Public health officials are requesting Americans to stay home this year for thanksgiving. And, despite busy airports this past weekend, most people plan to follow their advice, according to a vast survey asking Americans about their vacation plans.
The map shows geographic variation in those plans, and there are partial partitions. But even among Republicans, two-thirds are going for a big traditional thanksgiving.
Our data comes from interviews conducted by global data and survey firm Dinata at the request of The New York Times. The firm asked a question about Thanksgiving plans, receiving more than 150,000 survey responses from November 13–23, enough data to provide a more detailed estimate than at the state level.
Nationwide, the survey found that only 27 percent of Americans plan to dine with people outside their homes. The number is roughly in line with the results of recent small surveys, including researchers from YouGov, the Kovid States Project, and Ohio State University, who plan to celebrate in less than one-third of all Americans.
It also aligns with the results of a separate informal Times survey of epidemiologists. Of the 635 public health experts, about 21 percent planned to celebrate Thanksgiving with people outside their homes. The same question words were used – two surveys of ordinary Americans and epidemiologists.
A large survey of Americans and epidemiologists gave similar answers: Most said they would not celebrate thanksgiving with people outside their homes.
Share of people having a thanksgiving dinner with people outside their home
But as the map shows, there is substantial regional variation in Thanksgiving plans, with people in some parts of the country more likely to congregate with others. For example, in parts of Vermont, about 14 percent of families would celebrate with people outside their homes. More than half of residents in parts of Missouri plan.
Public health officials are concerned about the thanksgiving ceremony as coronovirus cases have reached record highs in many areas of the country. Traditional holiday celebrations, with prolonged meals and with some being commonly involved in travel, may contribute to more cases of illness, which are mainly spread through droplets and aerosols that roam in unilateral indoor locations. Can. Last week, an array of federal and state health officials urged Americans to abandon such plans and stay home for leave.
The party’s identity makes clear the differences in Thanksgiving plans.
Political Party’s share of people having Thanksgiving dinner with people outside their home
As in a similar survey of wearing masks since summer, participation clarifies regional variation in Thanksgiving plans. Most of all, survey respondents identified as members of the Libertarian, Green or Republican parties more likely to plan a multi-household thanks than those unaffiliated with the Democrats or political party.
The states that President Trump won in this month’s election were generally more likely to have rates of multi-domestic thanks than those won by Joe Biden.
Americans who were won by President Trump in 2020 are, on average, more likely to say they planned to thank people outside their homes.
Share of people eating thanksgiving dinner with people outside their home by the state
Won by biden
Won by trump
Washington’s Governor Jay Inslee, the state with the lowest share of mixed-household Thanksgiving employed in the survey, said he and other officials worked hard throughout the epidemic for scientists, not politicians who delivered the public health message. But he and his wife, Trudy Inslee, gave a “fireside chat” last week about Thanksgiving, the year they will highlight family traditions. Coronavirus cases are increasing in Washington, and the state has imposed new restrictions on commerce, but the number of cases is lower than in many other parts of the country. Mr. Inslee said that he was pleased to see that people in his state were escaping with great thanks.
“We can now crow. We are now the nation’s most grateful state,” he said. “We are grateful to our loved ones that we want to keep alive for the next thanksgiving.”
Early in the epidemic, there was a minimally biased division on public health advice, said Samara Kaler, an associate professor of political science at the University of Arizona. But she noted that the message from Republican and Democratic leaders has been shown by the division in support of public health measures and the wearing of self-worn masks. Thanksgiving plans fit that broader pattern.
“There is nothing inherent about Republicans that makes them less concerned or implicit about Democrats that terrorize them more,” she said. “But when you have an issue people don’t know a lot about, people will look to their leaders for cues fairly, and so we see a difference.”
His research has shown that partisan segmentation on coronovirus precautions is narrow in places that have been hit hardest by the virus.
There is some evidence that recent public health officials ‘strict warnings are affecting Americans’ vacation plans. Our survey started collecting responses on 13 November. After November 19, when officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urged people to stay indoors for a holiday and when the White House coronavirus virus force recommended avoiding indoor ceremonies, the number of Americans outside their home The plan to celebrate with fell from around 28 percent to 25 percent, though the figure has reversed somewhat.
Most of that shift was among Republicans, who presumably became more accustomed than Democrats to change advice from the White House. Democrats have said they are more cautious about coronovirus risks during the epidemic.
The CDC’s announcement on 19 November, urging Americans not to travel for Thanksgiving, could have a small effect.
By the date of the survey’s response, people share saying they will eat Thanksgiving dinner with people outside their home
There are reasons to doubt that more Americans will be merged on Thanks than these studies suggest. In general, survey people are often reluctant to behave which may be considered undesirable. And the epidemic has made the notion of a “household” more resilient for many families, who let neighbors, friends, or relatives into their “bubble” to expand their social relationships while limiting their kovid risk is. This week the airports were busier than at any time as the epidemic became a national emergency, although peak air travel on Sunday was still only half the usual number for a holiday.
The Ohio State University poll found that only 21 percent of adults said they would celebrate with people outside their home. But another question found that about 38 percent of people planned to celebrate in groups of more than 10.. The discrepancy is huge in terms of the number of large houses in the country.
One of the co-authors of that survey, Ian Gonsenhauser, said he worries that answers to the household question may be colored by some combination of embarrassment and flexible definition of homes. But he nevertheless said that it is noteworthy that most of the people in the survey appeared to have public health messages from the heart.
The Chief Quality and Patient Safety Officer of the Ohio State University Vexus Medical Center, Drs. “It is very easy to give the key to those who are not following the guidelines or who are currently opposing the guidelines or recommendations,” said Gonsenhauser. “Which is a much louder message than the message people are saying right now, it’s not a good idea right now, and I’m not having an in-person Thanksgiving.”