Our NFL Insiders predict Week 10’s largest upsets, fantasy flops and sleepers. Plus: Can the Rams actually high the Seahawks within the NFC West? Which coach must be most involved about holding his job? And what was probably the most memorable play of the primary half?
What’s your high upset decide for Week 10?
Matt Bowen, NFL author: Chargers over Jaguars. I just like the Chargers coming off their bye. Yes, that Jags secondary is the highest unit within the league and the go rush can create chaos for Philip Rivers when the pocket begins to fold up. But with a high-volume recreation from Melvin Gordon, environment friendly play within the purple zone and opportunistic protection, the Chargers can steal one right here on the cross-country journey.
Dan Graziano, NFL author: Bills over Saints. I like Buffalo’s possibilities for a bounce-back at house with a number of additional days of relaxation. Last Thursday’s recreation was uncharacteristic of this 12 months’s Bills crew, which has averted turnovers and dumb penalties, however did not accomplish that within the loss to the Jets. I am keen to consider the Bills simply laid an egg and will likely be higher of their subsequent recreation, which is able to possible characteristic the Bills debut of Kelvin Benjamin. And the Saints should lose once more in some unspecified time in the future, proper?
Aaron Schatz, editor-in-chief of Football Outsiders: Cowboys over Falcons. The Cowboys have moved as much as eighth within the Football Outsiders DVOA scores. The Falcons are 19th. Yet the road of Atlanta minus-Three would point out that Vegas thinks these two groups are almost equal. Even if Ezekiel Elliott loses his suspension enchantment and may’t play Sunday, his loss would not fairly make up the present distinction between these groups. And if Elliott’s suspension nonetheless would not begin this week? The Cowboys must be favored, even on the street.
Mike Sando, senior NFL author: Bills over Saints. I will take the Bills to bounce again at house towards New Orleans in a recreation that might characteristic chilly temperatures and rain. That’s no knock on the Saints, nonetheless. They’ll win 10 to 13 video games this season so long as they maintain permitting underneath 22 factors per recreation. That has been their observe document within the Sean Payton-Drew Brees period.
Field Yates, NFL Insider: Chargers over Jaguars. The Jacksonville protection is ferocious — it has allowed 9 or fewer factors in 5 of eight video games this season — that a lot is for sure. But towards an offense that also goals to grind out yards on the bottom and have quarterback Blake Bortles play rigorously, the Chargers possible will not want a recreation stuffed with sustained drives to win; 24 factors might do it. Los Angeles will likely be rested coming off of its bye.
Fill within the clean: I might give the Rams a __ % likelihood to win the NFC West.
Bowen: 50 %. The Rams are taking part in actually good soccer proper now and the event of Jared Goff in Sean McVay’s offense is a good instance of teaching on the highest degree. But I am not going to promote on the Seahawks simply but. Seattle received the primary head-to-head matchup in L.A. and Pete Carroll has historically made sturdy changes within the second half of the season to repair (or cowl up) points.
Graziano: 60 %. The head-to-head end result apart, Los Angeles deserves to be the favourite at this level. The Rams are a much more dynamic offense (not that that is saying a lot), they usually’re one of many few groups within the league with a front-seven difference-maker dominating sufficient to make Seattle say, “Wow! I wish we had that guy.” Aaron Donald breaking up offensive traces up entrance, Goff consuming up McVay’s playbook … the Rams are legit. The Seahawks’ addition of left deal with Duane Brown is large, however Seattle’s protection simply is not what it was. When would the Seahawks ever have given away a late lead like they did to Washington on Sunday?
Schatz: 65 %. The Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation really has the chances barely increased. I have been driving the Rams bandwagon since April, however by no means in my wildest creativeness did I feel we’d be speaking concerning the Rams as a attainable No. 1 seed. According to our DVOA scores, they’re now the No. 1 crew within the NFL this season, ranked within the high 10 in all three phases of the sport.
Sando: 51 %. The Rams have been higher than the Seahawks this season and could possibly be higher in the long run. Seattle did win the matchup in Los Angeles; a lot might hinge on the rematch. I will be watching over the second half of the season to see how Goff performs late in fourth quarters with video games on the road. He has had two possibilities this season, throwing a decide towards Washington and arising simply quick towards the Seahawks. His day could possibly be coming — in Seattle?
Yates: 50 %. The one-game lead helps, however what issues extra is that the Rams have so lots of the substances to maintain success and in addition are taking part in terrific situational soccer. They have a balanced offensive badault and a quick and aggressive protection. Seattle historically heats up within the second half of the season and already secured a win towards the Rams in L.A., making this a 50-50 toss-up.
Who’s your decide to be the largest fantasy flop this weekend?
Bowen: Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers. In the 2 video games with Brett Hundley beginning at quarterback for Green Bay, Nelson has been held to only 5 receptions on 13 targets for 48 yards. And he has failed to search out the top zone. The Packers’ name sheet has been minimize down, Hundley remains to be exhibiting indicators of inexperience within the pocket and the quick pbading recreation would not create upper-tier fantasy manufacturing. I do not count on that to vary this Sunday towards a Bears protection that is flying across the area on tape proper now.
Graziano: Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers This badumes the league would not hand out a suspension to Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who was ejected from Sunday’s recreation towards the Bengals for combating. (I do not badume it is going to.) Assuming full energy, Jacksonville’s go protection is a monster, bringing strain up entrance and locking issues down on the again finish with these guys within the secondary. The Jags are permitting a league-low 6.9 fantasy factors per recreation to quarterbacks and a league-low 22.9 fantasy factors per recreation to extensive receivers. I am downgrading Allen, Philip Rivers and anyone within the Chargers’ pbading recreation this week.
Schatz: Adrian Peterson, RB, Cardinals. Yes, Arizona desires to trip Peterson with Carson Palmer out. But the Seahawks are the No. 6 protection within the league relating to stopping fantasy factors to operating backs. If Seattle can take an early lead, the sport script fully takes Peterson out.
Sando: Kirk Cousins, QB, Redskins. The Redskins’ unbelievable end at Seattle boosted his stats considerably in Week 9, however with so many Washington gamers injured, we should always count on powerful sledding for Cousins towards a formidable Minnesota protection.
Yates: Dion Lewis, RB, Patriots. I will look previous Week 9 for the Broncos’ run protection, which was the final to give up a landing in 2017 (Philadelphia had three in Week 9, nonetheless). Playing at house, I consider the Broncos’ run protection will likely be a better facsimile to what it was in the course of the first seven video games of the season: dominant. Lewis’ function has ballooned of late, however this will likely be powerful sledding towards the Broncos.
Outside of Hue Jackson and Chuck Pagano — who appear to perpetually be on the new seat — which NFL coach must be in probably the most bother?
Bowen: Dirk Koetter, Buccaneers. The No. 1 job of the pinnacle coach — at any degree of soccer — is to construct the correct crew tradition. That reveals within the consideration to element, method, fundamentals and self-discipline that carries over to the sphere. The Bucs have loads of expertise and made key offseason additions. But at 2-6, with a crew that lacks a real id, Koetter must be held accountable.
Graziano: Dirk Koetter, Buccaneers. Obviously, the state of affairs with the Giants is a large mess, however Ben McAdoo did go 11-5 final 12 months and the Giants have a historical past of being affected person with coaches. Heck, Ray Handley acquired two complete years. Bucs possession does not have such a historical past, and I ponder if Koetter is the primary coach to be let go this season. Tampa Bay had extraordinarily excessive hopes for this season, and if you promote a man from offensive coordinator to go coach since you like his relationship with the younger quarterback, he is in bother if the quarterback would not advance rapidly.
Schatz: Marvin Lewis, Bengals. Cincinnati is totally stagnant. The Bengals held on to Lewis by a whole success cycle, and at the moment are at a down level. This can be an excellent time to carry on a head coach who can develop younger offensive gamers, work with the offensive line and rebuild the offense round Joe Mixon and John Ross.
Sando: Ben McAdoo, Giants. This holds particularly if the Giants seem inept in shedding at San Francisco in Week 10. A house loss to the Jets would equally downgrade Dirk Koetter in Tampa, however I might minimize him a bit slack as a result of Jameis Winston has been harm for a number of weeks.
Yates: Dirk Koetter, Buccaneers. Tampa Bay entered this season with important aspirations as Winston entered his third professional marketing campaign and the offense profiled as explosive with the additions of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard, amongst others. The crew has cratered to 2-6 as Winston offers with a shoulder damage. Very little has gone proper up to now this 12 months in Tampa.
Pick a fringe fantasy participant who must be began in Week 10.
Bowen: Josh McCown, QB, Jets. In his previous three video games, McCown has accomplished 71.Three % of his pbades for 606 yards and 6 touchdowns. He additionally has rushed for 2 scores over that span. For fantasy managers on the lookout for a stable streaming possibility on the place, I like McCown towards a subpar Bucs protection that is giving up a mean of 18.9 fantasy factors per recreation to opposing quarterbacks (26th total).
Graziano: Orleans Darkwa, RB, Giants. Darkwa appears to be the clear No. 1 possibility within the operating recreation for the reeling Giants, and this week they play the 49ers, who’re permitting probably the most fantasy factors per recreation within the league to operating backs. He ran the ball very effectively early in final week’s loss to the Rams, which acquired out of hand rapidly and become a unfavourable recreation script for a crew attempting to run the ball. That’s not more likely to occur towards the winless 49ers, who might clearly beat the 1-7 Giants however aren’t more likely to blow them out.
Schatz: Eric Decker, WR, Titans. Decker has a pleasant setup towards a Cincinnati protection that performs effectively towards exterior receivers, however is final in DVOA towards slot receivers.
Sando: Robert Woods, WR, Rams. Just over 25 % of ESPN fantasy homeowners had Woods on their rosters popping out of Week 9. That share is certain to rise after Woods put up 22 factors towards the Giants. He has 19 catches over the Rams’ previous 4 video games and now faces Houston.
Yates: C.J. Beathard, QB, 49ers. How about San Francisco’s quarterback? For starters, he has proven himself to have good athletic capability, resulting in 86 speeding yards and two speeding touchdowns in three begins, serving to to lift his ground. But the matchup can be excellent, because the Giants have allowed 14 pbading touchdowns and greater than 1,600 pbading yards of their previous 5 video games.
What was probably the most memorable play of the primary half of the season?
Bowen: I will return to Week 5 with Jalen Ramsey’s interception of Ben Roethlisberger. Amazing stuff. Widen with the discharge of the tight finish, shut on the throw and break in entrance to complete? Come on, what number of defensive backs really get better there and make the play? Ramsey is a star, the way forward for the league on the cornerback place. And he performs with a swagger that reveals up on each single snap. I might love to educate this man.
Graziano: Unfortunately, for me, it is the play on which Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone. This NFL season has been outlined by the damage absences of a few of its largest stars, and a second half is about to unfold with out Rodgers, J.J. Watt, Odell Beckham Jr., Deshaun Watson, David Johnson, Julian Edelman, Joe Thomas, Jason Peters or Eric Berry, to call a number of. Rodgers’ damage, from my perspective, is the image of a tricky season. There are all the time accidents, however this 12 months the bug appears to be focusing on a few of the most enjoyable and thrilling gamers to look at.
Schatz: I am going all the best way again to Week 1 for Tyreek Hill’s 75-yard landing reception towards a very blown protection by the Patriots. It was an announcement that Alex Smith was going to throw deep a bit extra usually this 12 months, and that the Chiefs’ offense could possibly be severely harmful regardless of reducing Jeremy Maclin. It was additionally an enormous, clear signal that one thing was very mistaken with the communication in New England’s protection. Plus, large Hill performs are all the time enjoyable to look at.
Sando: Tom Brady in some way discovering Brandin Cooks alongside the left aspect of the top zone in Foxborough to improbably beat the Texans in Week Three. The whole drive defied logic, however that throw, in that state of affairs? The 25-yard strike modified the Patriots’ win likelihood from 20 % to 98 %, the most important one-play shift within the NFL this season.
Yates: A Week Three win for Philadelphia was clinched by a 61-yard area aim by kicker Jake Elliott, who nailed the booming kick because the clock expired in regulation time, giving the Eagles a three-point win towards the Giants. That kicked off (no pun supposed) what’s at the moment a seven-game successful streak and felt like a launching level for what has turn into one of the best crew in soccer. It was an unlikely kick — any 60-plus-yard kick is a large feat — by an unlikely kicker (it was simply Elliott’s second recreation in Philadelphia) and helped kick-start an unimaginable stretch of soccer by the Eagles.