Arrow the Diamond Princess, Case Study in Aerosol Transmission


“We’re being surprised all the way,” Dr. Connie said. “This paper I find interesting, but it has been a long time in my mind to be able to go into a line of credibility.”

Dr. Professor of Epidemiology at the University of California at San Francisco. George Rutherford was equally suspicious. He said that, outside the hospital settings, “there are large drops of cases in my mind. Aerosol Transmission – If you actually run with it, it creates a lot of inconsistency. Are there situations where this can happen? Yes maybe, but it is a small amount. “

Dr. Tang and other scientists strongly disagree. “If I’m talking to an infectious person for 15 or 20 minutes and breathing some of their air,” Dr. Tang said, “Isn’t this a much simpler way to explain transmission than touching an infected surface and touching your eyes? When you’re talking about an outbreak, like in a restaurant, then the latter Seems to be a cruel way to explain transmission. “

In the new analysis, a team led by Param Azmi, an indoor-air researcher at Harvard’s TH Chan School of Public Health, studied the outbreak at Diamond Princess, where physical spaces and infections were well documented. It ran over 20,000 simulations of how the virus could spread throughout the ship. Each simulation made a variety of assumptions about factors such as patterns of social interaction – how much time people spend in their cabins, on the deck or in the cafeteria, on average – and the amount of time they can occur on virus surfaces. Each also spanned individual contributions of small, floating droplets, roughly defined as 10 μm or smaller; And larger drops, which fall more quickly and infect surfaces or others, land on their eyes, mouths or noses, he says.

About 130 of the people reproduced to some extent, which actually occurred on the Diamond Princess as the outbreak progressed. By analyzing these most “realistic” scenarios, the research team calculated the most likely contribution of each route of transmission. Researchers concluded that small droplets pre-transmitted, and within a few yards of the infectious individual and at greater distances, were responsible for about 60 percent of new infections.

“Many people have argued that air is broadcasting, but no one had the numbers for it,” Dr. Azimi said. “What is the contribution from these small drops – is it 5 percent, or 90 percent? In this paper, we provide the first real approximation as to what might be the least in the case of this cruise ship. “

Experts said the rationale behind such broadcasting is straightforward. When a person is speaking, they emit a cloud of droplets, most of which is small enough to remain suspended in the air for a few minutes or longer. Through inhalation, small droplets are more likely to reach the mucus membrane than the mucus in that cloud.

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