In 2019, every NFL trade is plausible. Imagine if you had told them last year that the Steelers would trade Antonio Brown for third and fifth round picks, or that the Giants really left Odell Beckham Jr. and said that Jabrill Peppers and the first and third round elections were too good offer to refuse. You would have stopped reading this article. However, here we are.
Every April, I read well-intentioned simulated drafts that do not include any negotiations in the middle of their 32 selections. I know it's the reality of building a simulated draft: it's hard enough to project where the prospects will go, much less where the exchanges might happen, but it also leaves out a lot of what makes the draft fun. Last year, only 12 of the first 27 selections were made by teams that originally had those selections. There were three draft operations in the first 14 selections. Your hypocrisy Do a simulation project without trades.
When: April 25-27
Where: Nashville, Tennessee
How to look Application ABC / ESPN / ESPN
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With that in mind, I offer an annual first-round draft consisting of entirely of trades. It is not exactly the same as a traditional simulation, because each of the 32 operations exists in a different universe in which the other operations have not taken place. The goal is to try to see how an organization can address a specific opportunity in its place in the draft, given the history of its general manager, the current needs and the needs of the teams that surround them.
As a result, you will see several teams changing by Josh Rosen or going up to catch someone like Rashan Gary at different points in my 2019 project. I am suggesting that there are scenarios in which each of those operations might make sense if you select them in advance. They are on a certain path. I have used Jimmy Johnson's table to evaluate the relative value of operations; In cases where teams normally overpaid with the traditional table, such as when they use selections from future drafts, I have tried to overpay. I'm not suggesting that any particular movement is smart or stupid, only that I could see a scenario where both teams could find the logic to make a move.
One final note: for the picks in the 2019 draft, I scored the selections with their round and their place in the overall draft order. That means that the 13th pick in the first round is written as 1-13.
Let's start with a rare exchange scenario for the Cardinals who does not make include Rosen …
Skip to an interesting selection:
1. ARI | 4. OAK | 6. NYG | 11. CIN
15. WSH | 24. OAK | 28. LAC | 32. NE
The cardinals get: 1-4, 1-24, 2-35
The badailants obtain: 1-1, 3-65
If the Cardinals finally decide to stay with quarterback Josh Rosen, they should be able to establish a reasonable market for the senior team. Nobody thinks that the 49ers or the Jets are taking a quarterback in the numbers 2 or 3, but there is a chance that both teams are open to an exchange with a team interested in catching Kyler Murray before the Raiders, who could attack. The fourth global selection.
Draft Academy documents the trip of six prospects: Nick Bosa, Marquise Brown, Drew Lock, Tyree Jackson, Jarrett Stidham and Josh Jacobs. Watch on ESPN +
The Raiders, therefore, could very well be the most plausible candidates to switch to No. 1 and get their quarterback for Las Vegas. They have three first-round picks to work with, and although they are not that far from competing, the exchange would give the organization some final coverage for Khalil Mack's trade, given that the 24th elected new GM Mike Mayock Send to The Cardinals are one of the first-round players Gruden got from the Bears. If the Raiders trade for Murray and leave with a superstar quarterback, Mack's deal does not seem so bad.
Meanwhile, from Arizona's perspective, this is an opportunity to win an additional first round without losing a defender of the difference. If Murray goes first, the 49ers and the Jets appear to be inclined to attack the edge throwers Nick Bosa and Josh Allen. Arizona already has its star runner in Chandler Jones and added Terrell Suggs this offseason, but could use an inside disruptor like Alabama star Quinnen Williams. If the Cardinals do not select Murray at No. 1, Williams would be a logical choice. Here, they move down and put it in number 4 anyway.
The 49ers get: 1-6, 5-143, first round selection 2020, CB Janoris Jenkins
The giants get: 1-2, QB Nick Mullens, CB Ahkello Witherspoon
While the Giants could publicly deny their rebuilding with general manager Dave Gettleman, they have established a habit of getting rid of veterans of the Jerry Reese era while still having some commercial value. New York has dispatched guys like Eli Apple and Olivier Vernon in the last six months, and it would not be surprising if they continued to hand out Jenkins, 30, who is still two years old and $ 22.5 million left in his deal. Jenkins does not have the size that the teams playing in defense of the Seahawks Cover-3 typically want their corners, but it would be a great improvement at Witherspoon and would give the 49ers a pair of veteran cornerbacks along with Richard Sherman.
However, for the Niners, this exchange is more about adding a juicy first-round pick in 2020 to a team that has an inflated view of its own ability to compete this season. There is a good chance that the selection is better than the 17th selection, which the Giants hold as part of the Odell Beckham Jr.'s trade also restores a superior selection to replace the second round of 2020 that the 49ers sent to the Chiefs as part of the Dee Ford trade. After adding Ford, the Niners do not have such a pressing need for an edge runner; they must still be online to add someone like Montez Sweat or Devin White to supplement their defense with the sixth choice, or they could choose to change again.
On the other hand, the Giants are dangerously thin after exchanging Vernon and Jason Pierre-Paul for the past year. Ascending after an exchange of Kyler Murray would guarantee Nick Bosa, who could be the defensive block that the team desperately needs. They also have a possible quarterback of the future at Mullens, who was impressive in the middle of the season for Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers can play with C.J. Beathard as backup, while the Giants can turn to Mullens if, or after, Eli Manning has problems next season.
The jets get: 1-14, 3-79, first round selection 2020, DE Vic Beasley Jr.
The hawks get: 1-3, 4-105, conditional selection 2020
The Falcons need to add an impact corridor. They must also keep the space in the limit when they try to extend Grady Jarrett and Julio Jones this offseason, which makes Beasley's fifth-year option of $ 12.8 million unattractive. We know that the Falcons have made an all-in for a potential superstar in the past when they traded a future first-round pick to move from No. 27 to No. 6 in 2011 to Jones' draft. That movement worked, and if the Falcons see an equally impressive star in Nick Bosa or Josh Allen, it's not crazy to think they would do the same kind of movement to grab the edge their defense desperately needs.
It's a tougher sale for the Jets, who also need an edge runner after Anthony Barr left them at the altar in free agency. However, in a deep clbad, they would still have a great opportunity to add someone like Rashan Gary or Brian Burns with the 14th pick, so if they do not see who is in the No. 3 as a star, the move would be a sense . This franchise urgently needs additional selections after exchanging three second-round players as part of Sam Darnold's exchange.
They also take a pamphlet on Beasley, who led the NFL with 15.5 sacks in his second season, but has only 14 sacks combined in his other three seasons. The conditional selection here gives the Falcons a fifth round in 2020 if Beasley hits six sacks and a third round if he hits 10 sacks.
The badailants obtain: QB Matthew Stafford, 2-43
The lions get: 1-4
If they are the decision makers of Detroit, Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia, do they at least think about starting over with a young quarterback again? They inherited Stafford from the previous regime, and during his 10-year career, the first previous general pick took home $ 178 million, the fourth highest number of all players in the league. Stafford has achieved a Pro Bowl and has scored zero playoff victories during that period of time. While the latter is not entirely his fault, the product of Georgia does not seem to have the roof of a field marshal among the top five. He has pitched 5,405 professional pbades, and the Lions have just pbaded the happy pbad attack of former offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. This team does not seem to be close to winning a Super Bowl as it is currently built.
Making this exchange would give the Lions two of the eight best picks, which should be enough to recruit a quarterback and add a defender. Moving from No. 8 to No. 4 could give Josh Allen, Nick Bosa or Quinnen Williams a chance. He could also push them to the head of the Bucs if they want to catch linebacker Devin White, who Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN has to go to Tampa at number 5 in his latest simulated draft. Detroit would incur an astonishing $ 35.5 million in dead money at its 2019 cap, but given that the hit at Stafford's top is already a league high of $ 29.5 million, it's not a big difference.
Jon Gruden, meanwhile, may prefer Stafford, 31, to any of the rookies in this clbad. He has he publicly endorsed Stafford in the past and never pushed a highly recruited rookie as quarterback during his time as head coach, instead of preferring veterans like Rich Gannon and Jeff Garcia or half-round picks like Chris Simms and Bruce Gradkowski .
With the Stafford $ 50 million signature bonus already paid, the Raiders would inherit Stafford in what amounts to a four-year, $ 84 million contract, which would be a bargain for an average veteran. The Raiders would still lose their first choice in the process, but they would keep their two first-round players and get another second-round pick. Stafford pitching Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams would sell some tickets in Las Vegas. This agreement would make Derek Carr relatively null and void, but the Raiders could find a commercial market for him during the summer if they eat part of their base salary of $ 19.9 million.
The buccaneers get: 1-9, 2-40
The bills get: 1-5, 4-107
The Bucs could use defensive help, they could forever Use defensive help, but you're probably looking for a middle linebacker, cornerback or offensive tackle to replace Demar Dotson, and all those places should be available at No. 9. Tampa is probably safe to drop four places and pick a Pick. second round extra for the problem. It needs multiple holders in defense more than what an impact player needs.
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After spending the entire off-season working to build an offensive infrastructure around Josh Allen, meanwhile, the Bills may want to take this opportunity to work on their defense's future. Buffalo silently posted the second-best defensive DVOA in the league last season. While the defense is based on young stars like Tremaine Edmunds and Tre & # 39; Davious White, general manager Brandon Beane has to be thinking about the future on the defensive side. Jerry Hughes is a free agent after this season, Trent Murphy was not an impact player in his first year with the Bills, and Shaq Lawson has not impressed since the previous regime recruited him in the first round in 2016.
It is unlikely that Nick Bosa or Josh Allen were on the board at No. 5, but the trade would give the Bills the opportunity to choose the remaining rowers before the Giants at No. 6.
The giants get: 1-24, 4-106, 2020 first round selection
The badailants obtain: 1-6
If the Giants do not believe there is a franchise quarterback on the board for them at No. 6, their best move is to change to add as many draft selections as possible while replenishing their defense. If he led the team, he would also aim to get out of this draft with an additional first round in 2020, which could be useful if the Giants finally tackle his quarterback quest in next year's draft.
When that selection belongs to the Raiders, who barely had 4-12 last season and could get burned before moving to Las Vegas in 2020, this exchange becomes more attractive to Big Blue. The Giants could end up with two picks in the top five in 2020, which is exactly how the Browns could finally launch their endless rebuilding.
Oakland would be moving up to grab his own quarterback of the future or a second defensive piece of his team. Does the defense with the league's worst score in 2018 urgently need help from pbades, so imagine if the Raiders can go out with Quinnen Williams and Rashan Gary before using their third-round first-aid pick in high school? This would leave them without the option of recruiting a young quarterback in the first round of next year, but, once again, I am not sure that this is the preference that Gruden has expressed in previous years.
The jaguars get: 1-10, 3-71
The Broncos get: 1-7, 5-148
The Lions have been popularly badociated with the tight end of Iowa, T.J. Hockenson, who is comparing Rob Gronkowski. It's always going to be aggressive to compare a player who has not played a single NFL snap with possibly the best player in his position in NFL history, but Hockenson has great potential as a blocker and catcher. It would not be surprising to see him in the top 10, especially if you consider that the mental confidence of the Lions spent his formative years with Gronk in New England.
To get ahead of the Lions, who choose eighth, the Broncos have to make a small move from No. 10 to No. 7. Denver re-signed Jeff Heuerman with a two-year contract, but can not depend on Jake Butt Receiving a wing closed after years of injuries. There is a chance that Hockenson will fall to the Broncos with the tenth pick, but they should be willing to go down later in the draft to make sure they get their man. The Jags, who are probably looking at a right tackle to replace Jermey Parnell, should be able to make three selections to Jonah Williams or Jawaan Taylor from now on.
The lions get: 1-19, 2-51, 4-121
The titans get: 1-8
Bob Quinn made 10 exchanges with draft picks during his time as general manager of the Lions, and six of them went with their former employers in New England. Last year, he changed to catch Kerryon Johnson and then sent his third-round pick of 2019 to select Da & # 39; Shawn Hand with a fourth-round pick as part of a pair of exchanges with the Pats. Quinn got an additional third round of the Eagles as part of the Golden Tate trade, but this is a Lions team that needs to add depth, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
T.J. of Iowa Hockenson is considered one of the most complete TE teams in the draft and is often compared to Rob Gronkowski in terms of his style of play.
It is difficult to make an exchange of Patriots work, theoretically they could send four selections to the Lions to go from No. 32 to Hockenson, but opt for another satellite of Patriots in Tennessee. The Titans may well be interested in T.J. Hockenson as long-term replacement for Delanie Walker along with Jonnu Smith. They could climb to catch someone like Montez Sweat as the book runner for the second of 2018 Harold Landry on the edge. They could even, theoretically, promote a field marshal if GM Jon Robinson & Co. is not committed to Marcus Mariota, although if that is the case, they have their cards very close to the vest.
The bills get: 1-17, 2-37
The giants get: 1-9, 4-112, 5-147
Reports have suggested that the Giants do not believe Dwayne Haskins "fits" their list, which could mean almost anything, since the teams project their intentions at this time of year. There is a reasonable chance that the Giants are telling the truth, of course, but they may also be trying to keep Haskins's value low in order to catch him without having to use the No. 6 election.
This is his chance to take a key defensive piece and his quarterback of the future, since general manager Dave Gettleman can use the sixth choice of a defensive lineman before switching from No. 17 to a quarterback like Haskins or Drew. Lock. . The exchange would allow the Giants to defeat the Bengals (11th) and the Dolphins (13th) to recruit a field marshal.
The Broncos get: 1-13, 3-78
The dolphins get: 1-10, 6-182
The Dolphins are being rebuilt in private, even if they are not willing to commit completely to an idea of reconstruction in their public comments. After exchanging Ryan Tannehill, they are committed to Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starter in 2019, although it seems likely that they will select a quarterback in the first round, either in the 2019 or 2020 drafts.
Miami could wait until next season for what could be a superior quarterback clbad, but with a group of owners that would not really be characterized as patient, they could move up in this draft and choose Dwayne Haskins or Drew Lock if they are still on the board at No. 10. The Dolphins would be moving to try to beat the Bengals, given the chances that Cincinnati could choose a starting quarterback to replace Andy Dalton at No. 11.
The Bengals get: WR Robby Anderson, ILB Darron Lee, 1-3
The jets get: WR A.J. Green, 1-11, 4-110
I would like to believe that the Bengals will finally reach an agreement with their star receiver when Green enters the final year of the four-year, $ 60 million extension he signed in September 2015. After Odell Beckham Jr. and Antonio Brown They exchanged for this However, out of season, it seems naive to discard something. If the Bengals do not believe that they are a Super Bowl team with their current core, and it is difficult to argue that they are, this would be an opportunity to reformulate their list with a single change.
This exchange only makes sense if Kyler Murray is still on the board at No. 3, which would make the Bengals stay with their future quarterback to develop under new Bengals coach Zac Taylor. The loss of Green would obviously cost Murray his possible main receiver, but the Bengals would still have a broad, young core with a production history and future rise in Anderson and Tyler Boyd, both aged 25 or younger. They would also get an inside linebacker in Lee, a former first-round pick who does not have a place in the Jets starting lineup after hiring C.J. Mosley, but she showed promise last season.
The Jets, meanwhile, would suddenly have a No. 1 outout for Sam Darnold without having to give away his first-round selection. They would miss the opportunity to add a pbader with the third choice, but there could still be options in advance such as Rashan Gary or Ed Oliver at No. 11. The Jets also have the cap space to give Green a new deal. . This contract would value the difference between Green and the two players of the Jets as equivalent to the selection number 19 in a typical draft; Much more than the Steelers got for Brown, who is the same age as Green (30), but for a player without the off-field problems that Brown exhibited during the final in Pittsburgh.
The packers get: 1-15, 3-96, first round selection 2020
Washington gets: 1-12, 1-30, 5-150
Here is a creative way for the Packers to try to create a valuable selection of the selection they got from the Saints last year. Divide the exchange into two parts, and the Packers will move down three places from No. 12 to No. 15, with Washington exchanging the third round compensatory selection that Kirk Cousins received for the fifth round selection of Green Bay in return. In Jimmy Johnson's box, that's a slight advantage for Washington, since Jay Gruden's team delivered 1,166 points of draft capital and earned 1,231 points in return.
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The big chance for the Packers would be to trade the 30th pick in this year's draft for Washington's first round pick for 2020. Obviously, there's not much chance that Washington will get to the NFC Championship Game, so the selection will be higher in the draft than the 30th. Washington is much more likely to end up below .500, which would push this team to the top half of the first round. It also gives the Packers a promising player in a rookie contract that starts in 2020, and that's particularly valuable given that the contracts of his free agent clbad soar next season. Za Darius Smith, Preston Smith and Adrian Amos have a combined cap of $ 19.2 million in 2019, reaching $ 40.2 million in 2020.
Washington could make this deal for several reasons. If a field marshal he loves is on the board at No. 12, he could use this change to get ahead of the Dolphins. It also gives Washington a first-round extra to help raise a quarterback; Washington could package three of the 46 main selections in this draft as part of an agreement, which would be enough in the Johnson table to return the general election number 3.
The dolphins get: 1-2
The 49ers get: 1-13, first round selection 2020
NFL teams occasionally agree to conditional exchanges, which depend on whether a player is available at a particular location. Last year, for example, the Broncos and the Bills agreed to a tentative exchange of selections, and the Broncos reserve the right to retain their choice if their player was still on the board. When Bradley Chubb fell to fifth place, the Bills had no agreement.
Here, the Dolphins would be making a conditional exchange if the Cardinals decided to pbad Kyler Murray with the main team, probably to recruit Nick Bosa. The 49ers and the Jets have no need for Murray, but the Dolphins would want to get ahead of the Raiders at No. 4 to catch their quarterback of the future. The Jets are likely to want to add one of the leading drivers in No. 3 after missing Anthony Barr this offseason, and they will not be willing to help a divisional opponent get their quarterback of the future.
That leaves the 49ers, who could definitely consider recruiting Allen into No. 2, but they do not have the same kind of need on the edge after switching to Dee Ford this offseason. Moving down would give the Niners a future first-round pick from a team that could be among the worst football teams next season, which should be attractive to general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan. They might covet Bosa, but if he leaves the board at No. 2, the Dolphins could have a deal.
The hawks get: 1-8, 3-88
The lions get: 1-14, 2-45
The defense of the needs of the Falcons, with a particular focus on the corridor of edges, aligns well with the strengths of this draft. They have to be a little uneasy about where they sit at number 14, given that the best defensive ends (Nick Bosa, Josh Allen, Montez Sweat, Gary Rashan and even Brian Burns) could be off the board.
They probably will not be an all-in for Bosa and Allen the way I suggested they did with the change in third place, but it's certainly plausible that they can move up and chase someone like Sweat if he's on the board at No. 8. They would make this move to get ahead of the Bills at No. 9. It's also a perfect combination on the Jimmy Johnson table.
Washington gets: QB Josh Rosen, 2-33
The cardinals get: QB Case Keenum, 1-15
The simplest trade in this drill! The most logical landing point for Rosen is Washington, given that Jay Gruden's team does not have a future quarterback behind Alex Smith, who may never play again. Arizona wants to go with a first-round pick for their second-year pbad, but I do not think they have a great chance of getting a straight one unless it's the 32nd pick of the Patriots.
Louis Riddick is confident that Josh Rosen will be a professional despite the exchange rumors and says that many teams will be interested if he is in the block.
The Cardinals also get veteran support for Kyler Murray in Keenum, who once played under Kingsbury in Houston. This agreement values the difference between Rosen and Keenum as equivalent to the 43rd pick in a typical draft.
The panthers get: 1-7, 6-178
The jaguars get: 1-16, 2-47, 3-100
The Panthers have enough talent of initial caliber on their list to pbad the first round of this draft focusing on their future. They probably want to come out with a defensive end to add to their rotation to play behind Mario Addison and Bruce Irvin. The general manager, Marty Hurney, could try to find a threat on the field to replace Torrey Smith and complement Curtis Samuel, who is very injured, behind DJ Moore, although I doubt he will use his first-round selection in a wide receiver. in consecutive seasons.
Another way forward would be to move forward and select the tight end T.J. Hockenson replaced Greg Olsen, 34, who has missed 16 games in the past two seasons and could be close to joining a television network. Ian Thomas made a promise in December while replacing an injured Olsen, but there is nothing to stop the Panthers from using a large dose of two-tight sets. Carolina can use her second-round pick and the compensatory selection she caught for losing Andrew Norwell to move up the Iowa tight end.
The giants get: 1-30, 2-44
The packers get: 1-17, 3-95
The Giants picked up Browns 17 and 95 in the Odell Beckham Jr. trade, and although they might want to use those selections to make a dramatic selection using one at a quarterback, they have the best chance to add talent as part of That exchange is to trade down. This move would give the Giants four of the 45 best picks in this draft, which will allow them to tackle right tackle and at the same time improve a stripped defense.
Meanwhile, the Packers could use the first-round pick they got from the Saints as part of the Marcus Davenport trades as a weapon to advance for a second key piece of talent. It seems likely that they want to add at least one weapon to Aaron Rodgers, and while it may not be a good option for anyone other than T.J. Hockenson at No. 12, they could use that selection in an indoor disruptor such as Christian Wilkins while rising to No. 17 for Noah Fant, Hockenson's teammate in Iowa. A fan like D.K. Metcalf or Marquise Brown could also be at stake here.
The Vikings get: 1-29, 2-63
The bosses get: 1-18, 6-190
Después de volver a firmar a Anthony Barr y darle a Adam Thielen un aumento muy merecido como parte de su extensión de contrato, el gerente general Rick Spielman y los Vikings saben que necesitan concretar sus selecciones de draft para encontrar clientes habituales en acuerdos de bajo costo. Naturalmente, Minnesota buscará abordar su línea ofensiva una vez más en el draft, pero podría estar más interesado en los guardias si planea mantener a Riley Reiff en el tackle. Los Vikings podrían ser mejores si bajan y obtienen una selección adicional de segunda ronda.
Mientras tanto, los Jefes tienen que ser agresivos en ir tras la ayuda de punta después de convertir a Dee Ford y Justin Houston en Alex Okafor y Emmanuel Ogbah esta temporada baja. Operar hasta la mitad de la primera ronda podría darles la oportunidad de agregar a alguien como Brian Burns a su rotación en el ala defensiva. Los Jefes también podrían usar este canje, que incluye al Kansas City de segunda categoría adquirido de los Rams en el trato con Marcus Peters, para intercambiar por la elección de la clase del esquinero.
Los titanes consiguen: 1-32, 2-64
Los patriotas consiguen: 1-19
Los Patriots no suelen comerciar, pero podría tener sentido en esta situación. New England tiene siete selecciones en las primeras cuatro rondas, por lo que es extremadamente probable que Bill Belichick & Co. pueda consolidar algunas de esas selecciones o cambiar por futuras selecciones en 2020.
Teniendo en cuenta el agujero de los Pats en el ala cerrada, tendría sentido para ellos considerar ascender por delante de los Steelers en el número 20 para agarrar un arma para Tom Brady. Este podría ser un lugar de aterrizaje para Noah Fant. Mientras tanto, después de hacer solo cuatro selecciones el año pasado, los Titans deberían considerar acumular selecciones adicionales en este draft, incluso si eso significa esperar en la redacción de un corredor de bordes hasta el final de la primera ronda.
Steelers obtienen: 1-13
Los delfines consiguen: 1-20, 3-66
Football Outsiders projects the best prospects in key positions:
Los Steelers no cambian a menudo, pero no sería sin precedentes: una vez repartieron del No. 27 al No. 14 para agarrar a Troy Polamalu, y eso resultó bien. ¿Podrían hacer un intercambio similar si el ala cerrada T.J. Hockenson sigue en el tablero? No sé si todavía estará en el número 13, pero Pittsburgh podría avanzar para atacar a un tackle ofensivo como Jonah Williams, dado que intercambió a Marcus Gilbert y actualmente tiene a Matt Feiler apuntado como el tackle derecho titular.
Con el entrenador de la línea ofensiva Mike Munchak partiendo para Denver esta temporada baja, los Steelers podrían querer una opción de mayor potencial en el tackle derecho que el Feiler no reclutado.
Seahawks obtener: 1-26, 3-89
Los potros consiguen: 1-21, 6-159
Por mucho que a los Seahawks les guste quedarse y elegir el mejor corredor disponible en su tabla, ya están perdiendo sus selecciones de segunda, badta y séptima ronda en este draft luego de intercambiar por Duane Brown, Brett Hundley y Shalom Luani. Necesitan agregar proyecto de capital. Cambiar a un par de opciones en la primera ronda y obtener una selección en la tercera ronda tendría sentido.
Puede parecer que los Colts serían un equipo poco probable para intercambiar, pero Indy subió tres puestos en 2018 para tomar a Tyquan Lewis al final de la segunda ronda, por lo que el gerente general Chris Ballard aparentemente se siente cómodo haciendo un pequeño avance si el precio está bien. Estos serían cinco puestos en la primera ronda, por lo que el costo sería proporcionalmente más alto, pero permitiría a Indy adelantarse a equipos como los Ravens y los Raiders para capturar talento para su línea defensiva.
Los cuervos consiguen: 1-31, selección de segunda ronda 2020
Los carneros consiguen: 1-22, 4-123
El nuevo gerente general Eric DeCosta ha perdido una selección de segunda ronda después de enviarlo a los Eagles como parte del canje de Lamar Jackson el año pasado, por lo que si bien tiene dos selecciones en cada una de las rondas tercera y cuarta, no sería una sorpresa. para verlo comerciar hacia abajo para tratar de recuperar algo de capital inicial. Dado que el diputado de mucho tiempo de Ozzie Newsome no irá a ningún lado pronto, no debería preocuparse mucho si esa capital no vuelve hasta 2020.
Cualquier equipo interesado en linieros ofensivos buscará adelantarse a los Texans en el No. 23, y después de perder a Rodger Saffold en la agencia libre y de cortar a John Sullivan, los Rams podrían estar en el mercado para un liniero de interiores como Erik McCoy. . Los Ravens podrían atacar a McCoy (Kiper llevó a McCoy a Baltimore aquí en su último simulacro de draft), pero deberían estar contentos de bajar nueve puestos y obtener una segunda ronda para 2020.
Los texanos obtienen: 1-14
Falcons get: 1-23, 2-55
The Texans learned just how dangerous it can be to trade up when they shipped off a future first-round pick for Deshaun Watson and ended up missing out on the fourth overall selection last year. They're happy with Watson, of course, and general manager Brian Gaine wasn't around for that trade, but you would understand why the franchise might be wary to make a huge leap up, even if they're attempting to target a position of need.
With an extra second-round pick from the Duane Brown trade, though, the Texans should consider moving up to grab some desperately-required help along the offensive line. Washington has been bringing linemen in for visits, and the Texans might need to get ahead of the 15th spot if they want to draft someone such as Erik McCoy or Jonah Williams. Sometimes, it's just that simple.
Raiders get: DE Jadeveon Clowney
Texans get: 1-24, 5-140
What's more complicated for the Texans, though, is coming to terms on an extension with Clowney. I wrote back in February about how difficult it would be to find common ground with the edge rusher on an extension, and after seeing players such as Za'Darius Smith top $17 million per year on deals this offseason, things aren't getting any easier for the Texans. They can use the franchise tag on Clowney a second time in 2020 and pay the former first overall pick $19.1 million, but he would top a $20 million average salary in free agency, and his camp knows it.
If the Texans aren't willing to give him a DeMarcus Lawrence-type contract, this would be the right time to make a trade. Coming away with a first-round pick in a draft deep with edge-rushing talent is far more appealing than waiting a year and ending up with a compensatory third-round pick.
One team that would probably be comfortable using a first-round pick to pay Clowney north of $20 million per year would be the Raiders, who would be using the pick they received from the Bears in the Khalil Mack trade to go after an edge-rusher with proven success and significant upside. Trading Mack for two first-round picks doesn't sound quite as bad as trading Mack for Clowney and a first-round pick, and while I'm not sure that's a great way to make football decisions, I would also be pretending to think that teams don't think that way internally.
Eagles get: CB Trae Waynes, 2-50, 6-190
Vikings get: 1-25
The Eagles gave cornerback Ronald Darby a one-year, $6.5 million deal this offseason to come back, but Howie Roseman is one of the most creative and aggressive general managers in the league when it comes to acquiring talent at positions of need. The Eagles have possible options at the position with the likes of Jalen Mills and Sidney Jones, but they need as much help at corner as possible.
In this deal, he goes after Waynes, who is on what amounts to a one-year deal for $9.1 million on a Vikings team already deep at cornerback and unlikely to retain him next year in free agency. Minnesota can move up and use yet another first-round pick at the position to supplement Xavier Rhodes and Mike Hughes, who would be promoted to the starting lineup with Waynes' departure. The Eagles would move down 25 spots in the draft, but they would likely come away with a compensatory pick for Waynes in free agency next season.
Colts get: 2-36, 3-67
49ers get: 1-26, 5-164
Kiper, McShay and Sprow dissect the draft.
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The Colts might have rode a blistering-hot second half into the postseason, but it's also fair to say that their rebuild is still in progress. Indy managed to coax career seasons out of veterans such as Margus Hunt, Denico Autry, Pierre Desir and Clayton Geathers on defense last season, and though they're all returning in 2019, the best path for the Colts to build a sustainably excellent defense is still going to be through drafting and developing young talent.
General manager Chris Ballard used three of his four second-round picks on defenders last year and found a superstar with the 36th pick in Darius Leonard. This trade gets him another pair of quality picks at the top of the second and third rounds, including that very same 36th pick again in a swap with the 49ers. San Francisco's rebuild is also in progress, but given how GM John Lynch has fallen in love with specific players over his tenure as general manager, this could be a spot for the 49ers to trade up and grab a cornerback like Greedy Williams or Rock Ya-Sin.
Raiders get: 2-62, 2020 first-round pick
Saints get: 1-27, 4-106
Everything the Saints have done over the past few months suggests they're all-in for the 2019 season. Most of what the Raiders have done over the past year suggests they're trying to build a competitive team for their move to Las Vegas in 2020. This deal better aligns both those windows.
The Saints don't have a 2019 first-rounder after trading up for Marcus Davenport last year, but they would much rather be without a first-round pick in 2020 as opposed to 2019 if it means they have a better shot of winning a Super Bowl this season. The Raiders are ambading tons of draft capital under Jon Gruden, but there's no reason they should be desperate to make one of those picks in 2019 as opposed to 2020, especially given that the pick they would be sending in this deal is the sixth-worst selection of the first round. The Saints are likely to send them a bottom-six pick in next year's draft, too, but Oakland will move up 44 picks and take home a second-round pick this April for being patient. If the Saints disappoint in 2019, this could end up being a huge win for Gruden.
Chargers get: QB Josh Rosen, 2-33, 4-103
Cardinals get: 1-28, 2-60
Chargers general manager Tom Telesco hasn't really exhibited much interest in trading draft picks. Since trading up to grab Melvin Gordon in 2015, the only time Telesco has traded away a draft pick was when he sent a seventh-round pick to the Bills for Cardale Jones in 2018. There's a good chance he'll hold onto his picks again this year.
With that being said, the Chargers have a quarterback entering the final year of his deal who turns 38 in December, and while Philip Rivers continues to play at a high level, there's no guarantee that the 15-year veteran wants to play deep into another contract extension. They wouldn't need Rosen for 2019 or maybe even for 2020, but trading for him now would give the Chargers peace of mind that they'll have a starter after Rivers packs it in.
At this price, L.A. would value Rosen as worth the 61st pick in a typical draft, which seems like the low end for a guy who was the 10th overall pick in 2018. With Tyrod Taylor's contract nonguaranteed in 2020, trading for Rosen is a move the Chargers would have to seriously consider.
Chiefs get: DE Carl Lawson, 2-42, 4-110
Bengals get: 1-29, 6-201
A Bengals trade up is about as rare as it gets, but with the Packers and Patriots lurking as teams that could at least consider using a first-round pick on a quarterback like Daniel Jones, any team interested in nabbing a quarterback is going to have to talk to the Chiefs. If the Bengals don't draft a pbader with their first-round pick, moving into the bottom of the first round would be a plausible alternative.
Kansas City general manager Brett Veach already has two late second-round picks, but as the Chiefs build their roster around a core of stars who are about to get very expensive, they're going to need talented players on rookie deals. Here, they get a pair of valuable picks and a pbad-rusher with upside in Lawson, who had 8.5 sacks and 21 hits as a rookie before tearing his ACL last season. With two years left on his rookie deal, any sort of return to that rookie form would make Lawson extremely valuable for a Chiefs team desperately seeking edge-rushing help.
Packers get: 2-38, 2020 second-round pick
Jaguars get: 1-30, 4-118
The Packers have a lot of flexibility with the 30th pick after spending so much in free agency. They could opt for depth at pbad-rusher, offensive line help, or go after a receiver, but their best bet might be to ambad more draft capital. At No. 30, they should have teams calling them to try to get ahead of the Rams and Patriots, who are most likely to be looking for offensive linemen and receivers, respectively.
Tom Coughlin's Jags would be looking toward the latter. Even after signing Geoff Swaim to a two-year deal this offseason, Jacksonville badly needs a solution at tight end. This would be a move to trade up for Irv Smith Jr. ahead of the Patriots, but it would be costly: if Nick Foles doesn't turn things around for the Jags, this trade could easily be the 30th pick for two picks in the 33-40 range.
Rams get: 1-22, 2020 fourth-round pick
Ravens get: 1-31, 3-94, 2020 second-round pick
It's tough for the Rams to move up, given that they're down a second-round pick from the Marcus Peters trade and one of their two compensatory third-round picks after dealing for Dante Fowler Jr.
Jeffery Simmons is a defensive tackle out of Mississippi State who is a projected first-round pick in the draft, but tore his ACL in February.
Unless they want to package both of their third-rounders to move up, the Rams will probably have to put their 2020 second-round pick into play. By including that pick and one of the third-rounders, the Rams probably have enough to approach the edges of the lottery. They could be trading up for an interior linemen to replace Rodger Saffold, but if they plan on keeping Michael Brockers at defensive end, it's fair to wonder if the Rams might target a defensive tackle such as Jeffery Simmons if the Mississippi State product falls to No. 22.
Giants get: QB Josh Rosen (from Cardinals), 4-134 (from Patriots)
Patriots get: TE Evan Engram, 2-37 (from Giants), DE Robert Nkemdiche (from Cardinals)
Cardinals get: 1-32 (from Patriots)
The Patriots might very well make their own move for Rosen, but let's finish up this mock draft by everyone getting a bit of what they want. The Cardinals want a first-round pick for the quarterback they chose with the 10th overall selection; they'll have to settle for the last pick in the round, but it's a fair return given that Rosen showed little behind a porous offensive line last season. Arizona will likely decline Nkemdiche's fifth-year option for 2020, with the disappointing former first-round pick coming off a torn ACL. He's not guaranteed to make the Arizona roster if he stays in the desert.
In getting Rosen, the Giants come away with a viable successor for Eli Manning without having to use the sixth overall pick on a quarterback. Giants GM Dave Gettleman instead leverages his second-round pick and Engram, another one of the Jerry Reese draftees who have little utility in a run-first attack, to get a possible franchise quarterback. They get a fourth-rounder back from the Pats to help cushion the blow.
The Patriots move down five spots from their first-round pick and send a fourth-rounder to the Giants to pick up two young players with upside. Engram isn't a direct replacement for Rob Gronkowski — he's more like Aaron Hernandez on the field — but the Ole Miss product is a valuable receiver at a position of need for the Pats and came out of school with an excellent three-cone drill mark, which Belichick has typically valued in his receivers. Nkemdiche is a flyer along the defensive line with a cap hold of just $2.7 million for 2019.