As Brexit Deadlines Loom, The Posturing and Bickering Flare Again

London – Bellisos threatens to walk away from the bargaining table. Continued claims of British sovereignty and a promise not to become a “client state” of Europe. Oman’s discussion of the resurgence of a difficult border in Ireland.

Seven months after Britain exited the European Union, a “no-deal Brexit” with negotiations over a permanent trade deal has fallen into a familiar circle of repetition, brittleness and warnings, the same horrors that British politics Dominate over a year ago.

On Monday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson threatened to break talks if a deal was not reached until the official deadline of 31 October, 15, two and a month ago. 31. And his government drafted legislation that could undermine parts of the political settlement relating to Northern Ireland, that it struck last October to withdraw from the bloc after 47 years.

Yet for all Groundhog Day-like similarities, Britain is in a very different place than it was a year ago – ejected from Europe, consumed by the fight against coronoviruses and facing an economic crisis that has already led to Mr Has snatched up popularity. Johnson’s Conservative Government.

According to experts, Mr Johnson took little advantage to advance the European Union on disputed points of state subsidies of British industry and fishing rights. Brussels has shown no signs of yields, particularly on subsidies, all but guaranteed that the latest round of negotiations, the deadlock will end this week in London.

Mr Johnson was preparing the ground for some sort of breakdown, stressing that a no-deal Brexit would be a “good outcome” for Britain that would give it control over its laws and fishing waters, and trade it Will free to make. Belongs to other countries including the United States.

“We will be powerfully rich as a result,” he declared.

Analysts rejected this to a large extent, aimed at hard-line Brexiteers in his party and designed to send a message that Mr. Johnson would be tougher than his predecessor Theresa May.

But legislation affecting Northern Ireland, previously reported by The Financial Times, was an unexpected development that could have far-reaching consequences not only with the Irish, but also with the European Union and the United States.

Under the terms of its withdrawal agreement, Britain signed a complex series of customs arrangements that would preserve an open border on the island of Ireland. The proposed legislation will give Britain a free hand in how it will decide to implement those arrangements if it does not reach an agreement with the bloc – an aggressive move that attracts expressions of concern from Irish and EU leaders.

Democratic presidential candidate, Joseph R. Other defenders in Ireland, including Biden Jr., will likely look down on any basis of agreement for the Good Friday Accord, ending decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland. This, in turn, could jeopardize a trade negotiation with Washington – something that President Trump, an ardent supporter of Brexit, has enthusiastically endorsed.

“The UK government wants to see how the US plays the election,” said Anand Menon, professor of European politics at King’s College London. “The election results are going to have a huge impact on this government.”

Many so-called experts said that the withholding of the so-called Northern Ireland protocol would make it even more difficult for Britain to conclude a trade deal with the European Union, as negotiators in Brussels would look at their British counterparts with even more skepticism. Will demand useful language.

“They will say: ‘You are refusing to implement the agreement we have already made. How can we negotiate a new agreement with you?'” Sam Lowe, a research group in London, Center for European Reform Said an expert on business.

British officials suggested that they were planning to rip the settlement. Mr Lowe said that as part of an effort to reduce this, he is trying to increase Britain’s leverage to see that it is on the driver’s seat.

He said any changes would be likely to apply to bureaucratic procedures, such as companies having to file declarations to ship goods from Northern Ireland to Britain.

As the negotiations are ground, both sides have dug in their heels. The European Union is demanding that Britain agree on regulations that would prevent it from putting state subsidies into businesses that can export freely to the continental market. The British want the freedom to support companies in emerging high-tech fields such as biotechnology and artificial intelligence.

So far, London has not produced any opposition. It sparked a sharp rebuke from chief European negotiator, Michel Barnier, who told an Irish research institute last week that Britain had “not engaged constructively” and accused it of “lack of engagement” on core questions.

Mr Johnson’s chief negotiator, David Frost, fired back in an interview with the Mail on Sunday, stating that Britain would never become a “client state” of the European Union.

Such words, some analysts said, showed that the debate over Brexit took place more than four years after Britain matured, when the country voted to leave the bloc. But they also capture the depth of feeling among some officials in Mr Johnson’s government of the need for a tight line Brexit, in which Britain will be as far away from the EU as possible.

The question is whether Mr. Johnson can afford a failed negotiation. His popularity has already made an assumption on the course of the epidemic as his conservative government has capitalized on its response. In Keir Starr, he faces a more capable leadership in the opposition Labor Party, as he did with previous leader Jeremy Corbyn.

The no-deal Brexit will accelerate calls for independence in Scotland, where elections are already showing increased support for leaving the United Kingdom. Nationalists in Northern Ireland would likely seize any indication that Britain was not meeting its promises about the border to call for the reintegration of Ireland.

Despite all the theatricalities, analysts said they believed Mr Johnson would eventually sign a deal with Brussels, as he did last year after a period of similar brittleness. With only two and a half months left before the deadline, the danger is that he may run out of time incorrectly or simply, especially if his government becomes too busy to deal with the second wave of coronovirus.

“Boris Johnson still wants a deal, he still needs a deal,” said Mujtaba Rahman, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultant. “Rising temperatures were unavoidable, and there is a belief that this is the key window to the deal. But through all of this, it is very difficult to be assured that a deal will happen. “

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