassic World" – have two movies released in the same year reached that total. Two in the first half of a year would have no precedents.
- As in other genres, the more time has passed since the last hit, the greater the momentum for the next. It's been 72 days since "Panther" was released, the shortest gap between the main Marvel films.
- The first "Avengers" raised $ 705 million; the second $ 491 million. Historically, when a third Marvel entry surpasses its predecessors, it is surpassing securities that fell in the range of $ 200 million to $ 400 million. Getting $ 500 million for the third installment would be fantastic (it's great for any movie). To reach $ 700 million would be historic.
- We have a recent precedent of a joint title that followed a great comic book success. "Wonder Woman" at the end of last summer surprised the industry as a superhero movie that grossed more than $ 400 million. "Justice League" followed five months later with all the main characters of D.C. Comics, including Wonder Woman, and raised about $ 230 million. The momentum did not advance.
Why "Infinity War" Could Gross More
- "Black Panther" changed everything. Yes, they have used steroids for years (nine movies over $ 400 million so far), but with "Panther" approaching $ 700 million, it showed that the power of the brand is even more vital than their fans could have expected. . The two titles of "Avengers" and "Panther" are three of the five most important titles of Marvel, and the new title of "Avengers" could prepare to have the same success.
- "Panther" also added many viewers who were generally less interested in Marvel movies. Unlike some studies, Disney does not disclose racial / ethnic demographics, but a 2015 study of Facebook Marvel fan sites showed that 11 percent of its members were African-American and 19 percent were Latino. According to studies conducted outside of Disney, "Black Panther" showed an audience of 35 percent African-Americans and 17 percent Latinos. "Panther" clearly shows that the appeal of Marvel is universal, but that title (not unexpectedly) thrived with black viewers (who are normally 14 percent of ticket buyers). In addition to Black Panther, "Infinity" features most of the Marvel characters (Sony's Spider-Man, but not Fox-X-Men or Deadpool). Is the remaining interest worth between $ 100 million and $ 200 million for "Infinity"? You will need to go through to achieve parity.
- "Avengers: Infinity War" begins the "summer" movie season on the last weekend of April, a weekend before the May date owned by Marvel since "Spider-Man 3" in 2007. That extra week of respite is a great strategy. The launch of "Black Panther" in mid-February had the luxury of limited competition (it raised five times more than any other 2018 release, an incredible dominance). It will be May soon, and great films will be opened, but in its first three weeks "Avengers" is facing only "The Life of the Party" by Melissa McCarthy as a possible success. (Marvel's own "Deadpool 2" and Disney's "Solo: A Star Wars Story" will appear on May 18 and May 24, removing some wind from the candles.)
- With a weekend of Opening of $ 200 million and $ 250 million or more in the first week, "Avengers" could reach $ 500 million after three weeks, just as summer is about to begin. A great initial response means that it could rise much more.
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