3 paths from New York Times / Siena College Poll


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In a normal year, this would be the go time for the political press. We would set the country ablaze, leaving candidates out of suitcases and hotel minibars, leaving candidates behind as they hopscotched through rallies in swing states.

I think everyone is now just drinking in their home offices.

But, hey, at least we still have the election! The New York Times is organizing a full season of them between now and Election Day, with the first batch coming from potential voters in four major battlegrounds: Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

In addition to showing a lasting edge for Joe Biden, the results give a sense of how some voters are processing some of the chaos of this unpredictable year – from the deadly coronavirus epidemic to racial justice protests.

Here are some of the biggest takeaways:

President Trump is taking his advantage on the economy, but Mr. Biden is winning over the virus response.

Even in the recession, Mr. Trump has maintained his lead on economic issues. In our poll, half of voters in Wisconsin and Minnesota said they believed the president would do a better job on the economy, compared to 45 percent who said the same about Mr. Biden. Some of that evaluation probably stems from Mr. Trump’s enduring image among conservative voters as a successful businessman and deal maker.

While Mr. Biden has not been able to overtake the president on economic issues, voters in those two important states see him as a firm hand to guide the country through the epidemic. Twenty-five percent said Mr. Biden would do a better job of dealing with the coronovirus crisis, while only 41 percent said that about Mr. Bump.

Most voters in all four states also agree with Mr. Biden’s position on the virus, saying the federal government’s priority should be to limit its spread, even if it hurts the economy.

Voters don’t buy Mr. Trump’s call for “law and order,” but believe some of his false attacks on Mr. Biden on policing.

For weeks, Mr. Trump has warned that Democrats would unleash a national wave of chaos, anarchy and plunder. While voting shows signs of voter concern about violence, Mr. Trump’s message does not appear to be engaging.

Asked whether the biggest problem in the country was “riots in American cities” or “racism in the criminal justice system”, half of voters said racism and 43 percent said riots. In Minnesota and Wisconsin – where George Floyd was killed and Jacob Blake was shot – 53 percent believe Mr. Trump has encouraged violence in America. More voters said they trusted Mr. Biden to better protests and race relations than the president.

But this does not mean that Mr. Biden and his team should win one. These most voters were divided over the question of which candidate relied more on “law and order” and handling violent crime.

And some of Mr. Trump’s attacks on Mr. Biden, while untrue, are working. Forty percent of those surveyed in two Midwestern states said that Mr. Biden defended the police – a situation Mr. Biden repeatedly said he did not hold. And 55 percent said Mr. Biden had not done enough to condemn the violent riots, despite his outspoken comments of lawlessness.

Mr. Trump’s prediction of suburban chaos is not working in the suburbs.

Mr. Trump has made no secret of his desire to support him to intimidate suburban voters, trying to ignite racist fears about affordable housing to warn Mr. Biden of destroying him.Suburban lifestyle dream. “

Suburbanites are not buying it: Across four states, Mr. Biden is far ahead of Mr. Trump among voters living in the suburbs. The majority of suburban voters in Wisconsin and Minnesota say they are not concerned about apartment buildings, concessional housing developments or the influx of residents with government housing vouchers living in their neighborhoods – all policies Mr. Trump has to stop Has campaigned.

Mr. Trump’s ability to woo suburban voters could determine the election. Republicans have lost the suburbs only three times since 1980 in 1996, 1996, and 2008. Democrats have won the presidency in each of those three years.

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Jerry Brown kept checking his weather app. The former California governor, who has long warned of the impending disaster of global warming, was at his farm north of Sacramento and could see that the nearby forest fire caused air quality in particular Was not good Or rather he can tell how bad it was No See.

“I have never seen such a vague view of the mountains 1,000 yards away from me,” Mr. Brown told me on the phone in Williams, California, on Sunday. “It is very vague. I look at oak trees. It is very difficult to see the mountains. So this is bad. Everyone is looking at their weather app here. “

Which he did. “I go to my weather app,” Mr. Brown said. “I go to Williams. I see unhealthy air. With a little more scrutiny, he realized to his amazement that the air where he lived as a symbol of the smog was bad in Los Angeles. (The wind in Los Angeles is as bad as it has been in decades, but because the fire is far away, it is not as bad as in most areas of the state.)

Mr. Brown spoke on the eve of President Trump’s California visit. Mr. Trump on Monday attributed poor forest management to the wildfires. But Mr. Brown said that Blaise was a member of Mr. Trump’s environmental campaigns were a reminder of the long-term costs of an aggressive campaign to repeal.

Mr. Trump said in our interview, “Trump is acting in ways that are detrimental to the people of America and the world based on their climate denial and their tireless campaign to undermine the most sensible climate action.” “He is also contributing to air pollution and worsening of people’s health.”

Would Mr. Brown have said that instead of Gavin Newsome if he was on a visit on Monday, he would have been face to face with Trump.

Probably not. “Do you tell him that now that you’re asking for billions of dollars – I think I’ll wait a few days,” Mr. Brown said.


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