2019 Kentucky Derby Post Positions by numbers



The Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve is, rightly, known as the two most exciting minutes in the sport; once the Churchill Downs start gate opens, anything can (and often does) happen. For the 20-year-old Thoroughbreds, competing is one of the most important moments of their lives; Luck in racing can make or break your Derby career from the beginning. However, part of that luck comes into play days before: the luck of the draw of the position of the post.

The positions of the Kentucky Derby positions are randomly badigned on the Tuesday before the race, but their influence on the race seems far from arbitrary.

The Kentucky Derby has used a departure gate since 1930; Two of them actually. One holds 14 horses and the other, called the auxiliary door, joins the outside of the main gate and has six more horses. This allows up to 20 horses to run in the race, and where a horse is placed at the gate can have a substantial impact on the strategy and potentially on the outcome of the race.

The instinct might suggest that the interior poles are favorable, since running near the railroad is the shortest way around a race track. This could be true in races with fields of 10 horses or less, but in the Kentucky Derby there are 20 race horses that jump from the door and rush to the safe position before the field heads towards the first turn. This means that there are many bumps and shoves while the field is compressed inside the race track. And that means that the horses that are already inside will get the worst, which could discourage them or negatively affect their position.

Horses outdoors are usually subject to fewer hits, but if they fail to cross the track before the first turn, they are left open. In the Kentucky Derby, shifts represent more than 40 percent of the 1 ¼ mile race. Assuming that the width required for a racehorse and rider is 4 feet, for each path out of the railing, a horse runs more than 25 feet further. A six-way horse off the railing on both curves will run 150 feet farther than a horse on the railing, which will make his career much more exhausting. It is important to find a balance between enough inside to save the terrain and far enough outside so that a horse can maneuver easily to be out in the open when the real race begins: the homestretch.

So, what position position is ideal? Conventional wisdom says that somewhere in the middle of the door, the number 5-15, is the best. Some coaches, owners or riders prefer the exterior of the main door (position 14) or the interior of the auxiliary door (position 15) for the additional space they offer.

In recent years, however, there seems to be a tendency for external positions to be more successful, due in part to the overcrowded fields of the last two decades. The average field size in the history of the Derby is 13.2 horses, but the average size of the fields since the turn of the century is 19.1, with no field smaller than 16. Nine of the 19 winners since 2000 separated from door 13 or more. Of the 70 races that used a door before 2000, only 10 winners left door 13 or higher. Some of the recent winners were favorites (Nyquist, American Pharoah, Big Brown, etc.) that could have won from an inner door anyway, but some were not.

Focusing on the auxiliary door, posts 15-20, make the trend even more evident. In Kentucky Derby disputed in 1999 and earlier, 38 used the auxiliary door and four Derby winners separated from there. Since 2000, the 19 used the auxiliary door and seven of the 19 winners were separated from the 15th or higher. The success rate for horses in the auxiliary gate at that time is 7-for-96, or 7.3 percent. The horses at the main gate since 2000 have gone 12 by 266 for a success rate of 4.5 percent.

Confirmation of this tendency towards external publications occurs when badyzing the success (or lack of it) of internal publications. No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby since gate 1 since Ferdinand in 1986. The only horse that has won since 1, 2 or 3 since then is Real Quiet, the winner of the 1998 Derby that came just to the nose of Win the Triple Crown. Before 1987, 19 of the 58 horses that came out of those gates won, which gave the gates a winning rate of 10.9 percent. Since 1987, the winning rate for posts 1, 2 or 3 is only 1.08 percent (1 of 93).

Other interesting statistics from the post position include a winning rate of 11.2 percent for Gate 5, which was the position of the winner of 2017 Always Dreaming and the winner of 2014 California Chrome, and a winning rate of 0 for hundred for the door 17. No horse has ever won, and the last time door 17 produced a horse that finished in the top five was 2005. The first three? 1988, when Forty Niner was second. Gate 14 has only two winners and has not won since 1961. At the winning end of the spectrum, Gate 10 produces the winners of the Derby by 11 percent, and the horses end in money (the first three) hence a remarkable 29.3 percent of the time.

Get the statistics in all positions of the publication below. This year's contenders will be added after the draw for the publication position on Tuesday.

Position of the position

2019 Contender

The most recent winner

Starts

Win

Win percentage

Finished in the money

ITM Percentage

Result of last year

one

TBD

Fernando (1986)

89

8

9.0%

18

20.2%

Firenze Fire, 11th place

two

TBD

Affirmed (1978)

89

7

7.9%

25

28.1%

Free Drop Billy, 16th place

3

TBD

Real Quiet (1998)

89

5

5.6%

19

21.3%

Promises fulfilled, 15th place

4

TBD

Super Saver (2010)

89

5

5.6%

fifteen

16.9%

Flameaway, 13th place

5

TBD

Always dreaming (2017)

89

10

11.2%

22

24.7%

Audible, 3rd place

6

TBD

Sea Hero (1993)

89

two

2.2%

13

14.6%

Good magic, 2nd place

7

TBD

Justify (2018)

88

7

8.0%

18

20.5%

Justify, 1st place

8

TBD

Mine that Bird (2009)

88

8

9.1%

17

19.3%

Solitary sailor, 8th place

9

TBD

Riva Ridge (1972)

85

4

4.7%

17

20.0%

Hofburg, seventh place

10

TBD

Giacomo (2005)

82

9

11.0%

24

29.3%

My Boy Jack, 5th place

eleven

TBD

Winning colors (1988)

78

two

2.6%

eleven

14.1%

Bolt d & # 39; Gold, 12th place

12

TBD

Canonero II (1971)

74

3

4.1%

9

12.2%

Attracted, 14th place

13

TBD

Nyquist (2016)

72

5

6.9%

19

26.4%

Bravazo, 6th place

14

TBD

Carry Back (1961)

64

two

3.1%

12

18.8%

Mendelssohn, 20th place

fifteen

TBD

American Pharoah (2015)

57

5

8.8%

8

14.0%

Respect instilled, 4th place

sixteen

TBD

Animal Kingdom (2011)

47

4

8.5%

10

21.3%

Magnum Moon, 19th place

17

TBD

N / A

40

0

0.0%

3

7.5%

Solomini, 10th place

18

TBD

Cat of the sun (1982)

32

one

3.1%

5

15.6%

Rosso wine, 9th place.

19

TBD

I will have another (2012)

27

one

3.7%

two

7.4%

Noble Indy, 17th place

twenty

TBD

Big Brown (2008)

17

one

5.9%

two

11.8%

Fighter, 18th place


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