New research suggests that by the middle of April in the US, 6.4 million cases of coronovirus were already officially higher than on Thursday.
Researchers at the University of California, Berkeley calculated that as of April 18, the actual number of infections was nine times higher than the 712,000 reported by the CDC, considering them to be a heavy undercount due to insufficient or incorrect testing.
According to Johns Hopkins University, 6.38 million US cases were confirmed as of 10 September.
Testing has increased considerably in the US – but if many people may have coronovirus from the spring as just confirmed, the real case number is a mystery, and possibly much more.
This is a serious view on the early proliferation of coronaviruses – but the upside is that by April the Berkeley team estimated cases were higher, and 20 percent of the population needed antibodies to reach herd immunity, the US could is. Closer than before.
The number of confirmed coronovirus cases was estimated to be closest, as of April, in states such as New York and Washington (green), which were quickly hard-hit, while inequality was higher in places like California and Texas (dark blue) , Where infection later peaked
Scientists at UC Berkeley calculated that the actual number of coronovirus infections in the US as of April 18 is three to 20 times higher than the confirmed Centers for Control and Prevention (CDC) cases.
The inequality spread widely from state-to-state, and as a result, their mathematical model was an estimate of the actual national number number.
On April 18, the US conducted a total of 146,156 coronovirus trials, according to COVID tracking project data.
Today, 614,042 trials were conducted in the US – four times as many were being done in April.
President Donald Trump claimed on April 27 that the US had tested for coronaviruses ‘more than every country combined’.
But the new study blames ‘incomplete’ testing for 86 percent of the undercount of coronovirus testing as of April 18.
Granted, a portion of that inadequate testing took place in the US in the first months of the epidemic, when the CDC sent faulty tests, private sector kits were just tricking the market, and given the lack of testing . Abolished america
The UC Berkeley authors attributed the remaining 14 percent disparity between their April case estimates and the CDC’s inaccurate tests.
Nearly enough people were not tested to get an accurate estimate of coronovirus cases in the spring in most states, according to UC Berkeley scientists who suggest the infection was nine times more than the official count as of April 18
Wrongly testing aside, during those first few months of the epidemic, the CDC recommended that coronovirus only test people with symptoms.
At that time, the only relevant symptoms were considered fever, persistent cough and shortness of breath.
Most states followed that recommendation, which was made for the protection of large-scale trials that were still in short supply, and in part to limit further risks from visiting test sites.
But now, research shows that 30 to 70 percent of people with COVID-19 have no symptoms or develop only mild ones.
In addition, with a better understanding of the widespread effect of COVID-19, the list of symptoms associated with infection includes many symptoms that were previously dismissed, including nausea, vomiting, headache, and taste and smell. Includes loss of.
“Thus, a substantial number of mild or asymptomatic infections in the US can be reduced,” the UC Berkeley author wrote.
It was not a CDC discouraging American from taking mild symptoms seriously as signs of COCID-19; President Trump himself described the disease as ‘flu-like’.
Interviews with Bob Woodward suggest that Trump also knew better. The president told Woodward that he knew the coronovirus was fatal from the flu in February – but did not want to create ‘panic’ by talking about the true severity of the epidemic.
Some states, such as New York, now encourage anyone who wants a coronovirus to be tested. The CDC states that ‘not everyone needs to be tested,’ and recommends testing for people who have symptoms, are in contact with someone with COVID-19, or who have their health care provider or The local health department has directed to conduct an investigation.
With a huge increase in testing, a recent Rockefeller Foundation and Duke University report suggested that the US needed to conduct approximately 200 million tests every month. About 20 million are run in a month.
UC Berkeley authors could not be reached for comment, or an estimate of how many people have COVID-19.
But even if no infection had been missed since April 18 of the period of his study, if his estimate of American cases for that date is correct, his model would suggest that more than 12 million Americans COVID-19 has occurred.