3:36 AM PDT 9/14/2020
B. Riley’s Eric Wald also expresses optimism for the domestic outlook going next year and raises his price target on AMC theaters.
While the domestic box office debut for Warner Bros. ‘ theory Widely described as taped, an analyst said he sees it as a good sign. “We see this as a really encouraging result and a positive indicator of demand given all COVID-19 headwanders,” B Riley relay analyst Eric Wald wrote in a report Monday.
The analyst echoed Warner Bros.’s argument that this was a promising sign theory The weekend fell just 29 percent from the $ 9.4 million earned during the weekend 4-6, even though it is not an apples-to-apples comparison as the film rolled over the long Labor Day weekend and is now playing in 100 more theaters.
“Recognizing that this is not entirely apple-to-apple, we also feel a drop of nearly 29 percent from last weekend’s three-day total, as measured by the filmmakers’ potentially long legs. Is the signal, ”Wald argued.
Regarding the $ 20.2 million long Labor Day weekend, the analyst said: “Before the COVID-19 epidemic, we were expecting an opening weekend for the first week theory $ 50 million in- $ 55 million limit. New York City, LA and San Francisco accounting for the shortfall (which drives about 25 percent of the domestic box office) and about a 50 percent capacity restriction, with $ 20.2 million to an adjusted $ 18.8 million- $ 20.6 million Will generate the opening. Opening at the high end of that range. ”
Wald also expressed optimism for the box office outlook on Monday. “While many headwaves (eg, major market balances, capacity restrictions, film slate shifts, etc.) remain, we actually see some encouraging signs from the early weeks that continue to give us optimism in 2021-plus, “He added Imax Corp., Marcus Corp. And Cinema ad giants reiterated their “buy” ratings on National CineMedia shares and raised their price targets on “neutral” -based AMC theaters from $ 4 to $ 5.50.
But saying that the film’s slate shift remains a “short-lived sentiment wildcard”, he said: “The latest setback for the calendar on Friday was confirmation that Warner Bros. was underway. Wonder Woman 1984 Given the improved balance sheet for each of the exhibitors – from 10/2 to 12/25 – only to be seen as a minor box office shift from first quarter 2021 to first quarter 2021. ”
Noting that the focus was on New York City, LA and San Francisco, Wold said he would “see any film previously released.” [those markets open] As training moves past 2021-plus, our focus is on any short-term outcome. ”