2021 Golden Globes Predictions: Will ‘Borat’ Be the Big Winner?

When it comes to predicting the winners of the Golden Globes on Sunday night, you have to imagine a number of conflicting agendas. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which organizes the ceremony, likes to award its trophies to films that already have a lot of momentum at the Oscars, but the small size of the group, about 90 eccentric journalists who vote for the Globes, leaves all categories open to a crash winner.

This year, the pandemic deprived association members of the opportunity to rub shoulders with big names, a glamorous perk that can often sway their selections. The HFPA is also under fire after a series of recent articles exposed double-treatment practices and an island membership that does not include black voters, which may explain why none of last year’s black-led ensembles hailed as “Da 5 Bloods “and” One Night in Miami “made the Globes’ best drama lineup.

Will voters try to mitigate those controversies by choosing a diverse group of worthy winners, or will the traditional anarchy of the Globe prevail? I expect a bit of both. Here are my screenings for this year’s film races at the Golden Globes.

Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Butt”
Andra Day, “America vs. Billie Holiday”
Vanessa Kirby, “Woman’s Pieces”
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”

This race can be boiled down to McDormand and Mulligan, each fronting zeitgeisty films that were also nominated in the drama, director, and screenplay categories. Since Mulligan’s role as the vengeful and thoroughly contemporary Cassie is a huge change of pace for a star often seen in period pieces, I cast her to win in a squeak.

Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Butt”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
Gary Oldman, “Mank”
Tahar Rahim, “The Mauritanian”

Boseman’s status as the Oscar favorite is so smug that if the Globes took a different path, they would invite more scrutiny and controversy at a time when they hardly need it. That’s not to say the category lacks powerful alternatives: In any other year, Hopkins, Ahmed or Oldman could easily come to victory here. But not this time.

“The father”
“Promising young woman”
“The Chicago 7 Trial”

Despite all his strengths, “The Father” and “Mank” feel less urgent when faced with three Big Issue dramas. “Promising Young Woman” would be the provocative and pointy choice, but Globe voters tend to gravitate toward a movie with a high chance of winning the best picture Oscar, and by that metric, “Nomadland” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7 “I have the highest hopes. This could be either way, but I’m screening “Chicago 7,” written and directed by two-time Globe winner Aaron Sorkin.

Maria Bakalova, “Borat Post Movie”
Kate Hudson, “Music”
Michelle Pfeiffer, “French Departure”
Rosamund Pike, “I care a lot”
Anya Taylor-Joy, “Emma”

Bakalova gave one of the year’s standout performances as Borat’s daughter, and while she will be running as a supporting actress for the Academy Awards, the Globes comedy / musical categories offer her an excellent opportunity to launch herself into the main race and snatch a high-profile trophy. Out of a handful of hopeful Oscar contenders, she’s as good as gold.

Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
James Corden, “The Prom”
Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Hamilton”
Dev Patel, “The Personal Story of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, “Palm Springs”

Baron Cohen won this Golden Globe for the first “Borat”, and his only real competition here is dear Miranda. Still, “Hamilton” peaked five years ago, and the HFPA doesn’t like to feel like the last to arrive at a party. Expect more votes for Baron Cohen, whose acceptance speech could spice up a socially estranged night.

“Borat Post Movie”
“Palm Springs”
“The prom”

“Palm Springs” and “The Prom” are not significant threats on the Globe, and the nominations for “Music” provoked such ridicule that voters are likely to avoid further recognition for the Sia-led fiasco. That leaves “Hamilton” and “Borat” alone, and since the Disney + recording of “Hamilton” will not be Oscar-eligible, the HFPA should favor the joker in a Baron Cohen suit.

Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”
Olivia Colman, “The Father”
Jodie Foster, “The Mauritanian”
Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”
Helena Zengel, “News of the world”

Just two years ago, Close won Best Actress in a Drama for “The Wife,” while Colman won Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy for “The Favorite.” What happens when you put those two Globe winners face to face in this year’s supporting actress career? Potentially creates enough daylight for Seyfried to slide in, but I think Colman still has the upper hand against Close for a better-reviewed film that garnered Globe nominations across the board.

Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Chicago 7 Trial”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Jared Leto, “The Little Things”
Bill Murray, “On the Rocks”
Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami”

With Odom in the best song category and Baron Cohen most likely to win for “Borat,” will voters split the wealth here and choose someone else? Kaluuya’s magnetic performance as Black Panther frontman Fred Hampton has a lot of heat at the Oscars, but the Globes have gone crazy in this category before, or don’t you remember when “Nocturnal Animals” star Aaron Taylor-Johnson beat Mahershala Ali from “Moonlight”? That’s why I’m tempted to predict a win for Leto, who has found a bewildering attraction at the awards for “The Little Things” – it just wouldn’t feel like the Globes without a chaotic win at the top of the show.

Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”
David Fincher, “Mank”
Regina King, “One Night in Miami”
Aaron Sorkin, “The Chicago 7 Trial”
Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”

This category usually goes to the more technically complicated movie, which seems to favor Fincher because of the shiny, expensive “Mank.” But Zhao is considered one of the Oscar favorites and the HFPA has received much criticism for rarely recognizing women in this race. I think Zhao will become the first female director to succeed here in almost four decades, since Barbra Streisand won this Globe for “Yentl.”

Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”
Jack Fincher, “Mank”
Aaron Sorkin, “The Chicago 7 Trial”
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller, “The Father”
Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”

It’s the promising Fennell against veteran Sorkin in this category. If the HFPA decides that Zhao is its choice for best director, the script race offers a much more natural place to reward Sorkin, and I hope voters will seize the opportunity.

“Another round”
“La llorona”
“The life ahead”
“Both of us”

The “Minari” immigrant story couldn’t be more American, but an outdated HFPA rule moves it into the category of foreign films because its characters often speak Korean, and an even more pernicious rule decrees that these foreign films do not. are. eligible for a nomination for best drama. Knowing this, the Globes will likely reward “Minari” in an attempt to squash all the controversy, but the real victory would be to remove those rules entirely next time.

“The Croods: a new era”
“On the moon”

The much-admired “Wolfwalkers” have underdog potential, and the Globes often go for that: Last year, the much more modest “Missing Link” won out over monsters like “Toy Story 4” and “Frozen 2.” That said, I’m still projecting that Pixar’s “Soul” wins, as it showed enough strength with the HFPA to land another nomination. Speaking of which …

Alexandre Desplat, “The Midnight Sky”
Ludwig Goransson, “Tenet”
James Newton Howard, “News of the World”
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, “Mank”
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste, “Soul”

Reznor and Ross are double nominees here, and will likely repeat at the Oscars, but in the high-scoring category, you have to assume the music movie has the upper hand. Hope your work with Jon Batiste on “Soul” succeeds.

“Fight for You” (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
“Hear My Voice” (“The Chicago 7 Trial”)
“Io Sì” (“Life ahead”)
“Speak now” (“One night in Miami”)
“Tigress & Tweed” (“United States vs. Billie Holiday”)

Leslie Odom Jr. and Andra Day received two nominations for acting and writing songs in their films, but the Globes clearly preferred “One Night in Miami” (which also garnered a best director nomination) to the Billie Holiday biopic of Day, so “Speak Now,” which Odom wrote with Sam Ashworth, has a better chance of being heard here.

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