An ‘extreme’ August on the stock market can tell us something about the November election


We are closing what may be the best August for stocks since 2000. But after Friday’s record for the S&P 500 SPX, Monday is starting to falter slightly.
+ 0.03%
And the Nasdaq Composite Comp,
+ 0.64%.

Of course, autumn and winter are coming, summer is beginning for an American electoral race and the COVID-19 fight and all the battles that come with it. That brings us to us Phone of the day, From BTIG’s chief equity and derivatives strategist Julian Emanuel, who says an extremely strong August for stocks – the S&P 500 is up 7.2% through August 28 – can tell us a little about who won the White House in November Huh.

Emanuel states in a note, “At first glance, August’s strength does well in Donald Trump’s election – in the three months preceding the November election, positive S&P 500 returns led to a party presidential victory for 85.7% of the time. has achieved.”
But going back to 1928, when the stock rose 5% or more in August, and June to August returns were the top 25%, the market often struggled in September and October. “And while the S&P 500 is down through the end of August through the election, the incumbent party has lost to the White House on all six occasions,” he said.

Another sharp, and high-speed climb followed by a steep and high climb, notes the political uncertainty against the political, social, public health and “precariously Nasdaq-100” moving the stakes. But he says that it is difficult to tell if we are in the beginning, middle or end.
This is determined by its chart of the Nasdaq-100 NDX,
+ 0.79%
And the Cobb NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index (VXN), a key measure of market expectations for swings contained in take-heavy gauges.
“The last time both NDX and VXN simultaneously rose to this degree in January 2018, the period before it was known as ‘Volmadden’, which was Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge – the Kobe Volatility Index VIX.
+ 8.97%
Increased to levels not seen in 20 years.
His advice: Own call – a fixed bet on an asset that gives investors rights but is not obligated to buy the underlying asset at a fixed price by a certain date – on QWQ QQQ,
+ 0.78%
An exchange-traded fund that tracks the Nasdaq-100 index. He has also suggested that he calls himself – a recessionary bet that works contrary to the call – on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM,
-0.59%

market

Mixed markets opened with Dow DJIA.
-0.52%
, S&P SPX,
+ 0.03%
And Nasdaq Comp,
+ 0.64%
SXXP, lower and European shares than flat
-0.17%
– Minus London, closed for vacation – lost land. Nikkei 225 NIK,
+ 1.12%
Berkshire Hathaway gained in Asia after placing bets on Japan’s financials (see eagle).

Chart

Goldman Sachs says that year-over-year, 43% of women-managed funds have outperformed their benchmarks versus only 41% of those who have no female managers.

A team led by David Costin, chief US equity strategist at Goldman, explains: “Men may be from Mars and women from Venus, but women-managed funds tend to lean toward information technology while non-women managed funds prefer financial Huh.”

The buzz

IPhone maker Apple AAPL shares,
+ 3.58%
And electric car company Tesla TSLA,
+ 7.61%
Start trading on a split-adjusted basis on Monday, and both are higher in the premarket. Here is another major Dow change you should be aware of.
Aimmune therapeutic shares of AIMT,
+ 171.46%
Swiss food group Nestle is rocketing after NSRGY,
+ 0.79%
NESN,
+ 0.62%
Announced a share price of $ 2.6 billion for the biopharmaceutical group.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire BRK.A,
+ 0.33%
BRK.B,
+ 0.27%
The group said it would take bets in Japan’s Mitsubishi 8058,
+ 7.71%,
Mitsui 8031,
+ 7.34%,
Sumitomo 8053,
+ 9.08%,
Itchu 8001,
+ 4.18%
And Marubeni 8002,
+ 9.48%,
Sending shares of those financial groups on Monday.
To entice passengers, United Airlines UAL,
-2.86%
Will drop his unpopular $ 200 fee to change a ticket for a domestic trip.
New Beijing sanctions could hamper the potential sale of Tiktok’s US operations. The parent company is under pressure from the Chinese technology firm BiteDance White House to sell it or face a ban.

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