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AIR updates Hurricane Maria loss calculation

The catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide has updated its loss estimates for Hurricane Maria, reporting that insured losses in the Caribbean will range between $ 27 billion and $ 48 billion.

Maria's losses in Puerto Rico are estimated at $ 25 billion $ 43 billion, according to the company, a division of Verisk.

In September, AIR estimated that the losses insured by the industry for Hurricane Maria in the Caribbean would be between $ 40 billion and $ 85 billion.

AIR said that its revised estimate came after re-examining Hurricane Maria weather, analyzing the results of the AIR survey conducted in Puerto Rico at the end of October and reviewing the most recent information on insurance practices and policies in Puerto Rico. .

The reduction in the high end of the AIR loss estimates is mainly based on the revision of María's intensity over Puerto Rico. AIR said a new examination of the storm's parameters revealed lower wind speeds than previously estimated, particularly in San Juan and the surrounding area, as well as a narrower overall wind footprint.

AIR said that a significant portion of the losses modeled for Puerto Rico are generated by the industrial business line, which comprises a wide variety of industries and physical assets. However, the industrial line also represents a large part of the remaining uncertainty in the loss estimates, particularly with regard to business interruption losses.

Claims will continue to develop over the next six to eight months, largely as a result of continued losses due to business interruption. Adding to the uncertainty (and the estimated range of losses) is to what extent the increase in demand – which is the increase in the cost of labor and materials that is often observed after major catastrophes – will play a role in the final insurance payments, according to the model company.

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